David

Curator of politics, IT, EVs, photography, science, humor. "One nation indivisible." To the crazy ones who change the world. He/Him.

[Hemant Mehta @hemantmehta]

Mike Lee is so close to figuring out why the government shouldn’t be weighing in on religion.

[David @tdave67]

@SawyerMerritt @SpaceX Suggested read:

[George Noble @gnoble79]

This is the most OUTRAGEOUS deal I've seen in my 45 years on Wall Street.

SpaceX just disclosed Musk's new compensation package:

He gets up to 200 million super-voting shares if SpaceX hits a $7.5 trillion valuation, establishes a permanent human settlement of at least ONE MILLION people on Mars, and deploys roughly 100 terawatts of space-based computing power.

Let me put the 100 terawatts in perspective:

The entire electricity generation capacity of the United States is around 1.2 terawatts. The comp plan asks Musk to build more than 80x America's entire power grid... in orbit.

This is a science fiction screenplay that somehow landed in front of the SEC.

But here's why it actually matters for your portfolio...

The S-1 reportedly claims a $28.5 trillion total addressable market, with over 90 percent attributed to AI. CapeFearAdvisors flagged this one cleanly: when Palantir went public, it disclosed a $119 billion TAM and the SEC reviewed and accepted it.

SpaceX is claiming a market roughly 240x BIGGER.

Now let's talk about what is actually being sold here:

Reported 2025 revenue is approximately $15.5 billion. Starlink delivers around $11 billion of that with healthy margins, and the launch business is genuinely dominant. The problem is xAI - the AI piece doing all the heavy lifting in the trillion-dollar valuation pitch.

xAI generated just $210 million of revenue in the first 3 quarters of 2025 while burning through $9.5 billion in cash.

Ben Brey and Rupert Mitchell - a former Fidelity portfolio manager and a former head of equity capital markets at Goldman and Citi between them - ran a serious discounted cash flow on the actual operating businesses and arrived at roughly $400 billion. Lawrence Fossi covered their work recently and the math holds up.

The IPO is being marketed at $1.75 TRILLION.

The gap between what these businesses support and what Musk is asking the public to pay is roughly $1.35 trillion of pure narrative.

Then layer on what we just learned last week...

The New York Times investigation revealed Musk personally borrowed $500 million from SpaceX between 2018 and 2020 at rates as low as 1%, while bank prime rates sat around 5%. The same SpaceX has been used to bail out SolarCity, prop up Tesla during cash crunches, and absorb xAI when the AI losses became unmanageable.

This is the same playbook he's run for two decades.

Use a privately controlled entity as a personal piggy bank, and when the bills come due, find new investors to absorb the losses.

The IPO is structured to keep that game going FOREVER.

The Texas reincorporation strips away Delaware's fiduciary protections. Controlled-company status on the Nasdaq eliminates independent board requirements. And retail is being offered up to 30% of the offering (3x the normal allocation) because the institutions who actually do the math are quietly stepping away.

Here is the part that finishes the case for me:

Roughly $40 billion of the IPO proceeds are already spoken for before a single dollar reaches operations. About $23 billion retires SpaceX debt. Another $17 billion retires the high-interest debt sitting on xAI and X.

This raise is not funding the future. It's just plugging existing holes that retail investors will now own.

In my 45 years I've never seen a deal where the comp hurdle is colonizing another planet.

I've never seen a disclosed TAM that exceeds verified comparables by two orders of magnitude.

I've never seen a company asking the public to fund the retirement of debt incurred by separate private entities controlled by the same individual.

Every red flag I've watched precede a major bust over four decades is sitting in this prospectus, in plain sight.

The Tesla mispricing is being repeated on a far larger scale.

And this time the bag is being handed directly to retail.

Don't be the one holding it.

[David @tdave67]

@NorthstarCharts But the gold bottom was in 2001, months AFTER this ratio chart topped.

[FFRF @FFRF]

No — “one Nation under God” is not who we’ve “always been.”

What has defined America from the beginning is religious freedom: a nation where people of every faith and no faith are equal citizens.

The government shouldn’t rewrite history to promote religion.

[David @tdave67]

@RepThomasMassie No, they refuse to raise revenue by taxing the rich with a progressive tax structure similar to the mid 20th century.

[David @tdave67]

@NFL_DovKleiman That’s the fault of the offensive coordinator, calling a play requiring catching the ball looking into the sun.

[David @tdave67]

@SidKhurana3607 Household income?

[Drew Savicki @DrewSav]

Utterly insane that the President is extremely unpopular and yet it would be an immense struggle for Dems to win even 230 seats in the House because the maps are so heavily rigged

[David @tdave67]

@SawyerMerritt First color I have seen that I would consider other than red.

[David @tdave67]

@crescatkevin @asymco Now do AAPL

[Brian Allen @allenanalysis]

Bayer is a German chemical company. They make Roundup. Roundup gives people non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Bayer has paid over $11 billion in cancer lawsuits.

This week, Congress is going to vote on a bill that gives Bayer permanent immunity from being sued by Americans who get cancer from their product.

Here is how it happened. 🧵

[JER @lifeof_jer]

https://t.co/ofucbVgkLV

[Tommy Vietor @TVietor08]

Pulling out of the Iran nuclear was a catastrophic mistake.

[David @tdave67]

@deedydas - photo doesn’t show door into garage
- garage stairs nowhere near aligned with first floor stairway

3/fin

[David @tdave67]

@deedydas - stairway ceiling needs to begin to rise at first step, but it’s under the primary bath for several steps.
- upstairs bath has no tub or shower
- primary bath plumbing stack has no space allocated on first floor. No way would it be that far away from main plumbing stack.

2/n

[David @tdave67]

@news_jul @ProjectLincoln @NBCNews @MeetThePress 33% of Americans are ignorant about how Trump is handling the war with Iran.

[David @tdave67]

@infobeautiful We’ve recently learned that the ear should be red on the real life side.

[David @tdave67]

@Malone_Wealth Do you have a chart where the x axis dates are readable?

[David @tdave67]

@Barchart If you limit history to 14 years, sure.