TechDev

Entrepreneur | #Bitcoin and crypto analysis

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Few signals have correlated with #Bitcoin's macro inflections as tightly as China's 10-year yield.

Local tops at major $BTC impulse tops.

Local CN10Y downtrend breaking with 3W RSI exceeding 50...

Began each of #Bitcoin's last 3 largest moves.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Now we find out if May 2023 ≈ Sep 2020 #Crypto

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

It’s not just #Bitcoin which suggests an early parabolic move.

#Altcoin cap / $BTC appears at an inflection point.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Expanded flats are brutal.

The market obliterates both sides before macro continuation.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Bband statement applies to $TOTAL

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Most didn’t expect a parabolic move at the last 20/200W EMA cross either.

Weekly Bollinger bands haven’t been tighter since. (Except late 2016).

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Crypto and NASDAQ to follow Nikkei to new highs imo.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Really interesting to observe the takes.

Some see it as bearish on crypto (recently outperformed).

Others see crypto’s fortune being told and an upcoming rotation.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

NIKKEI > NASDAQ > Crypto ?

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

https://t.co/RS46aRsepc

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

It's different than 2020.

And I think it's a different impulse wave.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

https://t.co/JeKcgbcDE8

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Eyes on $ETHBTC. Update this week.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Entire #altcoin market is 560 billion.

NVIDIA added 220 billion in 16 hours.

But “where will the money come from”?

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

Keep hearing "how can we reach new ATH before the end of the year? It's impossible."

About where I think we are now compared to our last impulse. Note that the S/R flip and retest at 10k took about 3 months to complete.

2 months later we had rallied 90% to new all time highs.

4 months after that we hit our top for the impulse- just a total of 6 months after completing the S/R flip and retest at 10k, and over 500% higher.

A couple things to note:

1. We haven't yet gotten a perfect retest of the black S/R level at 25.2k. Note that in 2020 we tested it and wicked below to complete the retest. This doesn't HAVE to happen, but it's certainly possible we haven't yet put in our local low for this retest. Regardless, downside should generally be limited from current levels if the thesis is valid.

2. While we know history doesn't necessarily repeat, it often rhymes- don't expect an exact time + price correlation, the movements should just be *similar*.

3. As stated in previous updates- the ascent on impulses only gets steeper as we move into a parabolic advance- meaning the rate of ascent you are seeing NOW should be the slowest rate of ascent of this entire move to new ATH. This is why such a rapid ascent to prior ATH is not just realistic but in fact expected if we are seeing the beginnings of a major impulse here. Note with both prior impulses of this cycle (3-14k and 10k-60k) bigger candles are seen the higher we climb.

Don't tell me it can't be done when it's literally been done before.

I'll see you all at new all time highs, likely sometime this year. $BTC

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Still not primary timeline idea.

Just an interesting observation for folks who prefer to look at Bitcoin in “cycles” of pointy tops.

Primary time-based idea below. Covered in issue # 18 with supporting evidence. Pub link in bio.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

https://t.co/q3IQlQp4X3

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Update: #Bitcoin on adjusted log time

Time = log(weeks)^3.44

Next period meets curve at 160-180K December 2023.

Observation based on a sample of 2.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Weekly #crypto cap Bbands haven’t been this tight with price above center since October 2016.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

This week I also reviewed the state of CN10Y/DXY and what it needs to show in the next few 3W candles.

Sub link in bio.