@deepakshenoy It'd of course provide a temporary relief. Plus it would discourage at least domestic players from bulking up on speculative positioning. NDF - onshore spreads will simply blow up in short-term. Medium term it'd adversely impact NDF as well as onshore market making by local banks
@deepakshenoy Sorry that was just an illustrative no. to demonstrate min cost (actual cost is higher due to implied USD funding cost involved). & Yes!- NDF arb is the intended nudge, to weaken one source of INR weakness.
@deepakshenoy 2/n ...much higher levels. So USD/INR swaps can never be a reasonable source of INR funding requirements (unless that's the only source available based on a bank's balance-sheet).
Also, a net effective b/s swap at 2.5% actually translates to an INR funding cost of >6%...
@deepakshenoy Sorry, you've overlooked the effect of USD funding cost in ur analysis...
Forward rates in USD/INR trade at a premium, i.e.- if USD-INR rates differential implies that forward premium should be, say, 1.5% (5.25%-3.75% for eg.), then in actual market- forwards trade at... 1/n
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