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🗓️ Nov 12, 2024 - AC Top Opinion (1U)
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W Michigan @ Bowling Gr / 𝟔:𝟒𝟎 𝐏𝐌 (𝐄𝐒𝐓)
Pick: W Michigan +10.5 (-120) / (Alt Spread)
📚 Analysis: We're backing Western Michigan for this conference matchup as they will look to bounce back. Bowling Green has a 4-5 record ATS this season, and they've really struggled lately, going 1-5 ATS in their last six games. When favored by more than a touchdown, they’re just 1-4 ATS, and at home, they’re sitting at 2-2 SU. The only time they covered a spread while favored by more than a touchdown was against an FCS team, Fordham, who is currently 1-9 on the year. Dating back to 2010, Western Michigan has a solid 5-3 record both SU and ATS in their last eight matchups. This game is definitely a revenge opportunity for Western Michigan after losing 34-10 to Bowling Green last year at home.
Bowling Green's O/U record stands at 3-6, and they’re just 1-3 at home, which shows they’re not scoring enough points in their own stadium. On the flip side, Western Michigan is 7-2 to the O/U and 3-2 on the road, averaging 25.4 points per game away and a solid 33.3 overall. They know how to put points on the board.
When it comes to scoring and rushing, Western Michigan has the edge, averaging 209.2 rushing yards per game. Their ground game will be key tonight. Both teams are 4-1 in conference play, but Western Michigan is just two spots behind Bowling Green in the MAC standings, making this game significant for both teams.
I believe it’s a good time to sell high on Bowling Green, who seems a bit overvalued, overrated and inconsistent. Plus, Western Michigan is ranked #2 in the FBS for the fewest penalties per game, averaging just 4 penalties overall per game and 3.4 on the road.
In my view, this spread feels a bit too large for a conference game that could easily come down to a field goal for either team.
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