Telemachus

Living the dream

[Telemachus @TelemachusModel]

I've gotten a bunch of questions recently on whether or not I'd be posting CBB plays this year. Figured it easiest to answer publicly.

My current plan is to not post plays publicly any longer.

The reasoning for that follows below...

1/x

[Telemachus @TelemachusModel]

Can confirm. https://t.co/RKhqjPHXGR will steal your money if you win.

[Elihu D Feustel @d_feustel]

https://t.co/37enN8Py6P is a stiff book. A player shared a story where he won 100k with parlays. BUSR has a "license to steal" rule where if they think you're sharp (whether you are or not) they can seize your winnings. Buyer beware.

[Telemachus @TelemachusModel]

@professor042 @EvanMiya He used to post his record publicly, right? All of a sudden I don't see it anymore...

[Telemachus @TelemachusModel]

Things that also take 1 minute to google:

- 1 to 5 year olds received SS benefits if their parents are disabled or deceased.
- Clerical errors and computer systems issues are real and likely explain meaningful portions of the other two categories.
- DOGE repeatedly makes false claims or claims they later retract. One example: https://t.co/pXFgiA55OP

More importantly: literally no one is against fraud or government waste. What is DOGE trying to accomplish by embellishing and lying about things?

[Telemachus @TelemachusModel]

@BigBuckHunterrr @ShipTheJustice @RufusPeabody @mm_____7634 @CirclesOffHQ I was completely in the dark until after posting that. I'm filled in now and there will be no more pot stirring.

[Telemachus @TelemachusModel]

@reggie_rowdy @robpizzola It's similar but not nearly as dramatic

[Telemachus @TelemachusModel]

@robpizzola recently mentioned pros were struggling to win at cbb this year. Let's take a look at market efficiency for Totals. Here's the avg absolute mean error for both the opener (top) and close (bottom) by year.

If my numbers are right*, the market opener this year is *significantly* more accurate than the close from all recent years. 👀

* These numbers exclude some games where I don't generate predictions
* Someone double-check my numbers, please.

[Telemachus @TelemachusModel]

@MikeR_RAS Completely agree that the last few years should've been beneficial for those who do mostly subjective stuff.

[Telemachus @TelemachusModel]

@JonFendler Certainly depends on what % edge you think you have and if your projections are biased in any way, but I'd say 1000 minimum and likely more than that.

[Telemachus @TelemachusModel]

@d_feustel @0mamawembanyama The close is the same

[Telemachus @TelemachusModel]

@d_feustel @0mamawembanyama https://t.co/jhmeSoqoba

[Telemachus @TelemachusModel]

@Ias0801 @robpizzola It's a simple median of openers from select books. Some of the increased efficiency could be explained by the market being more established before certain books open a number. But that's not enough to explain why this year's open is more efficient than last year's close.

[Telemachus @TelemachusModel]

@CorneredMarket @robpizzola Haven't tested but my guess is yes.

[Telemachus @TelemachusModel]

@WazBettorIQ @robpizzola There's enough games each season that outliers shouldn't be doing too much work. AAME isn't perfect but I doubt it's misleading here. Feel free to suggest a better method though.

[Telemachus @TelemachusModel]

@JonFendler Sample size is way too small to draw any conclusions there, fwiw.

[Telemachus @TelemachusModel]

1. The market did a great job of getting the scoring environment right this year. The overall avg mean error is closer to 0 than most other years.
2. There have been a lot of shocks to the system in recent years (2019: 3 pt line change, 2020/21: covid, 2022: portal + charge rule change part1, 2023: portal + charge rule change part 2, 2019-2023: drastic increase in overall off efficiency). This year was relatively quiet as far as shocks go.
3. Noise.

[Telemachus @TelemachusModel]

@calvinridley73 @rgarcia57 @Ias0801 @robpizzola 1. Agree
2. Maybe?
3. Disagree. The close this year still improved dramatically over the open. And, I think most books use the close from previous games as input to future openers.
4. Strong agree.

[Telemachus @TelemachusModel]

This assumes that there's no other player in the space willing to bet into the places they have biases. Over the past 2 years, if they (or anyone else) moved the market in a way we disagreed with, we happily bet into it. Together we should've made the market more efficient.

I have to image the opposite is true too. Now there are fewer people willing to bet into the places where I have biases.

Just playing devil's advocate here, FWIW. I'm not saying you're definitely wrong.

[Telemachus @TelemachusModel]

@calvinridley73 https://t.co/jhmeSoqoba

[Telemachus @TelemachusModel]

@Ias0801 @robpizzola It's a simple median of openers from select books. Some of the increased efficiency could be explained by the market being more established before certain books open a number. But that's not enough to explain why this year's open is more efficient than last year's close.

[Telemachus @TelemachusModel]

Give me your quibbles! There's a reason why I say "theoretically".

One explanation for increased efficiency this year could be that they were spending a bunch of money making the market less efficient (either intentional or unintentional). Given what I know about their performance in previous years and their betting pattern, I don't think that is the case but I could be wrong.

[Telemachus @TelemachusModel]

@Ias0801 @robpizzola It's a simple median of openers from select books. Some of the increased efficiency could be explained by the market being more established before certain books open a number. But that's not enough to explain why this year's open is more efficient than last year's close.