ATR

Visité 60+ países, trabajé con 70, viví en 3. ONGs, emergencias, logística y software inclusión financiera. Uruguayo, colorado y batllista (en ese orden).

[ATR @TerraRompani]

@urypatriot @CarlosMaslaton Ni pro ni anti, igual que el PARLAMENTO que votó la Ley de Indeseables, 1932.

Hay que leerlos. No entendían al inmigrante que venía sin ganas de trabajar, a vivir del Estado de Bienestar. O al universitario militante sin interés en graduarse. Nada que ver con raza.

Se agradece.

[ATR @TerraRompani]

@urypatriot @CarlosMaslaton Che, yo tampoco estoy de acuerdo, pero si vas a andar usando términos antisemistas te agradecería te cambies la foto de perfil.

Ese es mi bisabuelo y la institutriz a la que confiaba el cuidado de sus nietos era una refugiada/emigrante judía.

[ATR @TerraRompani]

@matiasfazioaz @JuanchiHounie Te sorprenderías cuántos neutrales saben que Brasil son 200M, ustedes 45M y nosotros 3M.

El más grande Brasil, el más eficaz Uruguay.

Top, 3/4 y 5/7 suena razonable. Son el chorizo del medio que nos comemos en dos panes y cada 25 años les damos la vuelta en casa.

[ATR @TerraRompani]

@JuanchiHounie @SeArreglaMundo Muy bueno Juanchi.

Te tiro una punta de investigación sobre ese partido: cómo influyó en el desarrollo del fútbol italiano como lo conocemos a través de la pluma de Gianni Brera.

https://t.co/8MoPrZU1cq

[ATR @TerraRompani]

@AireRico995 @JorgeBalmelli @DiegoZas Siempre buscándole el pelo al huevo para no aumentar las penas.

La forma más eficaz de aumentar la probabilidad de que los agarren también son las penas.

Nada que desmotive más que saber que en dos meses vuelve a estar suelto o que le dan domiciliar, etc. Hamster en la rueda.

[ATR @TerraRompani]

@realroseceline That's why I don't invest in healthcare, or anything were the ups and downs are not driven by the business but the current mood, priorities and agendas of those temporarily in power (e.g. energy, defence).

Sectors to trade if you have the appetite and insight, not to invest.

[ATR @TerraRompani]

@maguirreh Curiosamente me aparece este post inmediatamente después de este comentario sobre las propuestas de OpenAI para aplacar a los aparatos burocráticos reordenando el mundo por anticipado.

Impuesto a los robots, semana laboral reducida, etc, etc. 👇

https://t.co/x32noypqFp

[Martin Varsavsky @martinvars]

OpenAI just published a 13-page blueprint for the AI age.

Public wealth funds. Robot taxes. Auto-scaling entitlements tied to “displacement metrics.” A four-day workweek at full pay.
Sam Altman calls it a new social contract on the scale of the Progressive Era or the New Deal.

But if you read it carefully, you see something much simpler:
The input variable changed. The output didn’t.

A new technology appears. The response is always the same: build a bureaucracy, create a tax, stand up an agency, define beneficiaries, lock it in permanently.
We’ve seen this before.

With climate policy, much of Europe built complex regulatory systems that increased costs locally while emissions shifted elsewhere. Carbon leakage replaced real reduction. A compliance industry flourished. The structure grew. The problem adapted.
Now AI is getting the same treatment.
Build the fund before the gains exist. Design the redistribution before understanding who benefits. Create institutions that depend on the AI economy continuing, and call that stability.

This is not about whether AI will be disruptive. It will be.

The real question is how societies respond to that disruption.

There are two models.

The first trusts decentralized competition. Prices fall as capability rises. Productivity gains spread through markets. New industries emerge that nobody predicted. That is what happened with electricity, with computing, with the internet. Nobody designed a public wealth fund to distribute the gains from any of them. The gains distributed themselves through falling costs and new work.

The second trusts centralized management. Pre-allocate gains before they materialize. Build permanent structures to manage outcomes. Align incentives between large players and regulators so the system holds together. This model is not chosen because it is proven to work. It is chosen because it is structurally stable. Bureaucracies persist. Programs expand. Temporary measures become permanent.

What is actually happening here is more pragmatic than ideological. Frontier AI companies are aligning early with governments. In exchange for permission to operate at scale, they support frameworks that institutionalize redistribution and oversight. It is a rational strategy.
But let’s be clear about what it produces: a system where the most powerful technology in history is developed inside a tightly coupled loop of large companies and large governments. That may reduce certain risks. It also reduces dynamism.
The real divide in AI policy is not left versus right. It is between those who believe abundance is best distributed through open competition and those who believe it must be centrally managed from the start.
History doesn’t say the second model fails.
It says it calcifies.

And when it does, the thing it tends to suffocate is exactly what created the abundance in the first place.

[ATR @TerraRompani]

@realroseceline @calvinblissett Buying cashews in Floripa. Pix, but on Pago terminal. The guy explains how great it is for business because on the back of his sales record they lend him for stock... Know the cashflows and credit risk management is a piece of cake.

AMZN ain't doing that ever in BR. I own both.

[ATR @TerraRompani]

@realroseceline I crossed out $DIS the day I saw them deliberately overcompensating against any bias accusation.

Scandinavian couple, two kids and a baby. They took the dad away for separate check and insisted on the mum picking up the sleeping baby so they could check the pram throughly. Nuts.

[ATR @TerraRompani]

@aljrico Even if Tesla runs it, what stops Tesla owners tapping into the Uber demand?

Why would Tesla do anything to avert that if it helps people buying Teslas?

Waymo is different, you aren't going to incur the CAPEX to process through Uber, but Tesla & Uber aren't mutually exclusive

[ATR @TerraRompani]

@DiegoZas Me acuerdo de verlos arrancar (rugby) con @JuanchiHounie pre revolución medios y público siempre conectado. "Qué huevos... pero se ve les gusta y se divierten" pensé

Remaron, encontraron su espacio, nos divirtieron mucho y nos informaron desde sus perspectivas

Felicitaciones 🫂

[ATR @TerraRompani]

@BillAckman @elonmusk @SpaceX @SECGov @Tesla SPAR II is mostly a binding future commitment to you

You invest $4Bn regardless of price. Do you also get the same # of SPARs regardless of price?

Interesting idea, but surely TSLA retail investors can get allocation in other setups? I do like that, be it for SpaceX or xAI.

[ATR @TerraRompani]

@BillAckman @elonmusk @SpaceX @SECGov @Tesla How long for SPARs to be executed at set price? I'd expect funds holding onto their "passive investor" SPARs and then dumping them for maximum profit.

Not strictly dilution, no built in haircut from $10 to ~$6, but similar see-sawing as we saw with SPACs due to float changing.

[ATR @TerraRompani]

@realroseceline Uber will continue to be the biggest platform with the most data and utilization. Nobody is deleting their uber app anytime soon.

Upstart fleets trying to scale and compete independently would get crushed. Uber has to create an ecosystem where the technology and the Capex meet.

[ATR @TerraRompani]

@realroseceline How is that not a case of economies of scale shared?

They get excellent terms for those who want to operate in their grid and generate some income.

You are just removing the driver from the equation. Gradually, surgically, as and when needed, with a wealth of data to execute

[ATR @TerraRompani]

@realroseceline Beyond owning the customer and data globally, Uber learned from opening markets and creating ecosystems (vehicle, financing, insurance, maintenance) to get drivers on the road, inc fleet investors who subcontract driving

What stops them getting 3rd-parties to invest in AV fleet?

[ATR @TerraRompani]

@realroseceline This is why I hate dividends given the 30% resident alien tax. Give me buybacks or reinvestment instead.

[ATR @TerraRompani]

@realroseceline @Reaganxrose I'm surprised that you are extrapolating what could happen in SF and a couple other places to the whole world.

To me the likely outcome isn't paying a middleman but that Tesla buys uber (global distribution + data) and gradually canibalises itself with better unit economics.

[ATR @TerraRompani]

@JuanchiHounie Vamo' arriba Juanchi.

Qué lindo muro que te queda acá para inspirarte... si hasta te putean cariñosamente.

Abrazo grande 🫂