Harsh Pathak

Ex-Investment Banker | A Curious Learner | Views are personal and not recos.

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

HFCL ALL TGTs HIT - Up 130% since posted.

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

HFCL - TechnoFunda (TF) Playbook

Preform foray: HFCL has now approved a ₹580 crore preform manufacturing plant via subsidiary HFCL Technologies Pvt. Ltd.; planned capacity is ~300–310 MTPA, with commissioning targeted by July 2029.

Management had earlier said preform was a strategic backward-integration move to secure raw material for its fast-expanding optical fibre/OFC business.
Co. is targeting ₹3,500 cr OFC revenue in FY27.

Market size: The global fiber-optic preform market is estimated at US$12.4 billion by 2032.

Note: This is only for educational purposes and is not a buy/hold/sell recommendation.

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

RATEGAIN UP 32% IN 1.5 MONTHS!!

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

RATEGAIN TECH - TECHNOFUNDA PLAYBOOK

Mcap: ~ 8551 Cr | PE: ~38.7 | ROCE ~13.7%C | ROE ~ 12%

VERY STRONG PEAD CANDIDATE DUE TO RESULTS:

YoY Performance (Mar ’26 vs Mar ’25):
Sales: ₹716 Cr (vs ₹261 Cr) ⇡ 174%
EBITDA: ₹147 Cr (vs ₹60.6 Cr) ⇡ 143%
Net Profit: ₹70.0 Cr (vs ₹54.8 Cr) ⇡ 28%
EPS: ₹5.92 (vs ₹4.64) ⇡ 28%

QoQ Performance (Mar ’26 vs Dec ’25):
Sales: ₹716 Cr (vs ₹540 Cr) ⇡ 33%
EBITDA: ₹147 Cr (vs ₹87.1 Cr) ⇡ 69%
Net Profit: ₹70.0 Cr (vs ₹26.4 Cr) ⇡ 165%
EPS: ₹5.92 (vs ₹2.24) ⇡ 164%

ADD THIS TO YOUR WATCHLIST!

Note: This is only for educational purposes and is not a buy/hold/sell recommendation.

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

PSP Projects - TechnoFunda Playbook

PSP Projects is no longer just a standalone EPC contractor. The big trigger is that Adani Infra has entered the cap table, acquiring a 21.83% stake through a block deal worth ~₹554 crore at ₹640/share. Earlier, Adani Infra had signed a deal to acquire up to 30.07% stake in PSP from promoter Prahaladbhai S Patel.

That matters because PSP now sits inside the broader Adani infrastructure ecosystem - a group aggressively scaling across airports, roads, ports, data centers, energy, logistics, real estate and large infra development.

PSP itself brings strong execution credentials: it has built marquee projects like Surat Diamond Bourse , IIM Ahmedabad and has operated across industrial, institutional, residential and government infrastructure projects.

The simple thesis: PSP gets execution DNA + Adani’s infra ambition.

If Adani starts using PSP as an execution platform for its infra pipeline, the market may stop valuing it like a normal EPC contractor and start seeing it as an Adani-linked infra proxy.

This is the kind of setup where ownership change itself becomes the funda trigger.

Add this to your watchlist!!

Note: The chart attached is only for educational purposes and is not a buy/hold/sell reco.

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

@ishmohit1 Zero returns in the past 7 years.
Classic case study of a tech cycle.

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

TGT HIT 25% IN JAY BHARAT MARUTI!!

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

JAY BHARAT MARUTI - TF PLAYBOOK

Solid Q4FY26 Good QoQ and YoY uptick across all parameters

Rev at 766cr vs 610cr, Q3 at 645cr
PBT at 55cr vs 29cr, Q3 at 28cr
PAT at 80cr vs 21cr, Q3 at 18cr

The stock is not moving in isolation. One of the clearest fundamental triggers is the sharp recovery in Maruti Suzuki sales, which matters because this company sits directly in the Maruti ecosystem.

Maruti’s monthly sales trend has been strong:
Jan 2026: 236,963 units (+11.6% YoY)
Feb 2026: 213,995 units (+7.3% YoY)
Mar 2026: 225,251 units (+16.7% YoY)
Apr 2026: 239,646 units (+33.3% YoY)
May 2026: 242,688 units (+34.8% YoY)

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Note: This is only for educational purposes and is not a buy/hold/sell recommendation.

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

WABAG UP 50% since posted!

Price tells the funda trigger way before, in WABAG the upcoming trigger was the large order wins which was anticipated by the price way before the actual announcement.

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

VA Tech Wabag - TechnoFunda Playbook

Wabag is not just a water EPC company. It is a technology-first global water solutions provider sitting at the intersection of water security, industrial capex, desalination, reuse, and the next big manufacturing themes - data centers, semiconductors, solar manufacturing, green hydrogen and CBG.

The numbers already show operating strength. 9M FY26 revenue stood at ~₹2,530 crore, up 18.3% YoY, with EBITDA at ~₹347 crore and PAT at ~₹242 crore. EBITDA margin remained strong at 13.7%, in line with management’s guided 13-15% band.

The real comfort is visibility. Current order book is ₹16,300+ crore, almost 4x revenue, with a balanced mix of 64% EPC and 36% O&M. O&M already contributes 18% of revenue, giving Wabag a longer-duration, recurring-revenue flavour beyond pure project execution.

The balance sheet is another key differentiator: net cash positive for 12 consecutive quarters, with ~₹1,006 crore net cash excluding HAM borrowing, and working capital days improved to 101 days.

The future trigger is the “industrial water” pivot. Management specifically highlighted opportunities in ultra-pure water for solar cells, semiconductors and green hydrogen, plus high water-use sectors like data centers, where Wabag’s reuse and ZLD capabilities become critical.

It has already secured a breakthrough UPW + ETP + ZLD order for a solar cell manufacturing facility and is actively engaging with semiconductor, green hydrogen and data center developers.

In short: Wabag is quietly moving from municipal water infra to becoming a water-tech backbone for India’s high-growth manufacturing capex cycle.

Note: This is only for educational purposes and is not a buy/hold/sell recommendation.

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

GLAND PHARMA - TECHNOFUNDA TRIGGER

3 Yr monthly breakout after long accumulation.

Gland Pharma is no longer just a generic injectables story. The real transition is that CDMO is now becoming a core growth engine, already contributing 46% of consolidated revenues.

The CDMO pipeline is getting deeper across oncology, peptides and complex injectables, with one major project expected to commercialize in FY28, carrying $25–30 million annual revenue potential.

The biggest hidden optionality is GLP-1.

Gland has already built 140 million units of cartridge capacity, signed 8 GLP-1 contracts, and expects another 6–7 contracts to be added soon.

The most interesting part: management has not included GLP-1 contribution in FY27 guidance due to timeline uncertainty.

That means GLP-1 is not base case right now. It is pure medium-term upside optionality.

The second trigger is Cenexi turnaround.

Cenexi, the French sterile injectables CDMO acquired in 2023, was loss-making earlier but turned EBITDA positive in Q3FY26 and continued that momentum in Q4FY26.

Current Cenexi EBITDA margin is only 1–2%, but management is targeting mid-to-high single digit EBITDA margin in FY27 and mid-teens margin over the medium term.

Since Cenexi contributes more than 25% of consolidated revenue, even a small margin improvement here can meaningfully lift Gland’s consolidated margin profile.

Management guidance is also clear:
FY27 revenue growth: 12–13%
FY28 revenue growth: ~15%
FY29 revenue growth: 19–20%
Consolidated margin: ~25%
Base business margin: 33–35%

So the setup is simple:
CDMO scaling + GLP-1 optionality + Cenexi turnaround + visible margin guidance.

ADD THIS TO YOUR WATCHLIST!!

Note: This is only for educational purposes and is not a buy/hold/sell recommendation.

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

BAJAJ HEALTHCARE - TECHNOFUNDA TRIGGER

FIRST IN INDIA TO SECURE SEC RECOMMENDATION FOR CENOBAMATE TABLETS

Bajaj Healthcare has become the first company in India to secure SEC (CDSCO) recommendation for the manufacure and marketing of Cenobamate Tablets.

Recommendation covers strengths of 12.5 mg, 25 mg, 50 mg, 100 mg, 150 mg and 200 mg.

Cenobamate is a next-generation anti-seizure medicine used for treating partial-onset seizures in adults.

Clinical studies have demonstrated significant seizure reduction and high seizure-free rates in patients with inadequately controlled epilepsy.

The recommendation marks a key regulatory milestone and strengthens Bajaj Healthcare's specialty CNS portfolio.

This is big for Bajaj healthcare as it will become a First-mover advantage in India and progress toward commercialisation of a differentiated CNS therapy.

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Note: This is only for educational purposes and it not a buy/hold/sell reco.

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

@itsTarH Absolutely agreed 100%
Chase the fundamentals instead of the price.

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

@LearningEleven It’s a “Moye Moye” moment 🤣
I can hear the song without even listening to it :p

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

@MayankKapur16 Thanks for acknowledging the request team invescom, I don’t know if you remember but I was the one who commented on the Yash HV video for providing the excel sheets. Glad and kudos for providing 🍾🤝

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

MOTISONS JEWELLERS - TF PLAYBOOK

The biggest trigger here is the ₹150 crore QIP allotment.

Motisons has allotted 13.57 crore equity shares at ₹11.05/share, raising ₹149.99 crore from qualified institutional buyers. The issue was priced at a 4.57% discount to the floor price of ₹11.58/share.

The interesting part is the investor mix.

Key allottees above 5% of the issue:

Pine Oak Global Fund - 2.26 crore shares, 16.67% of issue

Mint Focused Growth Fund PCC - Cell 1 - 2.26 crore shares, 16.67%

Saint Capital Fund - 2.26 crore shares / 16.67%

Nova Global Opportunities Fund PCC - Touchstone - 1.86 crore shares / 13.67%

Compact Structure Fund - 1.36 crore shares / 10.00%

Tiger Strategies Fund-I - 90.50 lakh shares / 6.67%

Together, these six investors took 80.33% of the entire QIP, which means the raise was highly concentrated among a few large institutional buyers.

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Note: This is only for educational purposes and is not a buy/hold/sell recommendation.

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

Commentary on Global Water treatment and Wastewater treatment Market opportunity from @vatechwabag Chairman & MD - Rajiv Mittal:

"This is the region which we are operating. And if you put all this together, this is almost 75 billion to 100 billion in next five to seven years is the opportunity"

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

@shiladitya4u TRUBBLE (Trouble) fits appropriately lol 😝

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

@karanshah137 This is insaneeee 🤣😭

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

@RakJhun Can you pls also explain exactly how is this a proxy for AI & DCs. Pardon me but the commentary given by choice doesn’t make any sense.

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

@LearningEleven 🙇🏼🙇🏼

[DogeDesigner @cb_doge]

World's First Trillionaire

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

Strong reversal in the markets today.

Let's see what the weekend brings us :)

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

The 2nd week of June has been worser than the certain weeks of Apr and May with the broader market showing clear signs of weakness as selling pressure continues.

Let's see how this week ends.

Data courtesy: @itsTarH

[Harsh Pathak @TF_path]

JAY BHARAT MARUTI - TF PLAYBOOK

Solid Q4FY26 Good QoQ and YoY uptick across all parameters

Rev at 766cr vs 610cr, Q3 at 645cr
PBT at 55cr vs 29cr, Q3 at 28cr
PAT at 80cr vs 21cr, Q3 at 18cr

The stock is not moving in isolation. One of the clearest fundamental triggers is the sharp recovery in Maruti Suzuki sales, which matters because this company sits directly in the Maruti ecosystem.

Maruti’s monthly sales trend has been strong:
Jan 2026: 236,963 units (+11.6% YoY)
Feb 2026: 213,995 units (+7.3% YoY)
Mar 2026: 225,251 units (+16.7% YoY)
Apr 2026: 239,646 units (+33.3% YoY)
May 2026: 242,688 units (+34.8% YoY)

ADD THIS TO YOUR WATCHLIST!

Note: This is only for educational purposes and is not a buy/hold/sell recommendation.