Thalien⚡

Natcat holder, $SBTC beliver

[JAMES WYNN @JamesWynnReal]

A LOT OF TRADING METRICS GO OUT OF THE WINDOW WHEN ITS THE BULL RUN

DON’T TRY AND OUT-TRADE / OUT-SMART THE MARKET. YOU WILL LOSE YOUR $BTC - JUST HOLD.

HIGHER HIGHER HIGHER 🚀🚀🚀

[Kamino @kamino]

Kamino Lend has been integrated into @cryptocom

Users can now tap into secure, permissionless yields on the @solana blockchain, directly from the Crypto dot com app

Huge milestone for the ecosystem🫡

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

I’m sorry, but I just can’t stand it anymore.

This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination.

Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong. You know it.

[jeff.hl @chameleon_jeff]

Thank you to everyone who took the time to thoughtfully respond to my post on transparent markets. I understand that the thesis is controversial and that Hyperliquid is at a new frontier as the first fully transparent order book venue of its scale.

I could well be mistaken, and welcome the continuous dialogue on market structure innovation. However, many criticisms I saw stemmed from misunderstandings, with some points actually supporting transparent systems like Hyperliquid. Market structure is notoriously counterintuitive, and novel approaches often challenge established paradigms, leading to understandable skepticism.

For example, Hyperliquid pioneered protocol-level cancel prioritization, which has since been implemented by new DEXs and even inspired novel transaction ordering ideas on other blockchains. But at the time, it was considered controversial because it went against traditional market design. I hope that transparent trading will follow a similar path to adoption.

I may have been too ambitious trying to cover a complex argument in a single post. Given the specific patterns in criticisms, I'd like to take this opportunity to zoom in on nuances that were missed in the high level summary. What follows is an argument for the final state of efficient markets, with the understanding that Hyperliquid is far from fully efficient today. However, inefficiency is opportunity for those hungry to act. Hopefully this post can also be a call to action for traders, market makers, and builders to translate transparent markets into the highest quality execution venue for all.

--

Before delving into specific concerns, let’s crystallize some counterintuitive principles that can form a helpful mental model for market structure:

1. Counterparty principle: Benefits of counterparty curation are misattributed to privacy.

Users ultimately care about execution. As studies have shown though, privacy sells. Alternative trading venues often market privacy as the causal feature for improving execution. In reality, the primary source of benefit for users is the screening of counterparties allowed to participate on the venue. Hyperliquid’s market design provides these same benefits more directly and effectively than patchwork solutions. Hyperliquid’s solution also democratizes access, improving execution for all traders large and small.

Note that transparency does not mean doxxing. Of course, the exact identity of some traders will fundamentally change the value of the asset. But those traders need not dox themselves, e.g. Warren Buffet can buy BTC and benefit from transparent markets, without tying his identity to his address.

2. Competition principle: Maximizing competition is key to improving execution.

Many traders who want to execute in size have some form of alpha. However, the group of informed medium/long term traders in aggregate is difficult to distinguish even over yearly timeframes, as their realized sharpe is too low for statistical significance. It is challenging to distinguish between a trader with solid medium term alpha and a degenerate gambler who got lucky. Therefore, while the desire to minimize market impact and alpha leakage is natural, it’s usually outweighed by the improved liquidity from transparent markets.

Traders therefore see improved execution despite revealing their strategy, as market makers are bound to provide liquidity to the entire range of flows in the market. Competition is the bedrock of capital markets and economics. As an example, the Hyperliquid order books support an onchain TWAP. Such a broadcasted intent to trade is in fact a reasonable proxy for optimal execution. Market makers will immediately fill some size so that the earlier TWAP orders receive worse execution, but will also compete to fill the remaining flow. The competition between market makers ensures near optimal overall execution over the course of the TWAP. Any inefficiency in execution is an opportunity for another market maker to undercut the others.

3. Repeated games principle: Execution improves when one-time games become repeated games.

Market makers evaluate each decision from a game-theoretical framework, as they are in the business of making positive expectancy bets. On Hyperliquid, every account placing more than one order is playing a repeated game. Repeated games have dramatically different optimal strategies from the one-time games of private venues, and the resulting equilibrium is better execution for everyone other than toxic extractors. Competition is essential for the optimal market marker strategy to benefit the end user, which is amplified by the next principle.

4. Full transparency principle: Benefits from transparency are non-linear and only manifest when transparency is at the system level.

When optimizing for execution, “the system knows” > “no one knows” > “some people know.” The worst of the three states is where some insiders have privileged information. Those insiders can act exploitatively to extract profit from end users. Because L3 books are not transparent in tradfi, the “darker” venues often implement systems to unilaterally apply counterparty-specific filtering to trades. Hyperliquid achieves the same effect on a lit venue and therefore maintains the benefits of efficient order book execution.

--

Common criticisms to the initial post, and my responses [I’ve bracketed references to the different principles]:

1. Many large desks in tradfi trade OTC, which is evidence that public venues cannot support large size.

Response: This point actually supports Hyperliquid. In tradfi's L3 books, there is no reliable way to broadcast your identity trustlessly to all counterparties. Using an OTC desk is a compromise, telling a small set of professional counterparties that you are non-toxic. Like trading on an L4 order book, trading OTC is a repeated game where the OTC desk is quick to ban any counterparties that adversely select a small fraction of quotes, or engage in otherwise toxic behavior [repeated games principle]. The OTC desks offer quotes where their own algorithmic execution/hedging costs are below the markup, which is only possible when their fills’ immediate markouts are positive.

A Hyperliquid whale who places an onchain TWAP order is effectively routing their flow to every "OTC desk" plugged into Hyperliquid. When OTC counterparties expand from a select few to all market makers, the competition improves execution for the user compared to the bespoke OTC quote [competition principle]. In summary, execution on Hyperliquid incorporates the efficiency of lit venues with the counterparty signaling of OTC. This high quality execution is available to all users equally.

2. A large percentage of tradfi volume happens on dark pools, retail internalizer systems, etc.

Response: This argument also supports Hyperliquid. The basic idea behind dark pools is that two large whales with a "coincidence of wants" can match immediately and bypass the spread that lit markets charge. Until such a match exists, orders are attempted to be kept private to reduce market impact. While a neat idea at first glance, the privacy of dark pools is unlikely to meaningfully protect intentions or improve execution. For example, sophisticated actors participate in dark pools themselves. At a minimum, their fills are a strong signal on the supposedly private flow. This shares many parallels with the insider information discussed in the following section. Information that will be deduced anyway is better made public [full transparency principle].

As another argument against the effectiveness of privacy properties, dark pools rely heavily on participants having identities known to the pool operator [repeated games principle]. This is necessary because the private information is easily leaked. There are strict requirements for participation, e.g. high fill rate, minimum order size, and negative short term markouts. Offenders with toxic behavior are banned or deprioritized [counterparty principle]. Like OTC desks discussed above, transparent L4 books on Hyperliquid incorporate and improve upon many of these positive properties of dark pools within an open, systematic framework.

3. Public data allows hunting of liquidations/stops.

Response: Most would agree that unlike size information, preserving margin privacy is beneficial for the end user. Perhaps a ZK privacy implementation can accomplish this in the future. However, until then, users are less likely to be successfully hunted if everyone knows liquidation and stop prices than when only the exchange operator knows [full transparency principle]. Two reasons:

a. On CEXs, your position information is far from private. Based on empirical data of insider trading leading up to listings, one should assume that liquidations and stops are also vulnerable to misuse. This can be despite best efforts from management: it is extremely difficult to completely control large organizations from leaking information. When insiders hunt stops and liquidations, there is no public data for other market makers to understand the source of the temporary dislocation. This decreases the required capital to successfully push the price.

b. In the game theoretical equilibrium of transparent data, stop and liquidation hunting are likely unprofitable endeavors on average. Whales are protected by the entire system of market participants acting rationally. People trying to hunt liquidations and stops will be counteracted by people trying to trick them into the hunting. For example, someone who wants to open a large long position can execute half of their position on high leverage, bait the hunters to short, then increase collateral and enter the remaining desired position at a more favorable price. As long as some profit seeking “anti-hunters” exist, all whales benefit from the cover.

While point (b) will take time to play out, markets are ultimately efficient. Even before this equilibrium is reached, the full transparency principle in point (a) suggests Hyperliquid's model offers more robust protection for whales. Liquidity is generally deeper when lit venues are more transparent [competition principle], which further increases the cost of liquidation and stop hunting.

4. Some users have alpha and will not benefit from transparency.

Response: The users that are disadvantaged by Hyperliquid’s system are a very small set of “toxic” participants. These are the same adversarial traders that dark pools, OTC desks, and other solutions try to avoid. A small number of professional HFT firms have alpha on this timescale, and it’s a failing of traditional market structure that these toxic takers have the ability to tax all other users of the system.

As an aside, short term alpha and toxicity is a continuous spectrum, so I’m oversimplifying for sake of argument. For example, there are intraday quantitative strategies that can realize significant sharpe ratios, whose flow could be a reliable momentum signal for market makers. The technical reason this is not a problem is that cost to rotate accounts is proportional to fee sensitivity of the strategy, which is inversely proportional to the time it takes for others to detect the strategy with statistical significance. In other words, the more execution matters to a quant strategy, the less the burden of obfuscation.

Regardless, the vast majority of users on Hyperliquid do not fall remotely close to this category of quantitative, toxic alpha. Note that “toxic” does not mean “informed,” but rather traders who profit non-constructively from slight infrastructural or other structural advantages such as latency. Hyperliquid's cancel prioritization and L4 order book essentially boost the short term liquidity available to non-toxic small and large orders, respectively. As a conservative lower bound, as long as market maker counterparties on Hyperliquid can hedge in time on other venues, the trader benefits from Hyperliquid’s system.

--

I know I’ve missed other points, but will stop here to keep this post digestible. Thanks again to everyone for their thoughtful feedback, especially those who took time to review an earlier version of this post. I look forward to continuing this discussion!

[Hash @Hashbergers]

I AM LITERALLY SHAKING RN

I can't believe I just won 679.05 $SOL from $BALL

INSANE TECH. 😭

[Alina @alina_creates]

DAB UPDATE! @virtuals_io
It’s going down… for real 🎵

Day 13: 1,219 DAB | 4,980 Yap Points

What I did today:
– Did some lil trading volume on $SOLACE and $AXR
– Still holding 11 Agents staked (strong but confused lol)

Ngl, my yap pts keep dropping. Tho, I’ve been yapping more, getting more likes, more impressions lately and somehow... less points? Hmm, gave up trying to decode it lol

Thought I moved today but pts said otherwise.
Anyway… still here, still trenching. Hows yours?

virgenity.

[Thalien⚡ @ThalienVosclair]

@Flawwllesss @MutantHounds check dm broski

[Lilyanna 比特里里 - AI 探索版 🔮🧑‍💻 @lilyanna_btc]

888888 区块，RSIC 终于有动静了！
（例行声明：仅作科普解读，非投资建议，勿上头，自行决策）

先说重点：如果你钱包地址里持有 Runecoin（RSIC 那个符文代币），看看是不是大于 88,888 个。
- 如果大于 88,888 个，赶紧自转（自己转给自己，原来在 A 地址就从 A 地址转到 A 地址）一下激活，就可以开始挖矿了。
- 小于 88,888 个，可以凑一下，尽量凑它的整数倍。
- 不想玩了现在去挂单，趁这两天流动性好~

✍️具体规则解读：
注：规则中一共有三种东西，RSIC NFT（就是那个矿机 RSIC METAPROTOCOL）、RSIC 的符文代币 Runecoin、它们挖出来的代币叫 Secret（「秘密」）。

1. 从去年的减半区块（#840000）开始，RSIC 的第二季确实已经开始了，而且将于 F 区块结束（F 区块未知，揭示具体区块高度的公告将会提前至少 8888 区块发布）。

2. RSIC（那个 NFT) 一直在为持有者挖矿（前提是 NFT 是被激活状态，也就是被自转过一次），每个区块挖 21 个「秘密」。还有个随机的额外掉落规则，当 RSIC 的类型跟区块哈希值的最后一个十六进制数字匹配的时候，会在这个区块中获得额外的「秘密」。

3. Runecoin（RSIC 那个符文代币) 可以在 888,888 区块开始后挖矿，前提是要自转激活过。每个区块，每 88,888 个 Runecoin 给你挖 8 个「秘密」，不足 88,888 个无效，多的可叠加。(例如：8 RC 产生 0 个「秘密」;88,888 RC 产生 8 个「秘密」;100,000 RC 产生 8 个「秘密」,177,776 RC 产生 16 个「秘密」，依此类推。)

4. 同地址下持有的 RSIC 和 Runecoin，挖的「秘密」可叠加，无上限。

5. 还有提到一个「混沌」（或者叫混乱，原文是 CHAOS），会在 F 区块被宣布以后开始，持续到 F 区块，具体规则不清楚，可以期待下后续公告。

最后再说一遍！！持有 Runecoin 的一定要记得自转激活！不激活无法开始挖矿！
还有其他问题可以留在评论区。

信息来源：
#126铭文下铭刻了一个新的子铭文（由于父子铭文的特性，基本可以认证这是项目��的动作，不持有 126 铭文无法铭刻它的子铭文），原文可以看铭文的文本
https://t.co/jikjO6R9mk

[Crypto中撕聪(Merlin🔮🧙) @CryptoWsc]

反复观察和亲自买了 #ODINFUN 的几个头部token，推荐入局https://t.co/7WSUSzHkMx，原因：
1真的不太pvp，不钻地不圣诞树，尤其头部几个项目（#ODINDOG、#satoshi、#sparks），买了放在那儿甚至可以睡觉；
2承接上一点说，BTC生态是迄今对钻石手最友好的生态，从ordi、sats到蓝盒子都有过近万倍；
3Runes还没有真正爆发过，解决了流动性和交易难度的平台是催化剂；
4可以期待Runes可以充值进入的时刻，将会有更大的资金和用户流入；
5之前的BTC项目华人居多，老外始终认可度偏低，@Odin_GodOfRunes 老外做的，华人也认可，东西方流量都汇聚。
��之，类比BRC20，我觉得属于Ordi刚上OK的时刻，非常早期，还有很多可以期待，狂揽起于青萍之末💪

[丌 | 镜像派 | 红派 | RedPi｜盛世社区，Global @redpibrc20]

中国瓷都景德镇本月
3月23号红丌线下共识会议，
欢迎全国红丌新老朋友
共识者来赋能

#丌 #btc #brc20 #redpi #红派 #红丌 #镜像丌 #盛世社区

[丌 | 镜像派 | 红派 | RedPi｜盛世社区，Global @redpibrc20]

中国 杭州 本月3月30号红丌线下共识沙龙，
欢迎全国红丌新老朋友
共识者来赋能

#丌 #btc #brc20 #redpi #红派 #红丌 #镜像丌 #盛世社区

[丌 | 镜像派 | 红派 | RedPi｜盛世社区，Global @redpibrc20]

$MASK 和 比特红 $丌
#比特红派 #盛世社区 #BRC20 #MASK #丌 #REDPI

[丌 | 镜像派 | 红派 | RedPi｜盛世社区，Global @redpibrc20]

中国瓷都景德镇本月
3月23号红丌线下共识会议，
欢迎全国红丌新老朋友
共识者来赋能

#丌 #btc #brc20 #redpi #红派 #红丌 #镜像丌 #盛世社区

[Thalien⚡ @ThalienVosclair]

LFG

[丌 | 镜像派 | 红派 | RedPi｜盛世社区，Global @redpibrc20]

盛世社区，比特红丌
奋进歌

第二神曲
红旗之光，穿透云霄
加入盛世未来无限
一个目标永不偏移
比特币回生生不息
社区就是加密奇迹

#丌 #btc #brc20 #redpi #红派 #红丌 #镜像丌 #盛世社区

[丌 | 镜像派 | 红派 | RedPi｜盛世社区，Global @redpibrc20]

盛世社区，比特红丌
奋进歌

第二神曲
红旗之光，穿透云霄
加入盛世未来无限
一个目标永不偏移
比特币回生生不息
社区就是加密奇迹

#丌 #btc #brc20 #redpi #红派 #红丌 #镜像丌 #盛世社区

[丌 | 镜像派 | 红派 | RedPi｜盛世社区，Global @redpibrc20]

盛世社区，比特红丌，遍地开花，即将爆发

#丌 #btc #brc20 #redpi #红派 #红丌 #镜像丌 #盛世社区

[丌 | 镜像派 | 红派 | RedPi｜盛世社区，Global @redpibrc20]

@elonmusk Brothers in arms,
heart in heart,
fight together
#PEPE #DOGE #丌 #redpi #红派 #红丌 #盛世 #starsky

[BWeys 📈 @bweys_nft]

Added a Catnip cig (1/38) Natcat to collection

Love collection traits which are differentiated from other collections. And this trait name & look just slaps

Also overall clean AF imo

Prior owner minted it & has 8 other Catnips so gg there too 🫡