Thathsarani Siriwardana

An inquisitive mind who believes history repeats itself and holds lessons for the present. A numbers geek. Enjoy writing about topics that spark my curiosity.

[Rohan Samarajiva @samarajiva]

Excellent policy relevant and rigorous work on remittance flows to Sri Lanka from U of Moratuwa researchers, including @NisansaDdS .

https://t.co/BPeG0k8YrG

[Kanchana Wijesekera @kanchana_wij]

If anyone wants to give any credit to anyone for developing the National Fuel Pass QR based system, it should be to Jayantha De Silva & his team at ICTA, Supun Weerasinghe & his team at Dialog Axiata, Shevan Goonathilake & his team at Millenium IT.

Their teams developed the platform within 2 weeks of our first meeting and rolled it out within a month at no cost to the government. It was implemented with the assistance & dedication of many more stakeholders.

[Ken Cao-The China Crash Chronicle @KenCao_onChina]

Iran just announced closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Twenty million barrels per day move through that 21-mile chokepoint. Fifteen percent of global LNG. One-fifth of the planet’s petroleum. The IRGC broadcast the warning. Brent spiked to $120 instantly. If one tanker is hit, oil will jump to $200. At $200 oil, the global economy doesn’t “slow.” It locks up.

This is a regime under direct military pressure pulling its last economic lever.

An oil shock of this scale doesn’t just hit drivers. It hits Chinese factories that run on imported crude and the war machinery those factories ultimately sustain.

The U.S. Fifth Fleet sits in Bahrain. A carrier strike group waits nearby. One attack on a tanker and the response won’t be symbolic. It will be decisive.

Iran isn’t sealing the artery of industrial civilization.

It’s daring America to reopen it by force.

[A K Mandhan @A_K_Mandhan]

#Bad news for #GOLD

⚠️China is dumping US Treasuries and loading up on gold: China's gold reserves hit 74.1 million ounces, an all-time high. At the same time, China's holdings of US Treasuries plunged to $682.6 billion, the lowest in 18 years. China has slashed its Treasury position by over -$600 billion since the 2013 peak. At the same time, the country's gold reserves more than DOUBLED. China is actively diversifying away from Dollar-denominated assets into hard assets.

Expect this trend to accelerate.

be ready to pay more for gold

[Rohan Samarajiva @samarajiva]

"For a long, planners have worried about how to deal with the young. Lacking enough opportunities and release valves, they are likely to wreak the kinds of devastation visited upon Kathmandu and Dhaka. It may not be a coincidence that the 2022 Aragalaya coincided with the first of those born during the mini population boom of 2000-2014 reaching working age. This group will keep coming into the workforce until 2034-36. It would be foolish of those in power not to act decisively to expand economic opportunities for them as the highest priority, especially because the escape valve of migration is being gradually shut."
https://t.co/Njf6Pngco9

[Rohan Samarajiva @samarajiva]

According to the preliminary release of the findings of the census of govt employees, "the number of employees in all public and semi-government sector institutions is reported as 1,156,018 (provisional). The majority of employees are in the central government, accounting for 59.5% of the total workforce. . . . It should be noted that the employees of the subsidiaries of semi government institutions and estate field laborers of semi government sector estates have not been included in this Census. Further, only the civil staff of Sri Lanka Army, Navy and Air Force has been included in the Census."

With roughly 300,000 in the armed forces, that would take the total to around 1.5 million.

[The Examiner @ExaminerLK]

Readings from the past week, for the week ahead.

Diary brings you writing from @udakdev @Thathsarani98 @afidelf. Link ⬇️

[Thathsarani Siriwardana @Thathsarani98]

Disclaimer: The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not represent the opinions of any organization the author is currently or previously affiliated with. The author assumes full responsibility for any errors or omissions.

[Thathsarani Siriwardana @Thathsarani98]

A closer look at capital expenditure trends over the last decade highlights a sharp contraction in recent years. While budget allocations for capital expenditure have often exceeded LKR 1 trillion, actual utilization has been far lower.

[Thathsarani Siriwardana @Thathsarani98]

Over time, this underinvestment risks constraining productivity, private sector competitiveness, and overall growth potential.

To read the article : https://t.co/RNGvlTfafB

[Thathsarani Siriwardana @Thathsarani98]

And at what point do we start talking about building apartment projects focused on affordability. There is plenty luxury apartment complexs being made. Majority of working people who earns a decent pay can't even afford those. So who is gonna do that ?.

[Sonal Jayawickrama @sonaljay8]

At what point do we begin to say that Colombo has way too many apartment projects coming up and already completed. Apart from a handful, most of the completed projects are not fully sold yet either.

[Thathsarani Siriwardana @Thathsarani98]

Given the critical role remittances play in supporting the country’s external sector and current account, this emerging risk underscores the need for proactive monitoring and policy preparedness.

To Read the article : 👇https://t.co/jkpScl6r9W

[Thathsarani Siriwardana @Thathsarani98]

Between 2012 and 2020, the country's external sector performance and foreign exchange earnings were heavily reliant on the Middle East, which accounted for approximately 45% to 50% of total remittance inflows.

[Thathsarani Siriwardana @Thathsarani98]

However, any disruption in the Middle Eastern labour markets due to conflict or instability could pose risks to Sri Lanka’s remittance inflows.