Some guy pulled up to the World Cup event in a MAGA hat to harass the Mexico supporters and a bunch of Korean dudes stepped up and almost jumped him. This is the closest we’ve ever been to world peace 😭
$SPY Closed at 741 so I’ll hold. I can see price reaching 748-750 again then we’ll see from there.
It’ll either reject which will be very bearish or it will reclaim the broken support and go to all time highs.
Be careful today, there may be some surprises which can move us fast and furiously. Jan 3rd 2001 was the very first trading day of the new year after the tech bubble burst. I was a very big NQ pit trader at the time and mid morning I was short 28 big NQ which was 28k every 10 points. Greenspan cut rates by 50 basis points late morning on the thinnest day of the year at the thinnest time. The NQ rallied 26% in just a few minutes, the biggest one day rally in history, still is. I was bidding the market up 50-100 pts a crack to get out and there were no offers. I was competing with Susquehanna to get out of shorts, it was a complete nightmare.
When all was said and done I lost 1.5M of my own money, money I never dreamed I would have a couple years previous. I was debit 650K the next day but my reputation was such that my FCM allowed me to trade the next day before I was able to clear up my debit with a posative balance of 1M. It was VERY important to me that I was in the pit the next day. I could not let anyone think I was weakened or fearful. I showed up with head held high and my shoulders back.
I showed up like God sent me.
I am always mindful of that day on FOMC days and on big moves. I know what it feels like to have the world spinning out of control around you where seconds feels like hours. I also know what it feels like to stand on your own two feet when all you want to do is pull the covers over your head and hide a bit. We show up every day to battle, not the market but oursleves.
The best lesson I learned that day was the market cannot hurt me-only I can.
I spent over two decades as a full time futures trader and scalper, and I learned your edge isn’t just your strategy. It’s your focus.
It’s the amount of hyperfocus it takes every single day. Blocking everything out, slowing your heart rate down, staying calm, believing in your homework, executing at a high level. Trading has to be your number one focus each day. So if you’re learning to become a successful trader, here are three things you may be focusing on that are working against you.
First, other people’s money. Stop looking at how much everyone else is making. That’s the number one thing you have to look away from. I was around thousands of traders on the floor and I barely remember us talking about money. It was private. The goal was to build a life. It felt blue collar. Today everyone talks about what they make, trying to prove someone wrong about the market. It’s a different place, and a lot harder for a new trader to block the noise out.
Second, the access. Overnight used to just be overnight, where you managed a position if you had one. Set time to start, set time to break, set time to come back. We traded mornings, skipped midday, came back for the close. Now the access never stops, and it’s spread everyone’s focus too thin to stay locked in.
Third, understanding the market environment. We move between environments at a very rapid rate. We go from trending higher with no signs of a pullback, buy the dip and hold on, straight into sell off mode. Trying to guess what those days will be like going into them is very difficult. You have to stay open minded and understand how quickly the tape can change. Last Friday was the perfect example. A market runs higher a lot further than most thought, then unravels all at once. It’s the same psychology we see in traders. They stay in their own trend for only so long, then unravel all at once. If you’re not focused, or you’re clinging too hard to one market environment as you move into the next, you aren’t allowing things to be what they are. You’re fighting them for what they were.
So here’s the simple part. Slow everything down. Survive a game where you pay your bills and stay in long enough to make a living. There will be moments this business really pays you, and you won’t choose them. They choose you. The rest is grinding, surviving, enjoying the process. Arguing with people on social media is a time waster, and the people who do it are usually unhappy in their own lives. Spend your time wisely.
Focus is the whole game. Protect it like your account depends on it, because it does.
Enjoy your life. Have fun. This is the greatest business in the world if you let it be. And it’ll be the worst, and destroy your life, if you let it.
Cheers, DELI
If you guys remember last November-Feb the environment was tough.
I ran a poll on X asking everyone "If you hadn't placed a trade since November, would your account be higher or lower?"
I believe 80% said higher.
Before that, the previous 6 months in the market were pretty easy to get traction in new positions and make progress.
Then all of a sudden everything still looked similar to your eye but things felt way tougher. Stops hit a lot, breakouts failed often, and most of us placed a lot of trades during that period only to grind our accounts down because the conditions shifted.
The first reaction when this happens is thinking you are doing something wrong. You question yourself and your strategy but most likely your entries are fine, the setups are fine, the market environment just changed and environment is more important than any setup.
The first 2 weeks of this recent uptrend you could buy anything and it was up 20% the next day. Good entries were rewarded, bad entries were rewarded. When the environment shifts even the best setup is more likely to fail than a bad setup in a strong environment.
I have no idea how this plays out but after last week I feel like its likely we chop for a few weeks at least, which would be healthy if this uptrend is going to continue.
If we do chop around, theres probably going to look like unlimited opportunities similar to the past few weeks, but it will be harder to make progress.
Things will likely feel tough even if they look good and its important to use that as feedback to slow down instead of thinking you are doing something wrong all of the sudden, getting frustrated, and giving back $ you made from April/May.
If we chop for a few weeks and then have another leg higher I'd expect it to be of similar strength as the last 2 months. That would be another window where making progress is easy.
My job until easy windows open up is to not dig a hole while waiting. Chopping yourself up hurts your account and your confidence so when the easy window is back you end up hesitating.
At the moment I think this is healthy pause within a massive uptrend... maybe that changes... but it doesn't matter how it plays out if its tough to get traction and my equity curve is going down I ease up and raise cash. If things start to work and feel easy then lean into it.
Environment > setup.
Before you start thinking ur entries are bad and ur doing something wrong step back its probably the environment.
I dont think this is another Nov-Feb market we will enter atleast not for as long, just using it as its most recent memory of difficult for most of us.
@myetherstoreeth@DudeWhoInvests If you’re making money like you think you are, why are you so bothered by what a stranger says online? You’re triggered and I’m the emotional one?
$MU The Memory Shortage Is Just Beginning. The Consumer Pain Is Already Here. Demand for the types of memory and storage chips in AI servers is off the charts, and the three big manufacturers— Micron Technology, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics —don’t have significant new manufacturing coming on-line until the middle of next year. These companies are doing whatever they can to maximize this market, the hottest they’ve ever seen. All of this year’s supply is spoken for, and 2027 order books are getting close to full. Full speed ahead. Barron's