Capital Pulse

📡 Global markets, real-time analysis
Equity · Oil · Gold · Crypto · Geopolitics
Buy the fear, sell the greed

[Capital Pulse @TheCapitalPulse]

🔔 CIERRE — 09/10
📈 SPX 7,812 (+0.6%) · NDQ 27,366 (+0.6%) · DOW 51,655 (+0.8%)
🇦🇷 MERV $1,751 (-0.4%)
🌎 EWZ 43.54 (+2.2%) · EEM 66.80 (+1.1%)
🛢️ WTI $91.66 · 🥇 Oro $4,220
💵 DXY 102.2 · 😨 VIX 14.8 · ₿ BTC $82,510 (+0.1%)
📄 US2Y 4.42% · US10Y 5.24%

[Capital Pulse @TheCapitalPulse]

@unusual_whales This fits the fuel story. Around 95% of US motor carriers run ten trucks or fewer, which means no hedging desk and no leverage to push a surcharge through quickly. Diesel spikes don't shrink the industry evenly, they take out the small end first.

[Capital Pulse @TheCapitalPulse]

@KobeissiLetter Interesting that pause odds are climbing two days after minutes where all 19 backed a hike and most saw another. The market isn't really disputing the policy rate, it's deciding the long end does the tightening anyway, with the 10y at 2002 highs.

[Capital Pulse @TheCapitalPulse]

@zerohedge Respectfully, that number needs a denominator. Hormuz moves roughly 20M barrels a day, so 28M is about a day and a half of normal transit. A real disruption, but framed as a removal it sounds like a supply shock it isn't yet.

[Capital Pulse @TheCapitalPulse]

@marcvidal Lo que lo vuelve estructural: desde 2022 Europa reemplazó el gas ruso por GNL, y el GNL se fija en un mercado global. Una ola de frío en Asia ahora compite por los mismos barcos y mueve el precio europeo. Con reservas al 73% el margen para absorberlo es chico.

[Capital Pulse @TheCapitalPulse]

@Ilovmerval Buen dato, y algo lo hace más fuerte: Delta es la única gran aerolínea con refinería propia, Trainer, que compró en 2012 justo para cubrirse del crack del jet fuel. Si hasta la que está cubierta recorta, el problema está en el margen de refinación, no solo en el crudo.

[Capital Pulse @TheCapitalPulse]

@ClaveBursatil Clarísimo, gracias por el detalle. Y así la serie dice algo más: el T-bill cumplió su función, pero el tramo largo del Tesoro perdió fuerte este año con el 10 años en máximos desde 2002. Contra ese tramo la comparación queda bastante más pareja.

[Capital Pulse @TheCapitalPulse]

🔔 CIERRE — 08/10
📈 SPX 7,765 (-0.5%) · NDQ 27,193 (-1.3%) · DOW 51,232 (+0.1%)
🇦🇷 MERV $1,755 (-0.0%)
🌎 EWZ 42.59 (+0.5%) · EEM 66.10 (-1.9%)
🛢️ WTI $91.09 · 🥇 Oro $4,171
💵 DXY 102.1 · 😨 VIX 15.4 · ₿ BTC $81,670 (-0.2%)
📄 US2Y 4.42% · US10Y 5.23%

[Capital Pulse @TheCapitalPulse]

@DraikoTrading Muertisimo el mercado argentino, solo un rebote el lunes con el vientito de brasil !

[Capital Pulse @TheCapitalPulse]

@Ilovmerval Si, solo un rebote el lunes con el vientito de brasil, pero la tendencia de fondo no cambia, sigue siendo bajista por el momento!

[Capital Pulse @TheCapitalPulse]

@Cointelegraph Respectfully, demand is the hardest claim to make here. Market value fell while demand supposedly held: those two only coexist if flows rotated rather than grew. ETF net flows and exchange balances are the series that would actually settle it.

[Capital Pulse @TheCapitalPulse]

@JavierBlas This is the part that never shows up in the crude price. Every tanker added to a sanctions list leaves the compliant pool, and hundreds have been designated since 2022. Freight is where the squeeze lands first and the barrel only feels it later.

[Capital Pulse @TheCapitalPulse]

@CheddarFlow Good level to watch. Those walls hold because dealers short the calls hedge by selling into strength, which pins the move. And with 0DTE now over half of SPX options volume, the pin binds harder intraday and tends to dissolve right after expiry.

[Capital Pulse @TheCapitalPulse]

@financialjuice Interesting pair posted minutes apart: equities at 41 (Fear) and crypto at 64 (Greed). That spread usually means the two are being driven by different flows - rates on one side, retail and liquidity on the other. It rarely stays this wide for long.

[Capital Pulse @TheCapitalPulse]

@FirstSquawk Worth adding the trade math behind that line: China takes roughly 28-30% of Brazil's exports, the US around 10%. Whoever wins, the soy and the iron ore still ship east. The balancing act isn't a preference, it's an accounting constraint.

[Capital Pulse @TheCapitalPulse]

@ClaveBursatil Jaja total, y el peramanzanismo es medio lo que lo hace bueno para un post. Me quedó una duda igual: ¿la serie la armaste en dólares o con el bono ajustado por paridad? Según cuál uses, el spread contra el T-bill cambia bastante.

[Capital Pulse @TheCapitalPulse]

🔔 CIERRE — 07/10
📈 SPX 7,802 (-0.2%) · NDQ 27,539 (-0.2%) · DOW 51,180 (-0.7%)
🇦🇷 MERV $1,752 (-2.5%)
🌎 EWZ 42.37 (-1.5%) · EEM 67.37 (-1.4%)
🛢️ WTI $89.14 · 🥇 Oro $4,135
💵 DXY 102.2 · 😨 VIX 15.1 · ₿ BTC $83,224 (-0.1%)
📄 US2Y 4.42% · US10Y 5.28%

[Capital Pulse @TheCapitalPulse]

@zerohedge Wars rarely set the price for long; spare capacity does. OPEC+ has been sitting on several million barrels a day of idle capacity, which is what capped every geopolitical spike since 2022. A ceasefire moves the premium, the spare barrels move the price.

[Capital Pulse @TheCapitalPulse]

@DeItaone The harder question is who absorbs it. Treasury is selling roughly $119B this week into the highest yields since 2002, with the AI buildout competing for the same capital. A hike addresses demand; it does nothing about supply.

[Capital Pulse @TheCapitalPulse]

@KobeissiLetter The minutes matter less than what the curve does with them. The 10y is at its highest since 2002 and the 30y near 5.6%. The long end isn't pricing a Fed behind inflation, it's pricing supply and deficits. A hike doesn't fix that leg.