Dustin Bailey

I buy real estate and ghostwrite...for people with better things to do • CRE GP & LP • Pilot of planes & ideas • Tweets about finance, AI, tech, and power

[Dustin Bailey @TheDustinBailey]

@coreyganim Is that 10% of $20 of credits or 10% of $10K of credits?

[Dustin Bailey @TheDustinBailey]

He was referring to Europe and Asia.

He also said, in the same interview:
“The US is don’t going to see supply outages.”

Don’t fall for this doomer bait.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Chevron CEO says physical shortages in oil supply to begin appearing

[Dustin Bailey @TheDustinBailey]

@jacob_posel Would love to know more

[Dustin Bailey @TheDustinBailey]

@MediaKing Do you think this stratifies any by age?

I've subscribed to Stansberry products for over a decade and always assumed the target reader was 60+...aka the people who still haven't used AI.

[Dustin Bailey @TheDustinBailey]

@tolibear_ Had Claude Code build my own stripped down version with just the functionality I use. Took the better part of a day, but seems to be working well enough.

[Dustin Bailey @TheDustinBailey]

@flow_goes_indie What model were you previously using?

I see people saying it works just as well, but it’s nowhere near as smart as Opus.

It does well with precise, verbose instructions, but Opus definitely has the ability to figure things out on its own way better.

[Dustin Bailey @TheDustinBailey]

@Shpigford Can it be used without sending your data to servers in China?

[Dustin Bailey @TheDustinBailey]

Been excited for this one to go live!

Super thankful to @MediaKing for joining us - we had a great conversation that went beyond the usual “media business” story and into capital allocation, cash flow, and why real estate became part of his investment strategy.

[Matt Paulson @MediaKing]

New podcast drop!

https://t.co/V5djMFcjB8

[Dustin Bailey @TheDustinBailey]

@pbteja1998 5.4 has been decent for me so far today. It does the “If you want” thing too, but I’m hopeful I can adjust that though the bootstrap docs

[Dustin Bailey @TheDustinBailey]

@Shpigford My early conversations this morning have been surprisingly decent. I’ve found that it’s followed some instructions in the bootstrap docs better than Opus…like it’s made comments about stuff and I’ve been like “oh I forgot I had that in there”

[Dustin Bailey @TheDustinBailey]

@mattvanswol It's really thoughtful of the organizers to give struggling boomers something to fill their time on a Saturday.

[Dustin Bailey @TheDustinBailey]

@uptonaccounting Connect it to QBO via API and it can make the entries for you

[Dustin Bailey @TheDustinBailey]

United Airlines is prepping for $175 oil, and Goldman has WTI at an average of $79 for the year.

In other words, no one has a clue what’s gonna happen.

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

Goldman on oil

#oott #iran

[Dustin Bailey @TheDustinBailey]

One of my favorite things about running agents is the amount of context they have about you & your business, and the little places that shows up.

I didn't need the reminder, but thought it was cool that mine called out higher oil prices being good for our latest oil fund.

[Dustin Bailey @TheDustinBailey]

If you're using the API (not a subscription), you need to load it with higher amounts to unlock a higher API tier. For Anthropic, they rate limit any individual requests at like 30k tokens...the OpenClaw bootstrap files are ~20-25k, so it only takes a couple of messages to push it over.

[Dustin Bailey @TheDustinBailey]

It's pretty clear that Anthropic is handling the increased Claude demand by nerfing the models.

Never seen Opus as stupid as it is today. Won't follow documented directions.

[Dustin Bailey @TheDustinBailey]

BREAKING: new disruptive technology is just like all previous disruptive technologies.

[Alex Veremeyenko @alex_verem]

🚨 BREAKING: Berkeley just proved that AI doesn’t save you time. It makes you work MORE.

Researchers Aruna Ranganathan and Xingqi Maggie Ye from Berkeley’s Haas School of Business spent 8 months embedded inside a 200-person tech company. Twice-weekly observations. 40+ deep interviews across engineering, product, design, and operations.

This wasn’t a survey. They watched what actually happens when a company gives everyone AI tools and says “go.” What they found contradicts everything AI vendors have been selling you. Employees worked at a faster pace, took on a broader scope of tasks, and extended work into more hours of the day. Nobody asked them to. The company didn’t even mandate AI use. People just voluntarily did more because AI made “doing more” feel possible.

One employee put it perfectly: “You had thought that maybe you save some time, you can work less. But then really, you don’t work less.”

That quote should be taped to every monitor running Cursor, Claude, or ChatGPT right now.

And a 2024 Upwork study backs it up: 77% of employees using AI said the tools had actually INCREASED their workload. Nearly half didn’t even know how to achieve the productivity gains their employers expected.

The researchers found 3 patterns destroying work-life balance. First, task expansion. Product managers started writing code. Researchers took on engineering work.

The scope of “my job” widened because AI made everything feel doable. Hiring got postponed because employees absorbed work that would have justified new headcount. Second, blurred boundaries.

Workers sent prompts during lunch, before meetings, at 9pm. AI dropped the friction of starting any task to near zero, and natural stopping points in the workday just dissolved. Third, cognitive overload.

People ran multiple AI agents simultaneously while reviewing code, drafting docs, and sitting in meetings. Both human and machine constantly in motion.

Here’s the cycle that traps you. AI speeds up a task → expectations for speed rise → you rely more on AI → you take on wider scope → workload intensifies → repeat.

The researchers call it “workload creep.” No manager told anyone to work harder. The tools just made doing more feel accessible and rewarding. So people kept going until they couldn’t.
The most dangerous part: in the moment, it feels amazing.

Workers described momentum, expanded capability, the thrill of building things they never could before. But when they stepped back and looked at the full picture, they felt busier, more stretched, unable to disconnect.

By month 6 of the study, reports of burnout, anxiety, and decision paralysis had spiked. Short-term momentum. Long-term strain.

There’s also a competitive dynamic nobody talks about. When your colleague uses AI to take on extra responsibilities, standing still feels like falling behind. Nobody formally raises expectations. But informal norms shift fast. Within months, doing what AI makes possible becomes what’s expected.

The people who set healthy boundaries start looking like underperformers. That’s a toxic dynamic where sustainable work becomes career-limiting.

The researchers propose something they call “AI Practice.” Not “use AI more” or “use AI less.” Intentional habits. Structured reflection intervals built into workflows, not “take breaks when you need to” because nobody does.

Scheduled reviews where teams assess if AI-enabled expansion has crossed sustainable limits. Clear guidelines on when NOT to use AI and which tasks shouldn’t expand just because they can.

I felt this in my own workflow. AI gives you superpowers. But superpowers without discipline just mean you never stop working. The fix isn’t to stop using AI. It’s to stop letting AI decide how much work you do.

Set the scope BEFORE you prompt.

Define “done” BEFORE the tool makes everything feel possible.

[Dustin Bailey @TheDustinBailey]

Don't know when people are going to realize this is a parody account.

The fact that his fake layoff stories get so much engagement shows:
1. how brainwashed the normies are to just accept that this is happening
2. how little real layoff activity is actually happening

[Kalshi Finance @Kalshi_Finance]

AMAZON PRIME VIDEO BLOODBATH

2,847 employees got the email at 6:47 AM PST

"Your role has been eliminated effective immediately"

Badges dead by 7:15 AM. Slack access revoked mid-sentence

Senior engineers who built the entire streaming infrastructure. Gone

The team that shipped 40% faster last quarter using Claude for code generation. Eliminated

847 contractors in Bangalore just got handed their prompt libraries and deployment scripts

Same streaming platform. Same feature velocity expected

14 remaining Seattle engineers to "manage AI-augmented offshore delivery"

The kicker: those eliminated seniors spent 8 months documenting every architectural decision into internal wikis

Every code pattern. Every debugging workflow. Every performance optimization trick

That documentation just became training data for the AI systems replacing them

VP of Engineering sent company-wide: "This transition represents our commitment to AI-first development"

Severance packages include mandatory 90-day non-compete clauses

Meanwhile the Bangalore team already pushed 12 commits using the extracted knowledge base

One former L7 told me: "I literally trained the AI that made me redundant"

If you're at FAANG and not seeing this coming you're already dead

DMs open for anyone who needs to talk

[Dustin Bailey @TheDustinBailey]

@AlexFinn You're vastly underestimating just how hard it is to get new software inside of large companies