The Monad Metrics Guild (mainnet arc)

A team of experienced Web3 data analysts specialising in Monad data.
We typically analyse Molandak's diet and Mouch's 10k wing flaps/sec.

[The Monad Metrics Guild (mainnet arc) @TheMetricsGuild]

GMETRICS you bunch of mainnet waitooors!

🐉@MagmaStaking has recently put out a nice real-time MEV dashboard, and we thought that's a great opportunity to dumb down how MEV works on Monadvs Effirium.

Curious to have Monad MEV explained to you in ELI5 & 5 tweets? then read on!

[The Monad Metrics Guild (mainnet arc) @TheMetricsGuild]

Great content. Indeed this distribution looks exponential, and as for the random element of it, I guess they must've done it like in toy problems you get at school where data is generated from a function (e.g. exponential) and a bit of random noise (positive or negative) is added to it.

[The Monad Metrics Guild (mainnet arc) @TheMetricsGuild]

Very interesting insights and breakdown of Day 1 Monad box rewards!

[Cheaster Antariksa Zas (❖,❖) @zasswff_]

Monad Airdrop Day 1 Box Reveal Deep Dive & Tactical Breakdown

1/ 📃Day 1 of the Monad airdrop reveal just wrapped up, and the data speaks volumes.
Over the next 3 days, participants will open 3–5 boxes daily, but don’t get it twisted:

🎁 The reveal is purely gamified.
📦 Your allocation is already finalized.
It’s not random. Not gacha. Just a fun rollout of what’s mathematically determined.

Let’s break down the curve, the design logic, and what it means tactically 👇

2/ ⏳Here’s the plot from Day 1 data (MON vs Strength):

The results are undeniably exponential.

🔴 Exponential fit: R² = 0.9517
🟢 Linear fit: R² = 0.7191

When a curve fits with that precision (0.95+), it’s not a coincidence it’s by design.
The Monad allocation formula rewards Strength growth exponential.

The exponential relationship changes how you should think about Strength.

A Strength of 4.5 doesn’t get 50% more than Strength 3.0.
It can get 3–5× more depending on the curve.

So the gap between mid tier and high tier users isn’t cosmetic.
It’s compounding.

Every fraction of Strength at the top matters disproportionately.

3/ 📑So what does that mean in practical terms?

Strength isn’t a flat multiplier.
It compounds.

Going from Strenght 2 → 3 might increase your rewards by 2×.
But Strenght 4 → 5 could be a 4–5× jump.

Every additional 0.1 Strength near the top tiers matters disproportionately more than early gains.

4/ 📈To contextualize:

Strenght 0.5–1.5 → Minimal MON (~0–2k)
Strenght 2–3 → Modest allocation, noticeable increase (~5k–20k MON)
Strenght 3-4+ → Curve starts accelerating
Strength 5+ → Exponential explosion (50k–100k MON+)

The “strength economy” clearly rewards the believers.

5/ Now, here’s the tactical alpha 🔍

Many tried splitting their wallets to “maximize” allocation, assuming each wallet adds proportionally.
But that’s not how Monad’s system works.

Strength aggregation is non-linear.

Str 2.2+ Str 2.2 ≠ Str 4.4
→ The total allocation doesn’t increase by combining or splitting.

6/ 🧾This single design choice kills sybil strategies.

People who fragmented accounts expecting more total airdrop lost efficiency.
Those who consolidated genuine engagement into one main identity gained exponential reward.

👉 Strength favors depth, not breadth.

In tactical terms:
"It’s better to have one wallet with Str 4.5 than three wallets at 2.5 each."

7/ 📝 The allocation system, therefore, achieves two goals simultaneously:

✅ Fairness – prevents gaming via wallet-splitting.
✅ Recognition – amplifies returns for consistent, authentic contributors.

That’s a rare balance in airdrop design. Most projects struggle to avoid being either too random or too sybil-prone. Monad nailed the curve.

8/ ⚖️ If you plot the rewards by Strength tier, the inflection point appears around Strenght ≈ 3.8–4.0.

Below that, the slope is steady.
Above that, rewards take off.

That’s the “belief threshold” the line between passive participants and core supporters.

Strategically, that’s where Monad starts separating noise from signal.

9/ 🧮 The high R² (0.95) on the exponential fit isn’t just a stat flex it’s proof that the distribution was mathematically engineered, not random.

It shows clear intention:
Early + consistent > late + intensive
Long term > opportunistic
Strength over volume

It’s a distribution model built for sustainability and alignment.

10/ 💡From a tactical perspective, what should users do next?

📊 Monitor Day 2 and 3 reveals.
While allocations are fixed, box order might reveal hidden distribution patterns or weighting methods.

🧠 Compare across tiers.
If higher Strength users consistently get exponential allocations each day, we can confirm this curve is global not just Day 1 noise.

11/📍Day 1 shows us something few airdrops manage:
Mathematical elegance with community resonance.

Stay tuned.
We’re only 1/3 through the reveal but the math already tells the story.

thanks for @cryptunez, @intern, @billmondays and all of team.

[Pepperatzi @Chisomdickson9]

Its been 2 weeks since the Claim portal and Testnet four went live on @monad and with it a decentralized staking module for nads to stake mon with validators of their choice and earn validator rewards

With over 2.5B $MON staked by historically 348k delegators,

Lets Explore

[Pepperatzi @Chisomdickson9]

Do you know that over 1.4k $MON was the highest claimed amount from validators in Epoch 893 following the launch of @monad staking module in testnet four last week

Testnet Activity still lives even though claim is in less than 6 days..

Expect full report soon....

[The Monad Metrics Guild (mainnet arc) @TheMetricsGuild]

Hey, do you like Monad DeFi? Like, are you the type to wear a Kuru tee, https://t.co/tXXLf25kYL cap and Monorail trunks to work just like on dates too?
Then in this thread you'll find all the data you need on Monad DeFi, by outstanding guild member @Chisomdickson9 (follow him!)

[Pepperatzi @Chisomdickson9]

Data Lives and Breathe on every Ecosystem, an evidence of growth, an indicator for plans and a proof of working plans

Major protocols are live on the @monad testnet and would be live on mainnet.

I compiled data of the top protocols on the purple chain
Check it out 👇

[The Monad Metrics Guild (mainnet arc) @TheMetricsGuild]

@FamasHriday @MagmaStaking gmonad!

[The Monad Metrics Guild (mainnet arc) @TheMetricsGuild]

GMETRICS you bunch of mainnet waitooors!

🐉@MagmaStaking has recently put out a nice real-time MEV dashboard, and we thought that's a great opportunity to dumb down how MEV works on Monadvs Effirium.

Curious to have Monad MEV explained to you in ELI5 & 5 tweets? then read on!

[The Monad Metrics Guild (mainnet arc) @TheMetricsGuild]

@fortytwonetwork Fortytwo Swarm Inference is a decentralized AI model

[The Monad Metrics Guild (mainnet arc) @TheMetricsGuild]

In our next event, we'll try to answer these 3 questions for the best candidate apps that we picked according to Monad's criteria, and help you extract alpha with our analyses. We're excited for this!

Make sure to tune in the Monad Town Hall at 2PM UTC on Sunday Oct 19!!

[The Monad Metrics Guild (mainnet arc) @TheMetricsGuild]

Have you heard of Monad Momentum?

This new initiative could prove extremely bullish for the ecosystem down the road.

And we want to help you dig out alpha from it!

Next event (Oct 19), we'll try to predict the winners of Momentum.

But first let's take a closer look at it:

[The Monad Metrics Guild (mainnet arc) @TheMetricsGuild]

Successful testnet apps have been able to retain their loyal core user base over the months.

But volume does not always equal revenue, do these apps have a viable revenue model?

There isn't a one-size-fits-all definition for "organic" user behaviour, it's specific to every app.

[Pepperatzi @Chisomdickson9]

Data Reveal on @monad !!!

Mainnet Underway, Testnet still lives,

With a market order volume of over 169m $MON from over 2.7m distinct addresses in 42m transactions and a limit order volume of over 30m $MON placed by 110k distinct addresses

I present @ambient_finance

[The Monad Metrics Guild (mainnet arc) @TheMetricsGuild]

@Mar_dc8 @PinguExchange noté ! 🔥

[The Monad Metrics Guild (mainnet arc) @TheMetricsGuild]

As Monad mainnet gets seriously closer, now's a great time to take a look back at how your favourite Monad dApps have been doing with user retention over the last 3 months.

An app that's been consistently growing its daily user base is a quality signal of high potential once mainnet goes live (though not a definitive one). @lootgo_official clearly falls within that category!

ps: let us know in the comments what's your favourite Monad app, and we'll analyse their user retention!

[The Monad Metrics Guild (mainnet arc) @TheMetricsGuild]

@Jefreey93 roger🫡

[The Monad Metrics Guild (mainnet arc) @TheMetricsGuild]

Last, @Castora_xyz 's daily users have unfortunately been declining after peaking in early August.

[The Monad Metrics Guild (mainnet arc) @TheMetricsGuild]

Here @gorillionaireAI also shows consistent growth in daily users over the past 3 months:

[The Monad Metrics Guild (mainnet arc) @TheMetricsGuild]

@0xSuper_X @monadicoo @chainrunner__ Only big brains allowed

[The Monad Metrics Guild (mainnet arc) @TheMetricsGuild]

220 big brain nads? MONAD METRICS LOOKIN GUD HERE

👀

We started this event 6 months ago already, and it means a lot to still see more & more of you guys enjoying the event every time.

Now go touch grass before Sunday is over.

[The Monad Metrics Guild (mainnet arc) @TheMetricsGuild]

Hope you liked this thread, and see you next Sunday for another Testnet Metrics event in the Monad Town Hall at 2PM UTC! 😈

[The Monad Metrics Guild (mainnet arc) @TheMetricsGuild]

Bonus fact: you've certainly heard of the Monad BFT consensus mechanism before. One of its key features is that it prevents "tail forking": it sounds complicated, but what it entails is that the block cannot be reordered (and the MEV annihilated) after it's been proposed.