New Normal Consulting

Experienced advisers to major companies and financial institutions - with particular focus on rising impact of geopolitics and defence

[New Normal Consulting @ThepHReport]

We don't often use the word "impossible". But the ageing of the BabyBoomers in the world's richest economies means it is impossible for GDP to match the growth achieved during the Boomer SuperCycle, when the Boomers were in their Wealth Creator years https://t.co/5LZwt0qwJa

[New Normal Consulting @ThepHReport]

The World Bank, IMF, IEA and WTO are warning the crisis risks spiralling out of control: “Continued depletion of global oil inventories ahead of peak summer oil demand creates increasing risks for fuel security, market conditions and economic resilience.” https://t.co/M96UDPUWaJ

[New Normal Consulting @ThepHReport]

US inflation risks are rising as the Hormuz closure enters its 4th month. Inflation rose to 3.8% in April. It was just 2.4% in February before the US/Israel war began. And the upward trend is set to continue. https://t.co/utyOnpB2L8

[New Normal Consulting @ThepHReport]

Financial markets are assuming the Strait will reopen this month, and free passage resume in June. If this is delayed, the risks of a global downturn to rival 2008 are rising. https://t.co/sYcGpduof8

[New Normal Consulting @ThepHReport]

Petrochemical prices are warning of major inflation risks ahead due to the crisis in the Strait. They confirm we need to move back to a world of 'local-for-local' supply chains. The question is how quickly these can be put in place? https://t.co/KVq3OXZXUU

[New Normal Consulting @ThepHReport]

@robertshrimsley It just shows what a hopeless ego-driven bunch they are. Burnham will get wiped by Reform. Streeting hasn't got the 81 votes he needs to stand. And whilst I have sympathy for Rayner's back story and her son, that doensn't mean she'd be any good as a PM.

[New Normal Consulting @ThepHReport]

China is potentially in the ‘eye of the storm’ as smartphone component prices rise. This will force its manufacturers to raise their prices – just as the Strait of Hormuz closure forces consumers to cutback spending. https://t.co/hdtsKsfadW

[New Normal Consulting @ThepHReport]

A ‘wake-up call’ is now about to hit most Western governments. Critical oil and gas-based products are at increasing risk of becoming unaffordable, or unobtainable. https://t.co/PsJ0k9qXfU

[New Normal Consulting @ThepHReport]

The IMF is warning that "Heightened macro risks and the prospect of tighter monetary policy could trigger a sudden repricing by financial markets—with much lower asset valuations, higher risk premia, more capital flight, and dollar appreciation". https://t.co/BFddhaBctd

[New Normal Consulting @ThepHReport]

Europe is facing its first major supply crisis, on jet fuel. Prices have already doubled. And now the IEA is warning, “Several European countries may start to face shortages of jet fuel in the next 6 weeks". https://t.co/qGgO6p3Lrr

[New Normal Consulting @ThepHReport]

Europe is facing its first major supply crisis, on jet fuel. Prices have already doubled. And now the IEA is warning, “Several European countries may start to face shortages of jet fuel in the next 6 weeks". https://t.co/qGgO6p3Lrr

[New Normal Consulting @ThepHReport]

The history of energy crises suggests that today’s supply chain surge will likely be followed by recession. Buyers will suddenly start destocking again, as they realise consumer demand was actually slowing, whilst they were busy increasing inventory. https://t.co/GkIFe9nVxi

[New Normal Consulting @ThepHReport]

We are likely entering a very difficult few months. As the IEA warns, major changes in our lifestyles will be needed unless the war ends soon and the Strait of Hormuz reopens. https://t.co/qkCn5grWvE

[New Normal Consulting @ThepHReport]

Smartphone markets are essentially acting as the 'canary in the coalmine', warning us that the global economy is only at the start of suffering a major shock. https://t.co/9LB7dkBgy6

[New Normal Consulting @ThepHReport]

Today's oil/natural gas price rises will likely repeat previous 'boom and bust' cycles. Companies therefore need to (a) prepare for the short-term 'boom' and (b) plan in detail for the potential recessionary 'bust' which will follow it. https://t.co/Kphz61HrJM

[New Normal Consulting @ThepHReport]

The Middle East crisis highlights the need for Europe to rebuild its competitive edge. This will need new business models, to address today's market needs. And it will create major new opportunities for forward looking companies.
https://t.co/D3JW6Iydp8

[New Normal Consulting @ThepHReport]

The Strait of Hormuz has never been closed before. So we are in uncharted waters. And President Trump's plan to provide naval escorts to reopen it, creates a new element of risk. What would happen if an Iranian drone hit a US warship? https://t.co/YumUQt6acW

[New Normal Consulting @ThepHReport]

As the BBC warns: "The danger now is that President Trump, having amassed this powerful force close to Iran's borders, decides he must act or lose face. And a war begins with no clear end-state and with unpredictable and potentially damaging repercussions" https://t.co/t8IMqkc369

[New Normal Consulting @ThepHReport]

As the BBC warn: "The danger now is that President Trump, having amassed this powerful force close to Iran's borders, decides he must act or lose face, and a war begins with no clear end-state and with unpredictable and potentially damaging repercussions." https://t.co/Ixueg09928

[New Normal Consulting @ThepHReport]

As German Chancellor Merz emphasized, "We are confronted by a completely new geopolitical situation and we are willing to stand up to this geopolitical reality. But Europe will be able to hold its own only if we are competitive." https://t.co/5O8T4GcY8C

[New Normal Consulting @ThepHReport]

As German Chancellor Merz emphasized, "We are confronted by a completely new geopolitical situation and we are willing to stand up to this geopolitical reality. But Europe will be able to hold its own only if we are competitive." https://t.co/5O8T4GcY8C