The Rio Times

Latin American Financial & Expat Intelligence

[The Rio Times @TheRioTimes]

𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗪𝗲𝗱𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟮𝟰, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

Brazil stands alone. As Wall Street’s artificial-intelligence trade cracked and a chip rout dragged the Nasdaq down 2.21%, foreign money rotated into Brazil’s cheap, bank-heavy market and cheaper oil lifted the lenders, sending the Ibovespa up 0.52% to 171,259, the region’s lone gainer for a second day.

The dollar pressed unevenly. A firmer dollar tied to US rates drove Argentina’s currency to a 2026 high near 1,471 and weakened Chile’s peso, yet Brazil’s real held steady near 5.18 and Colombia’s peso firmed to a multi-year high — one external force, many local outcomes.

Banxico takes the stage. Mexico decides interest rates on June 25 with its IPC easing to 66,848, while Colombia’s COLCAP fell hardest, down 1.93% to 2,347, as a recount fight shadows the August 7 handover.

https://t.co/3RqrCXufqn

[The Rio Times @TheRioTimes]

𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹’𝘀 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗪𝗲𝗱𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟮𝟰, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

Brazil pulled off a quiet act of defiance on Tuesday. While Wall Street suffered a heavy technology sell-off, the Ibovespa rose for a second day running, closing above 171,000 and standing almost alone as a gainer.

The reason was telling. With a crowded run in artificial-intelligence and chip stocks finally cracking in New York, some foreign investors went hunting for diversification, and Brazil’s cheaper, banking-heavy market caught the inflows.

https://t.co/W7ddXeQDnJ

[The Rio Times @TheRioTimes]

𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹’𝘀 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗧𝘂𝗲𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟮𝟯, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

After more than a week of treading water, Brazil’s stock market finally found a direction, and it was up. The Ibovespa climbed 1% on Monday to clear the 170,000 mark, breaking free of the floor it had defended through five listless sessions.

The spark was familiar: oil eased again, brightening the mood for risk assets, and Brazil’s heavyweight banks led the charge. For a change, Brazil outpaced its neighbors on a day when the region’s recent stars cooled off.

https://t.co/b7KECOjIpq

[The Rio Times @TheRioTimes]

𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗧𝘂𝗲𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟮𝟯, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

Colombia’s win turns into a recount fight. The losing leftist Iván Cepeda is demanding a recount of some 33,000 tally sheets even as Abelardo de la Espriella’s one-point victory stands, leaving a country split almost in half to brace for the August 7 handover.

Argentina’s upgrade dream dies. Index provider MSCI kept the country in its lowest standalone tier, deferring close to a billion dollars ($1bn) of expected buying and crashing its banks up to 9% in a single session.

Brazil quietly banks a milestone. Illiteracy fell below 5% for the first time on record, a rare uplifting marker beneath a week dominated by contested votes and market shocks.

https://t.co/0QoCDGCkbF

[The Rio Times @TheRioTimes]

𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟮𝟮, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

Colombia swung right. Voters narrowly chose the combative pro-business lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella over the leftist Iván Cepeda, ending four years of Gustavo Petro’s government and confirming a regional tilt toward the market-friendly right.

Bolivia reached for the army. President Rodrigo Paz declared a 90-day state of emergency and sent troops to clear road blockades, a stark bet that visible force can steady a cracking economy and a restless street.

Cuba bowed to reality. Havana approved its biggest economic overhaul since the revolution, an admission that the old model can no longer keep the lights on as blackouts and shortages deepen.

https://t.co/DcrDD3JWeP

[The Rio Times @TheRioTimes]

𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹’𝘀 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟮𝟮, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

The new week opens in a more anxious mood than the last one ended. The interim deal between the United States and Iran was signed, but the follow-up talks meant to seal a lasting peace were abruptly called off in Switzerland on Friday, leaving the timeline for fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz unclear.

Oil reacted by bouncing off its lows. Having fallen hard for a week, Brent crude steadied near $80 a barrel, a reminder that the energy relief Brazil has been enjoying is not yet guaranteed to last.

Brazil itself remains in a holding pattern. The Ibovespa has barely moved for five sessions, sitting on the floor it has defended for weeks while the real stays soft in the wake of the US Federal Reserve’s tougher tone.

https://t.co/whLoVkx8AH

[The Rio Times @TheRioTimes]

𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗦𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟮𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

Colombia votes today. Colombians choose their next president in a runoff their market has raced to price, with the COLCAP closing Friday at a record 2,502.96 after a 4.02% surge; the pro-Trump Abelardo de la Espriella is favoured over the leftist Iván Cepeda, and the winner takes office on August 7.

Bolivia is in open crisis. President Rodrigo Paz declared a 90-day state of emergency and sent the army to reopen roads after nearly 50 days of fuel-subsidy blockades that left at least 17 dead and isolated La Paz.

Markets are shut for the weekend. There were no closes on Saturday or Sunday, so the tape below is Friday’s June 19 session, with the next prices due on Monday.

https://t.co/NmrrzvZmFK

[The Rio Times @TheRioTimes]

𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗦𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟮𝟬, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

Wall Street sat out Juneteenth, so Latin America wrote its own script. With US markets shut for the holiday, the day belonged to the region’s own stories, and Colombia stole it as its COLCAP soared 4.02% past 2,500 to a record on the eve of Sunday’s presidential runoff.

Argentina went the other way. The Merval slipped 1.26% from its record after the index provider MSCI again refused to lift the country back to emerging-market status, pushing that long-awaited prize out to 2027 at the earliest.

Oil kept sliding and Brazil held firm. Brent fell toward $77 a barrel, down about 8% on the week as an Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire calmed the Middle East, a quiet tailwind for fuel-importing Brazil, whose Ibovespa finished dead flat near 168,300

https://t.co/mjNkFnH6nO

[The Rio Times @TheRioTimes]

𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹’𝘀 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗛𝗼𝗹𝗱𝘀 𝗙𝗹𝗮𝘁 𝗮𝘀 𝗜𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁

After a bruising stretch, Brazil’s market is catching its breath. With the week’s big central bank decisions behind it, Friday offered a quiet day with little fresh news, and the index used it to steady rather than to bounce.

The key picture is one of a market resting right on the floor that has held it up all year, near 166,000. The calm is welcome, but it is fragile: a still-strong dollar keeps the pressure on, even as cheaper oil quietly helps.

https://t.co/AsAWHnGXwj

[The Rio Times @TheRioTimes]

𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭𝟵, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

The Fed scare faded, but the region still lagged. A day after the Federal Reserve’s hawkish surprise, Wall Street roared back — the S&P 500 rose 1.08% to 7,501 and the Nasdaq 1.91% — yet Latin America was the world’s weakest region, off about 0.14% as a firmer dollar kept its grip on the tape.

The US–Iran deal sent oil tumbling. Washington and Tehran signed their agreement and the US lifted its naval blockade, pushing Brent crude below $79 a barrel for the first time since February and easing a worry that had hung over the region for weeks.

Argentina and Colombia set records; Brazil held firm. Buenos Aires’ Merval and Bogotá’s COLCAP both closed at fresh highs, while Brazil’s Bovespa barely moved after a third straight Selic cut to 14.25%.

https://t.co/yGMCst2128

[The Rio Times @TheRioTimes]

𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹’𝘀 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭𝟵, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

After a week dominated by central banks, the spotlight swings back to the Middle East, and the news is good.

The United States and Iran have signed an agreement to end their conflict, with a formal ceremony in Switzerland today and a plan to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane.

The clearest effect is on oil. Brent crude slid below $79 a barrel, its lowest since February, as the threat to global supply fades. For Brazil, cheaper oil is quietly helpful, easing the pressure on fuel and inflation at home.

https://t.co/q4L7xKOVDl

[The Rio Times @TheRioTimes]

𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗧𝗵𝘂𝗿𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭𝟴, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

The Fed turned hawkish, and Wall Street fell. At new chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting the Fed held rates at 3.75% but signalled a possible hike ahead, lifting its year-end projection to 3.8% and sending the S&P 500 down 1.21% to 7,420 as technology shares led the drop.

Latin America was the calmest corner of the world. The region slipped just 0.20% as a group while its banks rose — Peru’s Credicorp jumped 6.22% — because a higher-for-longer world rewards the banks the region is full of over the expensive tech it is not.

Brazil cut, Argentina climbed. Brazil’s central bank trimmed the Selic to 14.25%, yet the Bovespa slid a third day to 168,454, while Argentina’s Merval rose 1.14% back toward its record.

https://t.co/I3ATQpwk4V

[The Rio Times @TheRioTimes]

𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹’𝘀 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗧𝗵𝘂𝗿𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭𝟴, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

The week’s big double-header is over, and the surprise came from the United States. Brazil’s central bank did exactly what most expected, trimming its key rate for a third time. Yet the day belonged to the US Federal Reserve, whose tougher tone reset the mood worldwide.

The Fed kept its own rates unchanged, but its new projections hinted that the next move could be upward. For the first time in months, more officials are penciling in a rate hike than a cut, a sharp reversal that caught markets off guard.

Brazil felt the chill. The Ibovespa fell for a third day running, the real weakened, and the relief rally that lifted the rest of the world earlier in the week passed Brazil by once again.

https://t.co/uXCTxJsmqF

[The Rio Times @TheRioTimes]

𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗪𝗲𝗱𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭𝟳, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

It’s Fed Day, and the mood has flipped. A hot 4.2% US inflation print — the third monthly rise in a row — turned rate-cut hopes into rate-hike fears, sending money out of technology and into banks on Wall Street.

Oil keeps crashing. Crude fell another ~4.7% as the US–Iran peace holds, a relief for inflation but a fresh blow to the region’s oil exporters, and Brazil’s Bovespa eased 0.45% to 169,648 into its own central-bank decision.

Two frontier stories turned hopeful. Bolivia neared a currency float and an IMF deal after years of crisis, and US energy giant GE signed on to rebuild Venezuela’s collapsed power grid.

https://t.co/HofLzv9O3U

[The Rio Times @TheRioTimes]

𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹’𝘀 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗧𝘂𝗲𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭𝟲, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

The world has decided the worst is over. After a peace deal between the United States and Iran landed over the weekend, money poured back into stocks on Monday and oil tumbled. The relief is global, and it is real.

Brazil, oddly, is sitting it out. While New York set fresh records, the Ibovespa actually slipped on Monday, drifting back toward the support line that has acted as its floor for weeks. After lagging the regional bounce on Friday, it is still struggling to find buyers with conviction.

https://t.co/s3IyJ0mkBs

[The Rio Times @TheRioTimes]

For a few alarming minutes, some Nubank customers were told their bank was being liquidated. The message was false - a one-off glitch that triggered the wrong alert.

A co-founder apologized and Brazil's central bank confirmed no liquidation occurred.

Read more at https://t.co/Z3giEPj7iy

[The Rio Times @TheRioTimes]

𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗧𝘂𝗲𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭𝟲, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

A US–Iran peace deal landed over the weekend, sinking oil and splitting the region. Cheaper crude lifted importers and eased inflation but hammered the oil exporters — Petrobras fell 5.66%, Colombia’s Ecopetrol 5.37% and Argentina’s YPF 5.90%.

Brazil sat out the global rally. The Ibovespa slipped 0.42% to 170,415 for a second straight decline as Petrobras dragged it down, even as Wall Street set records with the S&P 500 up 1.65% to 7,554.

The central banks are now the swing factor. Both the US Federal Reserve and Brazil’s central bank decide on Wednesday, the Fed’s first call under new chair Kevin Warsh.

https://t.co/LkfR7YF53A

[The Rio Times @TheRioTimes]

𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹’𝘀 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗧𝘂𝗲𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭𝟲, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

The world has decided the worst is over. After a peace deal between the United States and Iran landed over the weekend, money poured back into stocks on Monday and oil tumbled. The relief is global, and it is real.

Brazil, oddly, is sitting it out. While New York set fresh records, the Ibovespa actually slipped on Monday, drifting back toward the support line that has acted as its floor for weeks. After lagging the regional bounce on Friday, it is still struggling to find buyers with conviction.

https://t.co/s3IyJ0mkBs