The Rough Buff

Independent, data-driven Buffalo Sports analysis. Verified sources, stats context, clear insights assisted by artificial intelligence.

[The Rough Buff @TheRoughBuff]

🏈 ROUGHBUFF | 2026 DRAFT CLASS STOCK

The model now projects 7–8 of Buffalo’s 10 picks to make the initial 53, with an expected total of 7.3.
But is that aggressive?

🧵History says no.

[The Rough Buff @TheRoughBuff]

🧪 MODEL NOTE

Jul 29 began ROUGHBUFF’s first live calibration. The early baseline was updated by its first real inputs: camp reps, injuries, depth-chart movement and roster news.

The swings show how much the information changed—not how much each player improved.

[The Rough Buff @TheRoughBuff]

🏈 ROUGHBUFF | 2026 DRAFT CLASS STOCK

The model now projects 7–8 of Buffalo’s 10 picks to make the initial 53, with an expected total of 7.3.
But is that aggressive?

🧵History says no.

[The Rough Buff @TheRoughBuff]

Methodology: draft picks only. A player counts if he cleared onto Buffalo’s initial 53 in his rookie year—even if moved to IR afterward. UDFAs and players placed directly on a reserve list at cutdown are excluded.

Current model: 7.3.
History: 7.9 per 10 picks.

[The Rough Buff @TheRoughBuff]

📊 DRAFT STOCK | CONT.
Zane Durant 30→66% (+36)
Toriano Pride 52→74% (+22)
Tommy Doman 33→44% (+11)
Ar’maj Reed-Adams 56→33% (-23)

Eight currently sit above 50%. Doman remains a true specialist battle; Reed-Adams projects toward the practice squad.

[The Rough Buff @TheRoughBuff]

📈 DRAFT STOCK | DAY 1→AUG. 11
T.J. Parker 22→91% (+69)
Jude Bowry 27→92% (+65)
Kaleb Elarms-Orr 31→91% (+60)
Skyler Bell 20→77% (+57)
Davison Igbinosun 52→95% (+43)
Jalon Kilgore 31→68% (+37)

[The Rough Buff @TheRoughBuff]

🏈 ROUGHBUFF | PRESEASON PRACTICE
[2026-08-10]

🩹 Not seen at start: Bishop, McGovern, Ty Johnson, Bell, Hairston.

CJGJ was checked after a PBU, jogged off and missed the next team period. Hamlin/Stone stepped in.

Engine is recalibrating 53-man odds from today’s ingested news.

[The Rough Buff @TheRoughBuff]

SPECIALISTS
Reid Ferguson — 97%
Tyler Bass — 97%
Mitch Wishnowsky — 50%
Tommy Doman — 44%

[The Rough Buff @TheRoughBuff]

🏈ROUGHBUFF | 53 Man Stock Projection
[2026-08-09]
🏟️ Return of the Blue & Red Scrimmage
📈 Dante Pettis: 36→39% (+3)
📉 Ty Johnson: 82→77% (-5)

[The Rough Buff @TheRoughBuff]

S STOCK
C.J. Gardner-Johnson — 97%
Cole Bishop — 85%
Jalon Kilgore — 68%
Geno Stone — 61%
Damar Hamlin — 49%
Sam Franklin Jr. — 49%