Thomas Gumede

Head of Research, Founder: @topdowncharts Global Marco & Asset Allocation Research (tweets = for traders only)

[Thomas Gumede @ThomasGumede]

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[Thomas Gumede @ThomasGumede]

Fund managers are heavily overweight defensive assets, and underweight cyclical/risk-on assets

(not necessarily wrong, actually I would say the evidence supports this positioning, but interesting to see where consensus is among this group)

[Thomas Gumede @ThomasGumede]

🙂 "most underweight tech since 2006"

🙁 (halfway to where it got to in dot-com bust)

[Thomas Gumede @ThomasGumede]

US Dollar is Overvalued.

"Net 72% of FMS investors believe the US dollar is overvalued, the most on record..."

[Thomas Gumede @ThomasGumede]

We'll be sending out the "Chart Of The Week" soon

Check out last week's edition and subscribe (free) here:

[Thomas Gumede @ThomasGumede]

ICYMI: Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm blog post https://t.co/Kx6Fw2I9Wx…

Thanks + follow reco to chart sources:
#topdowncharts
#SPGlobalPMI
#Mayhem4Markets
#AlessioUrban
#ISABELNET_SA
#JohnPlassard
#IanRHarnett

[Thomas Gumede @ThomasGumede]

H2 has basically been a story of:
-pivot hope on
-pivot hope off

Market is currently in pivot-hope-on mode... Fed doesn't seem to be too happy about this. Not to say it won't last, but at some point Fed may opt to rug markets again to bring things back into line

[Thomas Gumede @ThomasGumede]

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 13 November 2022
by #Callum_Thomas #topdowncharts
https://t.co/Kx6Fw2I9Wx…
My two favorites from the 11 great charts this week.

[Thomas Gumede @ThomasGumede]

Bond survey on the other hand continuing its apparent uptrend, long-term basing pattern, hard lurch to the most bullish in 2yrs... is this "it" for bonds?

[Thomas Gumede @ThomasGumede]

survey data + charts available free, for your reference, here:

[Thomas Gumede @ThomasGumede]

Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):

[Thomas Gumede @ThomasGumede]

Equity survey not nearly as bullish as you might have expected, lot of skepticism on this rally...

[Thomas Gumede @ThomasGumede]

Charts from the weekly surveys by # Callum this week overall bulls vs bears ticked higher, but on both counts fundamentals + technicals sentiment were measured in their moves, not going full-bull...

[Thomas Gumede @ThomasGumede]

🧐 intriguing...

[Thomas Gumede @ThomasGumede]

Emerging Market Equity Technicals

Something interesting is going on in emerging market equities

After peaking in early 2021, the MSCI Emerging Markets index fell -35% from top to bottom in local currency terms (or -42% in US$ terms), but things are changing...

[Thomas Gumede @ThomasGumede]

big moves following CPI last week, a few of those markets were "ready" to turn anyway -- essentially looking for any excuse, could see extension of these moves: otherwise relatively quiet data week... (albeit with rolling crypto crises in the background)

[Thomas Gumede @ThomasGumede]

Still time to vote in the weekly surveys (I will post updated data + charts after final results)

[Thomas Gumede @ThomasGumede]

10. Global stocks vs bonds indicator saying 2 things:

-long way to go in the equity bear market

-odds are massively in favor of bonds beating stocks in the coming months/years

h/t #IanRHarnett

[Thomas Gumede @ThomasGumede]

9. Interesting follow-on, European investors appear to be very bearish on cyclicals vs defensives...

h/t #JohnPlassard

[Thomas Gumede @ThomasGumede]

8. Fund flows show outflow no-show

h/t #ISABELNET_SA

[Thomas Gumede @ThomasGumede]

7. Lend Me Your Ear(ning)s

Bank loan officers greater chance of saying "no" 🚫🙅‍♂️ = greater chance of earnings recession...

h/t #AlessioUrban $MACRO $SPX $SPY