τimothy

Only few understand

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[Mac 🐺 @MacnBTC]

We are almost at the end of January.

February has always been good for alts.

You have two months left to make it before even worse PVP than we have now IMO

Sell in May and walk away will likely be frontran by a month.

Meaning in April I will dump ALL my bags and going on a 7 month long holiday

[Ice @FroyoFren]

Feels like $TRUMP has broken the spirit of majority of market participants — even veterans worth 7-8 figs who have missed their fair share of 100x’s are posting like they’re spiritually damaged. Everyone’s drinking some sort of depression kool-aid. I call this mass hysteria caused by a few factors:

• $TRUMP is the fastest token ever to hit a multi-billion dollar mcap

• Everyone has been conditioned by a brutal bear for 3 years, then the bull even felt like a bear because of dispersion

• Majority are finally making *some* money only to see something that shatters their mental model of where they are in the cycle

• Market at a place where it’s closer to the top than the bottom — we used to talk about a cycle top being years away, but now it feels months away (seen estimates ranging from March, October, to EOY)

• Everyone feels like $TRUMP might cause the end of this industry as we know it in 3-4 years. ‘Last play of the Last cycle forever’ vibes.

• Ethereum has done absolutely nothing, and had its millshake drank by Sol and L2 liquidity dispersion. Long term Consensus bets got cooked.

Crypto has always been a deeply insecure industry. Every single cycle, events transpire which raise the probability of crypto never coming back again to 50%+. This is why there’s a tendency to spin narratives and tokens around powerful people, for example Elon Musk and now Trump. Nothing new under the sun — first doge/elon now trump/trump.

If you were around for the axie, Luna, sandbox, shib, solana, bnb (and so many more) run-ups, you know this is nothing — the only notable thing is the time it’s taken for $trump to hit multibillions. But what do you expect? He’s POTUS.

For the market today:

• Go look at where TOTAL3 is, and tell me we’ve topped and this is the last play ever. You can’t.

• SPX is +50% from the 2021 crypto top and you think there isn’t enough global liquidity to create at bare minimum the same conditions we saw in prior cycles?

• Best $SOL cooker of this cycle, the flows on this sent SOL to all time highs. The cycle got easier now because you know where to look.

• Silly to think ETH won’t make a new ATH — but when it does, we’re close to the end. Even in 2021, ETH hit the first ATH around a month after BTC (April/May). Cycle ended May 21 (only for a brief encore a few months later).

This is literally just the second $10b+ cooker this cycle. Last cycle there were like 50 (rough guess). But guess what? A lot of the money was actually made from second and third order effects.

BNB up huge -> Cake went to gorillions.
LINK up huge -> Vaporware oracles to gorillions.
Olympus up huge -> an entire season to ohm forks going to billions

And so on.

POTUS launches a $63B token -> every other token looks small in comparison

The ceiling just got blown right off what a ‘reasonable’ valuation for anything crypto is.

Easy money season starts now — just long the things that are going up.

And no, not the last cycle.

Pre.

[τimothy @Tim4150]

I’ve seen this somewhere before

[H.E. Justin Sun 👨‍🚀 🌞 @justinsuntron]

USDD 2.0 is about to launch with a 20% APY, fully subsidized by @trondao . All interest will be sent in advance to a transparent address. There’s no other reason—it’s simply because we have plenty of money. So, stop asking me questions like “where does the yield come from.”

[Tulip King 🌷 @tulipking]

https://t.co/so9zIxmYM4

[cevo @cryptocevo]

This is the most important phase of the bullmarket so take notes:

- Don't DCA in. You don't have time for that. Get in with conviction or not
- DCA out. Take profits on the way up. Don't think about selling the top. You can't do it anyway
- Focus on winners not losers
- Don't lock up your tokens. Fuck the staking rewards. Nothing is worse having tokens locked when the bull market is over
- Rotate minimum. Sit on your hands and don't chase every narrative. Can't catch them all and accept if something moves without you
- This is a marathon and not a sprint. So when the time comes, you must preserve capital at all cost to make life changing gains next cycle. Get rich slow
- When you decide to exit the markets completely, don't hold tokens because they didn't pump yet. They might not pump this cycle
- Cash out regularly. Make good connections with the bank and tell them your story. Act smart, even if you are not one. You need them if you want to do big investments outside of crypto
- Don't diversify a lot if your portfolio can't handle that. 100x with a $5 won't change your life.

I'll add to this post if something valuable comes to my mind

[Stockmoney Lizards @StockmoneyL]

As promised, we are now providing a detailed, unbiased analysis (as unbiased as it can be) on #Bitcoin.

A lot of people are confused right now.

"WWIII - we go to zero?"
"But halving, we go to moon?"
"New ATH usually means rally?"
"But interest rate hikes? Zero?"

A 🧵

[τimothy @Tim4150]

@BoonTeeEng Sifu buy new car?

[Lukas (computer) (In SF) 🔺 @SCHIZO_FREQ]

My first cycle was 2017. I had a prescription for vyvanse and I put it to good use no-lifing the whole run on discord 24/7. I had no idea "crypto twitter" existed back then, but I do now, and I've come to tell you a story about how I'm totally delusional.

Bitcoin peaked at 20k. By that point my portfolio was so big I couldn't even comprehend it, really. The most expensive thing I'd bought before in my life was my car, which cost 9k. My initial Coinbase deposit was $1200. Now I was sitting on enough to cover rent till I died. Not that I'd ever considered taking money out of the market. Why sell the future of finance right before it made you another 100x?

After that peak, bitcoin crashed 40% to 12k. My portfolio was mostly altcoins, which nuked down more like 80%.

I was confused - the coins went up because the tech was good, right? Everyone was writing articles about that. How could they suddenly become bad?

Over the next few days, things bounced back. We hit 17k again and my portfolio was back to 85% of its all-time-high. I dismissed the earlier decimation as a weird fluke, some sort of market error.

With our coins back near highs again, I was talking about new plays with friends in a discord call when an older guy joined. He was a bitcoin miner who'd been in the game since basically day 1.

"Guys, sell everything and don't even think the word 'crypto' for another 18 months. I don't wanna see you do what I did in 2013."

We asked him what he meant - "cycle?"

Did he not understand society was being reorganized around blockchain technology? Did he think things could just got back to how they were before? We had 100 questions.

"I'll never stop mining bitcoin. It'll come back. All this other shit - vertcoin, NULS? Going to 0. Actual 0. You will have to pay people to take it off your hands, and those people will laugh at you for buying it in the first place. Sell all that shit, set a timer for 12 months and when the alarm goes off you dump every cent you have back in bitcoin."

We wished him the best and thanked him for his advice, but nobody listened. He left the call and we agreed he was just too old to understand the revolutionary technology our altcoins were based on.

Over the next month, I proceeded to lose enough money it could've bought several houses.

I didn't even get liquidated trading, just holding coins that went down so fast it was basically the same as liquidation. Day after day after day. It was incomprehensible to me. I'd never seen the charts do that before. Support levels stopped mattering entirely, nothing bounced except bitcoin - and the bounces got sold into like mad, until they wicked the green daily back red and sent us even lower.

There wasn't a single buyer left.

Gradually, people from the discord stopped logging on. At the end it was just me and this totally insane guy. One time while he was saying something totally bizarre, I realized me being the last one sticking around with him probably market me as nuts too. An unpleasant thought, but quite hard to deny at this point. Bagholding multiple fake internet coins down 99% from their peaks is not normal behavior.

After accepting I was delusional, I sold my alts into bitcoin and sent it somewhere to forget about.

This next cycle, you're gonna be accosted by an infinite swarm of people exactly like me from 2017. You might even be one yourself.

They will tell you we've hit escape velocity, that we've created a new paradigm, that we've been institutionally adopted. They're sure that rehypothecation of digital assets brings permanent liquidity to the space and makes it impossible to go down ever again. They'll say shit we can't even imagine right now and they'll believe it completely.

Lots do it their first cycle. When you enter a market that's going up only for over a year straight, it is literally impossible for you to imagine it being any other way.

I have a few goals, based on this experience. I think they're probably decent for most other people too

1) Do not be 2017 Lukas. We go down later. It's not different now and it never will be.

2) Do not let your friends be 2017 Lukas. Most people will not be okay losing 98% of their net worth in one month. They will hate crypto and everyone they associate with it forever. This includes you, to a degree.

3) Make your friends take profits. They don't have to dump the whole stack, but just a little bit to get them used to the idea of selling. Last cycle I bought my 2 best friends AUGs. If I ever again refuse to take profits on a 50x, they know to come point the guns at me. They hope it won't come to that, but they also understand I'd prefer to be shot in my right arm or leg if it does.

3) Identify the Discord Bitcoin Wizards and obey their commands. There will be at least one point this cycle where a person says something to you that sounds completely retarded, but it'll actually be God himself speaking to you through that person's vessel. You have to seriously consider this possibility every time you hear something new. Accurately identifying and obeying the wizards will make you more money than every thread on airdrop farming combined.

4) Exit with at least 50% of your portfolio all-time high. This sounds like the easiest thing on the list but somehow it's 1000x more difficult than locating wizards disguised as retarded people.

Good luck. I love you all and we are going so much higher

[τimothy @Tim4150]

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[τimothy @Tim4150]

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