Crawfs

Intelligence gathering. Not financial advice.

[Crawfs @TimCrawfordCWM]

@wabi @wabi how are you going on this idea?

[Crawfs @TimCrawfordCWM]

@wabi build me a net worth calculator and retirement projection tool for a New Zealander with a large traditional asset & liability base

[Daniel Lacalle Official Account @dlacalle_IA]

The upcoming monetary tsunami.

JP Morgan echoes what I have said for months about the upcoming "monetary tsunami."

Therefore, why does a higher money supply not lead to an inflationary burst? This is due to a decline in money velocity and a moderating trend in government spending, which was the primary driver of inflation from 2021 to 2024. Hence, money growth is private sector led, which is not inflationary when money velocity is stable or declines.

I would expect an increase in asset prices and a decrease in core and headline consumer prices.

via JP Morgan

[Crawfs @TimCrawfordCWM]

8/10 Tailwinds: GDP boom, $IWM rotation (+6% YTD), BOJ -2% reals, Trump MBS intervention = repression firing. Gold/silver lead, $BTC next. Stress test green: $MSTR premium 0.91-1.03x (undervalued), real yields 1.88-1.91% (downtrend).

[Crawfs @TimCrawfordCWM]

7/10 Probabilities: High asymmetry, but risks real (Warsh hawk 21-38%, vol decay, SLR traps).
- Short (to '26): 60-80% (catalysts: Hassett nom, MBS buys)
- Medium ('27-30): 50-70% (inflation >4%, $BTC $500k+)
- Long ('31-35): 40-60% (regime sustains, $BTC $5-15M+)

[Crawfs @TimCrawfordCWM]

@tyler You are more than welcome in New Zealand!

[Crawfs @TimCrawfordCWM]

@MarioNawfal 👋I am one of those helping people with a NZ Plan B residency or move. Let me know if you need any help

[Crawfs @TimCrawfordCWM]

@jam_croissant https://t.co/EHtMjh1JpY

[Crawfs @TimCrawfordCWM]

@benkellyone Guide

[Crawfs @TimCrawfordCWM]

@stevehou Access to chips?

[Crawfs @TimCrawfordCWM]

@Norseman1 Really enjoyed following along. Excellent analysis thank you.

[Crawfs @TimCrawfordCWM]

@Citrini7 Were any collected and were they in Yangs dumplings

[Crawfs @TimCrawfordCWM]

@AlessioTMAD How do you learn about this stuff? What was your journey to knowing where to look?

[Crawfs @TimCrawfordCWM]

@Citrini7 Very very well said

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Willis from New Zealand: Safe haven in an unstable world