Tip Tide

[Tip Tide @TipTidePayments]

Warsh will probably hike 25 BPS then down play the need to fight inflation aggressively, indicating the rate hike should not be perceived as an ongoing trend.

[Investment Neighbor @investnextdoor]

@DeItaone The best thing for Warsh to do considering these expectations is to hike.

Not doing so risks creating additional adverse assumptions.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

FED: WHAT WALL STREET EXPECTS FROM WARSH TODAY

Major banks are focused on how Kevin Warsh frames the path ahead if the Fed hikes today:

Barclays: Expects Warsh to stress solid growth, near-full employment and inflation still too high, broadly maintaining his previous hawkish message.

BMO: Sees Warsh remaining non-committal on additional hikes, framing modest tightening now as risk management to avoid larger hikes later.

BofA: Warns Warsh faces a difficult balance. Signaling sequential hikes could make markets price 100bp+ of tightening, while a “dovish hike” could undermine confidence in the Fed’s 2% target.

Citi: Expects little additional forward guidance, with Warsh reiterating that inflation remains a problem and there is still “work to do.”

Deutsche Bank: Wants clarity on how much additional tightening may be required. Warsh could frame the cycle as reversing last year’s 75bp of risk-management cuts and returning policy to a sufficiently restrictive stance.

Goldman Sachs: Expects Warsh to emphasize carefully assessing incoming data, potentially waiting for multiple inflation reports before deciding on another move.

JPMorgan: Expects limited policy detail but sees potential for Warsh to focus more heavily on economic data than in his previous press conferences.

Nomura: Expects no explicit guidance on the next move, with policy remaining highly sensitive to monthly inflation data.

Standard Chartered: Expects scrutiny over tariffs and inflation, questioning whether tariff effects are temporary and whether the Fed should wait for clearer evidence before tightening further.

TD: Believes that if the Fed hikes today, additional tightening is likely in the pipeline, leaving Warsh with a difficult communication challenge.

UBS: Expects little forward guidance, but says a hike itself would strengthen Warsh’s ability to deliver hawkish rhetoric.

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

JUST IN: Pentagon CTO says the US should not take stakes in AI companies

[Entrepreneur @WallSTQuon]

Bookmark this.

Big tech is not cutting jobs because they validated US AI can replace them.

They are doing so to keep up with the rising cost of offering & developing AI tech which is really behind performance benchmarks.

Similar to Zuckerberg all in then quiet flee from VR/AR.

[Tip Tide @TipTidePayments]

@unusual_whales @josephwang @super_macro @stevehou If not then markets may tank under the assumption that economy is very weak.

Tough decision for the FOMC today.

[Entrepreneur @WallSTQuon]

If the Fed doesn’t hike rates today, what can we conclude about this oh so strong economy?

[La-Shan Graham @Shang1203]

That it may be to opposite of “oh so strong”

[La-Shan Graham @Shang1203]

@zerohedge Then investors figure the economy must be weak and markets tank.

[Tip Tide @TipTidePayments]

Markets Tank 📉

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

What If Warsh Shocks The Market And Keeps Rates On Hold https://t.co/OJ18dUcGDx

[Tip Tide @TipTidePayments]

🎯

[Entrepreneur @WallSTQuon]

@saylor We don’t want your chuck E Cheese coin policy becoming legislation.

Your industry is pushing for a financial control system and disguising it as De-centralized financed.

No financial model in history has ever been more centralized.

[Investment Neighbor @investnextdoor]

The Token parasites are dedicated to the monetary robbery.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

US construction spending has hit the lowest since 2023, particularly in residential and manufacturing, per Bloomberg.

[Tip Tide @TipTidePayments]

Then they’ll pat themselves on the back and say:

“We have taken a proven stance to combat inflation with today’s puny and too late rate hike.”

Kevin too late.

[Entrepreneur @WallSTQuon]

@cryptorover Hike a miniature amount or hold the same.

No significant changes will come.

From the fed at least.

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

What will the Fed decide today?

Rate hike, hold, or cut?

[Tip Tide @TipTidePayments]

Agreed.

Initiating a financial system solely based on digital tokens is a scam and set up for Technical security failure or control.

[Entrepreneur @WallSTQuon]

@saylor We don’t want your chuck E Cheese coin policy becoming legislation.

Your industry is pushing for a financial control system and disguising it as De-centralized financed.

No financial model in history has ever been more centralized.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

With CLARITY stalled, I expect the SEC, CFTC, and Treasury to advance rules under existing law, banks to expand Bitcoin custody and loans against it, and more capital to favor Bitcoin and digital credit. GENIUS supports stablecoin adoption. Progress need not wait for Congress.

[Entrepreneur @WallSTQuon]

@GrantCardone If your indicating were in a similar scenario you’re not only mistaken but you are in for a rude awakening.

The only thing similar to 2008 will be the crash in all Real Estate.

Even that will be far more significant in a much more expensive borrowing environment..

[Tip Tide @TipTidePayments]

@WallSTQuon @TheDefiantGhost Agreed.

If this is planned internal destruction it would create a whole lot more problems for future plans.

[Tip Tide @TipTidePayments]

✅

[Investment Neighbor @investnextdoor]

@Barchart Beware of the brief pullback as Fed Warsh administers a soft hike to persuade markets he’s serious on inflation.

It’ll be short lived, but the short-term volatility may pause the upward trend briefly.

[Barchart @Barchart]

Diesel jumps to highest price in history 📈 📈

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

US Energy Secretary: Saudi Pipeline Could Be Back In Service Within Days https://t.co/WnlfS4iMBd