Post-crypto investor, Now doomsday Sayer.
Stock trader only puts & shorts NO LONGS.
Independent thinker. Anti-Crowd player.
Not an NPC a life video game player.
The systemic risk developing on $btc with all these corps turning into treasuries with btc on the balance sheet is nuts. The cascade of sell pressure with no buyers will be epic!!!! No one sees the dead canary. Pretty bird. Such a pretty bird.
The Nasdaq is tracking the dot-com era almost candle for candle.
Two cycles, 875 trading days each:
โ Nasdaq from Netscape IPO (Dec '94) to peak: +144.55%
โ Nasdaq from ChatGPT launch (Nov '22) to today: +144.77%
Within 0.22 percentage points. Same arc. Same slope.
What makes this almost poetic is how cleanly the next 12-18 months overlap with three real-world catalysts pointing the same direction:
1. Mid-term seasonality. Year three of the presidential cycle is historically the strongest. The pre-election summer is historically the wobble before that strength.
2. A new Fed chair. Powell's term ends in May 2026. Markets always test a new chair. 1987 (Greenspan), 2018 (Powell himself) โ both saw sharp drawdowns within months of the handover.
3. IPO supply absorption. SpaceX, Stripe, Databricks, Anthropic, OpenAI โ the largest private companies in history are queuing up. Late-1999 saw the same dynamic. The market has to digest the float before it can melt up.
If history rhymes, the playbook looks like this:
โ A messy summer of volatility
โ A scary autumn that shakes out weak hands
โ Then a vertical melt-up into 2027-2028
โ Apply the dot-com multiple from this point: S&P 500 around 10,000
This isn't a prediction. It's a pattern.
The technology cycles change. The behaviour doesn't.
The melt-up usually comes before the meltdown.
And in 1999, almost nobody sold the top.
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