The Kobeissi Letter

Backup account for @KobeissiLetter.

[The Kobeissi Letter @TKLBackUp]

Ladies and Gentlemen, our original Twitter account has been restored after three long months!

We will be shifting back to that account (@KobeissiLetter) and look forward to continuing our contributions to FinTwit.

Please follow us on our new account @KobeissiLetter and RT!

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Good afternoon,

After three long months, our Twitter account has been restored and is now fully functioning!

A HUGE thank you everyone that helped raise awareness during this process!

Going forward, this will be our official Twitter account (@KobeissiLetter).

Best,
Adam K.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The IPO market is about to make history:

Anthropic's pre-IPO stock, one of the most anticipated IPOs of all time, now has an implied market cap of $851 billion on Jupiter.

In October 2025, the value of a share of Anthropic's pre-IPO stock on Jupiter was as low as ~$122.

Just 7 months later, and these shares are up nearly +640%, to ~$900.

These pre-IPO shares are structured instruments backed 1:1 by SPV exposure, giving investors direct price exposure to Anthropic before the IPO launches, allowing the market to dictate potential valuation.

Between SpaceX's anticipated $1.7+ trillion IPO and both Anthropic and OpenAI targeting $1+ trillion, the IPO market is about to witness history.

The AI Revolution is accelerating.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US and Iran will hold in-person peace talks on Saturday in Pakistan, per Fox News.

The US delegation includes JD Vance, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.

The Iranian delegation includes Foreign Minister Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Perplexity's revenue has reportedly surged +50% in one month after shifting into AI agents, per FT.

As a result, Perplexity's revenue has doubled in one quarter to more than $450 million in ARR.

This follows Anthropic's push into the space which said its ARR hit $19 billion at the end of February.

AI agents are skyrocketing in popularity.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

ANNOUNCEMENT:

Yesterday, the below user plagiarized our analysis and posted our "Conflict Playbook" as their own work.

Following formal legal notice from The Kobeissi Letter's counsel, the user has removed the post and acknowledged the unauthorized use of our content. The user has further agreed to cease all reproduction and distribution of our intellectual property without authorization.

This serves as a reminder that all content published by The Kobeissi Letter is protected and actively monitored.

We are also actively identifying and pursuing accounts and individuals engaging in impersonation or misrepresentation of our brand.

We will continue to pursue enforcement actions against any unauthorized use of our work, brand, and image, including through formal takedown procedures and all available legal remedies.

Thank you.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The odds of the US Pentagon banning Claude surge to 49% as Anthropic denies Defense Secretary Hegseth’s “final offer.”

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: In a new release, Contra announces that AI agents can now officially purchase products and services from independent creators and freelancers.

AI-driven commerce officially arrived.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Crypto markets have now erased -$1 TRILLION in market cap since January 14th.

That's -$1 trillion in market cap in 22 days, or -$45 billion per day.

There has never been more noise in capital markets than now.

Eliminate the noise.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: ETH drops below $2,000 for the first time since May 2025, now down -32% YTD.

Bitcoin is now below $68,000 and down -22% YTD.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

@XCreators @grok There has never been more noise in capital markets than now.

Eliminate the noise. Use Grok.

https://t.co/ldb4EWd74y

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The odds of Elon Musk becoming a trillionaire this year surge to a new high of 72% after SpaceX acquires xAI, per Polymarket.

2026 is going to be a historic year on many fronts.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

If Elon Musk paid a 50% premium to Ryanair shareholders, he could buy the entire company for ~$53 billion.

This would be just 7% of his total net worth.

It's time for X to launch an airline, XAir.

@elonmusk

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US Supreme Court's ruling on President Trump's tariffs is expected as soon as 24 hours from now.

There is currently just a 27% chance that the Supreme Court rules Trump's tariffs are LEGAL, per Polymarket.

Trump says an "illegal" ruling would be "a complete mess."

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Tokenized stocks are quietly exploding onchain:

Trade volumes of tokenized public stocks are now at a record high of $800 million per month.

As a result, liquidity in tokenized assets is rapidly expanding.

@JupiterExchange, the world's largest onchain platform, is now seeing close to $200 million in monthly volume in these assets.

Robinhood has described tokenized assets as a "freight train" coming to all major markets.

This comes just 2 months after the Nasdaq's crypto chief said they are "moving as fast as they can" to get SEC approval for trading tokenized stocks.

TradFi assets are moving onchain at a historic pace.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

ANNOUNCEMENT:

We are excited to present The Kobeissi Letter’s 2025 performance report.

Our analysis provided a net return of +30.7% in 2025, outperforming the S&P 500's 2025 return of +16.4%.

Since 2020, our investment strategy has now returned +516.3%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s +111.9% return over the same period.

Our 2025 return builds on +8.1% in 2024, +15.5% in 2023, +92.8% in 2022, +35.3% in 2021, and +44.8% in 2020.

Since 2020, our analysis has delivered a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of +35.4%, outperforming the S&P 500’s +13.3% CAGR.

Read the full annual report here:

https://t.co/p5CVL5ZckU

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US Supreme Court decides to NOT release a highly anticipated ruling on the legality of President Trump's tariffs today.

The odds of President Trump's tariffs being ruled as LEGAL surge to 31%.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Gold futures surge above $4,500/oz as geopolitical tensions rise and uncertainty around protests in Iran drives a flight to safety.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US Supreme Court's ruling on President Trump's tariffs is expected as soon as today, with a 74% chance of tariffs being ruled illegal, per Polymarket.

Trump has asked Americans to "pray" that the Supreme Court does not rule his tariffs to be illegal.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US economy adds 50,000 jobs in December, below expectations of 66,000.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, below expectations of 4.5%.

November's unemployment rate was also revised down from 4.6% to 4.5%.

The Fed is set to pause interest rate cuts.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Solana stablecoin supply surges by over +$900 million in 24 hours.

This comes as Jupiter, the world's largest onchain platform, launched its onchain-focused stablecoin and Morgan Stanley filed for a spot Solana ETF.

Crypto flows are rising again.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones announce an exclusive partnership with Polymarket.

Under the partnership, the platform will publish real-time market data on financial event contracts.