Someone trained a swarm model on 3 years of NBA data and let it loose on Polymarket
The result: $1.49M. He didn't build a better model. He built a better crowd.
Here's how the system actually works.
He takes MiroFish - an open-source engine that simulates thousands of AI agents and feeds it raw sports data.
The actual building blocks:
> Player stat vectors: points, rebounds, assists, eFG%, usage rate across 3 full seasons
> Team form tensors: last 10 games, home/away splits, pace-of-play, defensive rating
> Matchup history: head-to-head records, positional mismatches, referee tendencies
> Injury probability models: medical staff reports weighted by recovery timelines
> Line movement tracking: where the sharp money flows before tip-off
Check how this wallet works:
https://t.co/zdwILSmmpc
MiroFish generates 4,096 agents - analysts, bettors, insiders, oddsmakers - each with different reasoning. They argue, form clusters, shift opinions. Consensus emerges.
He pipes that consensus into a 12-layer transformer trained on the full history of his 16,695 predictions.
The model compares MiroFish output against live Polymarket odds. When the gap exceeds his Kelly criterion threshold, it enters.
Lakers at 40 cents. MiroFish said 62%. One position: $190,823.
The edge isn't data. Every sharp has data. The edge is simulating how 4,000 fake humans process it - before the real crowd does.
@cryptolyxe After Trumps tweet of calling out most major business being involved with Epstein, looks like a lot of people (orgs) are panicking and selling
@theunipcs You can’t really expect much nowadays. Every account has a checkmark yet most accounts are incredibly immature. At the end of the day, you’re not forcing anyone to make the trade. If people are hate messaging you because they followed your call and it suddenly tanked, it shows..
@kkashi_yt 🤦♂️. If you’re transferring anything, let alone 500k, always copy from the actual wallet and not the history. What a fumble and W for the poisoner.