Toby Greenberg @tobygreen35 - Twitter Profile

16 days ago

RT @CuriousMacroX: Silver has tested $70 five times but the sixth attempt was different But does that actually mean anything? 👇 The first…

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TobyGreen35 retweeted

Curious | Macro Lens

@CuriousMacroX

29 days ago

PPI looked cool at first glance Underneath the headline, it wasn’t quite that simple 👇 After yesterday’s calm CPI report today gave the market another encouraging inflation headline US producer prices were unchanged in July Markets had expected a 0.2% increase So at first glance this looked like exactly the kind of follow-up the Fed would have wanted Consumer inflation stayed relatively calm yesterday And now producer inflation appeared to do the same But the details make that story less straightforward 🔹 A lot of the softness came from goods Final demand goods fell 0.7% Energy prices dropped 3.1% Food prices moved lower too That was enough to keep the overall PPI number flat So the headline was soft But a large part of that softness came from categories that can move sharply from one month to the next 🔹 Services told a different story Final demand services still rose 0.2% And once food, energy and trade services are stripped out underlying producer inflation rose 0.4% That was up from just 0.1% in June So underneath the headline price pressure actually became a little firmer That is the part worth paying attention to Because if lower energy prices are helping at the top while service costs and underlying producer prices continue to rise the inflation picture is improving just not evenly 🔹 That leaves the Fed with a better picture but not a clean one This week started with an important question Is inflation cooling enough to give the Fed more room if the economy continues to weaken? CPI moved the answer a little closer to yes The headline PPI number does too But today’s report also shows why the Fed cannot simply look at the 0.0% headline and declare victory There is still price pressure further underneath the economy It is just being offset for now by weakness elsewhere And gold and silver are treating that mixed message in much the same way Gold is still hovering around the $4,400 zone Silver is still holding around $65 with $67 remaining the next major area above So far neither metal is showing much urgency after the release Which actually fits the report quite well The headline was softer the details were firmer And for now the metals are doing much the same thing Holding their ground without giving us a decisive reaction either way

CuriousMacroX's tweet photo. PPI looked cool at first glance
Underneath the headline, it wasn’t quite that simple 👇

After yesterday’s calm CPI report
today gave the market another encouraging inflation headline

US producer prices were unchanged in July
Markets had expected a 0.2% increase

So at first glance
this looked like exactly the kind of follow-up the Fed would have wanted

Consumer inflation stayed relatively calm yesterday
And now producer inflation appeared to do the same

But the details make that story less straightforward

🔹 A lot of the softness came from goods

Final demand goods fell 0.7%
Energy prices dropped 3.1%
Food prices moved lower too

That was enough to keep the overall PPI number flat
So the headline was soft

But a large part of that softness came from categories that can move sharply from one month to the next

🔹 Services told a different story

Final demand services still rose 0.2%

And once food, energy and trade services are stripped out
underlying producer inflation rose 0.4%

That was up from just 0.1% in June

So underneath the headline
price pressure actually became a little firmer

That is the part worth paying attention to

Because if lower energy prices are helping at the top
while service costs and underlying producer prices continue to rise
the inflation picture is improving
just not evenly

🔹 That leaves the Fed with a better picture
but not a clean one

This week started with an important question

Is inflation cooling enough to give the Fed more room if the economy continues to weaken?

CPI moved the answer a little closer to yes
The headline PPI number does too

But today’s report also shows why the Fed cannot simply look at the 0.0% headline and declare victory

There is still price pressure further underneath the economy
It is just being offset for now by weakness elsewhere

And gold and silver are treating that mixed message in much the same way

Gold is still hovering around the $4,400 zone

Silver is still holding around $65
with $67 remaining the next major area above

So far
neither metal is showing much urgency after the release

Which actually fits the report quite well

The headline was softer
the details were firmer

And for now
the metals are doing much the same thing

Holding their ground
without giving us a decisive reaction either way

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Toby Greenberg @TobyGreen35

about 2 years ago

@WarnieDT Hey legend, big time follower, first time commenter on Twitter. Would love an urgent review into my team and get it changed if possible. 🙏I had manna looped all week with Dowling on field and for some reason my team switched it… the app stuffed up. :(( need a win to make finals