Tom Jack

Power trading & macroeconomics. Following updates in clean power and nat gas markets; fitness & wellness; Bitcoin, Strategy, Tesla

[Tom Jack @TomJohnDohn]

go HAM

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

NEW: $15 trillion BlackRock says AI agents may choose to save in #Bitcoin for "long-term value preservation" 👀

"These findings ... point to a potential AI-native monetary architecture in which stablecoins serve as transactional money and bitcoin as a store of value." 👏

[Tom Jack @TomJohnDohn]

@elonmusk Energy is life @DoombergT

[David @david_eng_mba]

$BTC Projected Trend: $154K EOY 2026 → $1.16M in 8 Years.

Bitcoin is $84.9K.
My fitted power-law trend is $142.4K.

That’s 40% below trend and 68% upside if the gap closes.

This morning’s picture:

• 200-week average: $65.8K
• 400-day average: $82.6K
• 1,510-day adoption average: $62.6K, up 4.76% in 90 days
*This is structurally meaningful.

• Tracked 30-day net inflows: +$2.3B

Price is above both the 200-week and 400-day averages.

The long-term baseline is rising. Tracked capital flows are positive.

The bullish case has two parts: price recovers toward trend, and the trend itself keeps rising.

If historical scaling persists, the fitted trend reaches $154K this December and $1.16M in October 2034, with 28.7% modeled annual growth over the next decade.

Today’s 68% gap is measured against today’s trend. The longer term opportunity includes where that trend goes next.

#Bitcoin

[The Block @TheBlockCo]

THE BLOCK: Bitcoin has closed the week above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, Galaxy Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn said.

Reclaiming the 50-week moving average has historically served as a "strong confirmation" that the bear market has hit its bottom, according to Thorn. bitcoin:native

[Tom Jack @TomJohnDohn]

🔥

[Thoughtful Money® @thoughtfulmoney]

Both @LukeGromen & @DariusDale42 think the trajectory we're on eventually ends in a painful, inflationary breakdown, preceded by a bond market crisis

So I ask them: how close to the end do you think we are?

Find out. WATCH: https://t.co/FjGiUHbeO8

[David @david_eng_mba]

$77K $BTC: THIS ASYMMETRY IS RIDICULOUS

Bitcoin: $77K
200-week SMA: $65K
P10 structural statistical floor: $66K
Power-law trend: $141K

The important part is not that BTC is down.

It’s where it is down to.

Price is now sitting only ~15% above long-term structural support, while still ~45% below trend.

That creates a very different payoff:

Down to structural support: ~15%
Back to trend: +82%

And the floor keeps rising with adoption and time.

So the bear case needs something fundamental to break.

The bull case only needs the long term adoption curve to keep doing what it has been doing.

Fixed supply. Rising structural floor. Huge gap back to trend.

That is the asymmetry.

[Tom Jack @TomJohnDohn]

@FTChinese still got it

[Adam Back @adam3us]

#bitcoin passes $65k 200wma https://t.co/6W3RSiLkB3

[Grain of Salt @GrainofSaltSF]

Golden Cross on Bitcoin, in a few weeks, assuming the trend continues. Bullish

[David @david_eng_mba]

$BTC: TREASURY TIPPED ITS HAND

As a former commodity trader, I can tell you this is a huge psychological hit to traders. In fact, it changes everything.

30Y yield: 5.34%.

Hours later, Treasury doubled long-duration buybacks from $2B to $4B+.

Not QE. No new reserves.

But the signal is clear:

Treasury is willing to lean against disorderly long-rate spikes.

If inflation stays high while long yields are capped, the adjustment moves into real purchasing power.

That favors scarce assets.

Gold up. BTC up. Long yields still high.

That is the financial repression trade.

What this means:
Washington's tolerance for currency debasement is greater than its tolerance for higher long-term interest rates.

Bullish $BTC

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

Bitcoin now moving up near $73,000.

The shorts are getting absolutely BRUTALIZED.

Shorting the world's greatest growth asset at the 200 Week Moving Average?

You deserve all of the pain coming your way.

bitcoin:native

[Tom Jack @TomJohnDohn]

@_The_Prophet__ 🤣🤣

[Adam Back @adam3us]

#bitcoin passes $64k 200wma
https://t.co/2B16PnkBtA

[Tom Jack @TomJohnDohn]

Bitcoin was made for the era of digital fiat monetary debasement, and will thrive in an economy of autonomous AI agents

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

⚡️Bitcoin is not going to zero.

And The World Gold Council’s CEO is missing something massive:

Bitcoin exists in the same substrate where more and more of civilization is moving:

Computation.

Gold belongs naturally to a world organized around physical possession. Its scarcity comes from geology. Ownership ultimately resolves to custody. Moving it requires logistics. Verifying it requires assay. Large-scale settlement requires vaults, banks, receipts, and institutions layered above the metal.

The civilization forming around us is increasingly organized around information: AI agents, software, digital identities, global networks, autonomous companies, machine-to-machine commerce, tokenized assets, instantaneous capital movement.

In that world, an important property changes:

Economic actors increasingly need assets that machines themselves can verify, possess, and transfer.

Bitcoin already lives there.

An AI agent cannot pick up a gold bar and independently settle it with another agent in Singapore. It needs a custodian to tell it the gold exists and a legal system to transfer the claim.

Bitcoin can be verified by software, held through cryptographic keys, transferred globally, and settled on its native ledger. No translation from physical asset into digital representation is required.

Gold can be digitized, but then you own a digital claim on gold. Somewhere underneath the abstraction, somebody guards the metal.

Bitcoin begins as the digital bearer asset itself.

And that becomes more consequential as civilization gets more machine-mediated.

Imagine an economy with billions of autonomous AI agents buying compute, energy, data, services, intellectual property, bandwidth, and labor from one another. Their economic world operates at machine speed, across borders, twenty-four hours a day.

They need monetary objects with properties compatible with that environment:

globally addressable
machine-verifiable
digitally scarce
divisible
permissionless to transfer
independent of business hours
settled without physical delivery

Bitcoin was born with those properties.

Gold was monetary scarcity optimized for a civilization of atoms. Bitcoin is monetary scarcity optimized for a civilization increasingly made of information.

And there is an even deeper layer.

Human civilization spent thousands of years trying to make information correspond faithfully to physical value. Paper represented metal. Bank ledgers represented paper. Electronic balances represented bank liabilities.

Bitcoin does something historically strange:

The information itself becomes the scarce bearer object.

There is no physical thing hiding underneath it that the ledger merely describes.

The ledger and the monetary asset belong to the same computational reality.

That is what gold can never become without ceasing to be gold.

And if economic life continues migrating into machines, networks, and autonomous software, that distinction becomes larger with time.

Bitcoin does not merely live on the internet.

It is money whose ontology already assumes the internet-age world.

That is the signal.

[Tom Jack @TomJohnDohn]

@cryptorover Lessons learned on position sizing and avoiding temptation of leverage. Importance of diversification. Bitcoin is attractive now as a deep value bet. As the economy transitions to the age of abundance, Bitcoin will regain relative value for its absolute scarcity @jvisserlabs

[Tom Jack @TomJohnDohn]

Beautiful consolidation

[Tom Jack @TomJohnDohn]

@hendry_hugh diabolical

[Tom Jack @TomJohnDohn]

Let the daily DCA continue

[David @david_eng_mba]

$BTC: The Setup for a Violent Move Higher Is Forming

Bitcoin: $64K

The market is paying heavily for downside protection.

But underneath:

Funding: 1.9%
Gamma flip: $63.2K
Max gamma: $65K
Call wall: $70K

There is no major leverage bubble.

There is no extreme negative-gamma stress.

But there is a lot of fear.

A modeled +5% breakout generates roughly $303M of dealer buying.

That means once Bitcoin gets through the current options structure, dealers can go from absorbing the move to chasing it higher.

Fear below.
Convexity above.

$70K is not just resistance.

It could be the spring board.

[Jordi Visser @jvisserlabs]

The U.S. and Japan just coordinated to support the yen for the first time since 1998.

Most major macro inflection points happen during obvious crisis.

This one did not.

Equities were near highs.
Credit spreads were tight.
The VIX was calm.
There was no banking panic.
No recession signal screaming from markets.

That is what makes it important.

The signal is contextual.

Sovereign debt burdens are rising.
Long-term yields are pressuring policy.
The AI infrastructure buildout requires enormous capital.
The labor market is weakening beneath the surface.
And gold has responded with the type of move that says something important is happening.

This is not 1998 repeating.

It is something different.

The aging credit-backed fiat system is colliding with an AI-fueled digital economy that is moving exponentially faster than the policy architecture built to finance it.

The next intersection is crypto.

AI agents are coming into the financial system.
They will transact, allocate, settle, and move money at machine speed.
That world will need digital collateral, digital settlement, and digital guardrails.

That is why Bitcoin matters in this next phase.

The yen was the signal.

Gold confirmed the pressure.

Crypto is where the AI Macro Nexus goes next.

New post: The Yen Signal
https://t.co/hGZ3HGF4Q4