Tom Parkhill

DCM Reading West and Mid Berkshire Conservatives. Former Cllr previously Senedd candidate for Rhondda. Next Gen Tory. Conservative YIMBY

[Liam Halligan @LiamHalligan]

Labour risks being forced to seek emergency help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as Britain lurches toward a debt crisis, leading economists are now warning.

Former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff says, in a new interview, that there is “more than 50:50 chance” of a major UK debt crisis before the end of this decade.

He is joined by Sir Charlie Bean, a former senior official at both the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility, who says the need for an IMF bail-out is now a “material risk” for the British economy.

I not only firmly agree with Ken Rogoff and Sir Charlie Bean – but have been repeatedly issuing the very same warnings for a very long time.

Because the grave risk of a major fiscal meltdown has been apparent for at least the last two years – to anyone who combines serious knowledge of UK economics and politics and global debt markets with an open mind.

The UK's public finances were already fragile when Labour took office back in July 2024.

But this government's misguided, ideologically-driven statist policies have made a bad situation much worse, seriously increasing the danger of a deep fiscal crisis - which would cause a disastrous state funding shortfall and a very nasty inflation spike.

That would result in Downing Street being forced to follow the orders of unelected technocrats flown in from Washington and elsewhere.

It would be a very major national humiliation combined with a deep economic slump and an even more intense cost-of-living crisis – in which low-income households, as ever, would suffer the most.

Yet those of us that have shown the brains and courage to point out these inconvenient truths over recent months and years have long been dismissed and derided for our trouble - not only by ignorant politicians and approval-seeking journalists but also the overwhelming majority of "leading economists".

Ahead of the general election in mid-2024, with Labour on course to win, the conventional wisdom among the great sages of broadsheet journalism and the economics establishment was that "the adults would soon be back in charge" ... Labour would "get lucky with the economy" ... and "Britain would now enjoy an extended period of political and fiscal stability".

I thought that was total nonsense – not least as I was well aware Labour's plans irresponsibly to increase borrowing and spending would be met with deep scepticism by the global pensions funds, insurance companies and other institutional investors that lend governments serious money.

My weekly @Telegraph "Economic Agenda" column of 23rd June 2024, a fortnight ahead of the general election, was a total outlier. I recounted the disaster of 1976 – when Britain was forced to go "cap in hand" to the IMF for a bailout – and warned that "The Ghosts of the 1970s" would haunt Labour's (so-called) economic resurrection".

Six months later, after the October 2024 "Hallowen" budget in which Chancellor Rachel Reeves did indeed sharply hike borrowing and spending, I assessed the market reaction then doubled-down – warning more assertively in my column of 12th January 2025 that "The UK risks a return to 1976 unless Reeves changes course".

And then again on 20th July 2025, as Labour's policies raised the costs of doing business, translating into price pressures which pushed up government borrowing costs even more, I again cautioned that "Inflation risks are taking Britain to the debt-crisis cliff edge".

"It’s now screamingly obvious that Labour’s crude Keynesianism – “pump priming” the economy by upping state borrowing and spending – isn’t working," I wrote in that column last July.

"Worse than that, this Government’s actions are pushing Britain towards a budgetary crisis every bit as serious as that in 1976 – when the UK was forced to go “cap in hand” to the IMF for a bail-out".

It's been a lonely task issuing these warnings. I've been hounded in public debates, slagged off by senior civil servants and often dismissed by "leading economists" as "alarmist".

So what do these same "leading economists" now say to Rogoff (Harvard Professor, Former IMF Chief Economist) and Bean (LSE Professor and Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of England)?

The "economics establishment" – with very few honourable exceptions, the brilliant @jagjit_chadha among them – has been and remains extremely reluctant to point out the deeply unsustainable nature of this government's addiction to ever more borrowing.

The systemic fiscal dangers of evermore "tax and spend" – and the prospect of a serious spike in gilt yields and related fiscal meltdown – are now so real and present as to be completely undeniable.

Yet the UK government is about to shift even further to the left, pushing up borrowing and spending even more under a new leader, in a bid to appease the massed ranks of economic illiterates among Labour's Parliamentary party and activist base – making those dangers even more acute.

Yet, still, the silence among "public intellectual" economists is deafening.

I'm glad the likes of Ken Rogoff and Charlie Bean are now issuing clear warnings. So where is the rest of the "economics establishment" - those who purport to understand fiscal management and financial markets, and often funded by taxpayers' money?

Britain is now clearly in the crosshairs of a very serious danger. The government's creditors are increasingly fickle and based overseas – with no regulatory or cultural obligations to lend money to the UK government.

Those holding UK gilts are increasingly "speculative" rather than "strategic" long-term investors – looking for quick returns, financing their government bond purchases with "leverage" (money borrowed from elsewhere), which will quickly be withdrawn when senitment decisively shifts, causing a plunge in gilt prices and a sharp additional surge in government borrowing costs, setting up a vicious circle.

The UK government is very heavily indebted – and the global investors we rely on to bankroll a huge slice of our state spending are alarmed that of the £132bn the government borrowed last year, no less than £110bn was spent on debt interest – as I wrote in a column on 17th May 2026, "As Labour lurches further left, the markets are calling time".

Global investors are alarmed the UK has consistently had the highest inflation in the G7 (which pushes up borrowing costs) and has easily the highest share of index-linked debt (which magnifies the burden of inflation on the state's balance sheet).

And they are deeply, deeply alarmed that when Labour came to power in mid-2024, the Office for Budget Responsibility was forecasting additional state borrowing of £323bn by 2029, the scheduled end of this Parliament.

But Labour’s runaway spending and growth-crushing tax rises mean that the same five-year borrowing forecast is now £583bn – 80pc higher. And still, the trade unions, MPs and Labour activists who will choose Starmer’s successor now want even more.

It is not too late to pull the UK back from the fiscal brink, to avoid the extremely painful and deep, lingering damage of being forced to go to the IMF and perhaps other multi-lateral creditors for a bailout.

It is not too late to avoid the inflation surge, the currency crash, the shocking blow to consumer and business confidence alongside the sky-high interest rates that will seriously whack our economy – or the perhaps even deeper damage of yet more of the British electorate losing faith in the ability of our establishment to manage the country in a manner that avoids imposing serious hardship on so many hard-working people simply trying to make their way.

But our political and media class needs to start acknowledging the economic and financial truth – that the UK government is borrowing and spending too much, taxation is now so high that it's hammering growth and employment, and that trying to finally get the economy moving by "moving further left", borrowing and spending even more, will result in a fiscal collapse.

Smart, experienced, high-profile economists need to start speaking out – as Rogoff and Bean just have – raising the alarm in a bid to force the broader establishment to face reality. Before it's too late.

If you've read this far, you clearly think this analysis is worthwhile and important. So please like and share.

And for more, read my "Economic Agenda" column in The Sunday Telegraph each week – and subscribe to "When The Facts Change: Economics and Politics in a fast-moving world, with Liam Halligan"

[Kemi Badenoch @KemiBadenoch]

Today I have met Lucy, Mark and Katie, Henry Nowak’s mother, father and stepmother. Their courage is extraordinary.

They have endured the most appalling loss, it is a life sentence for them.

They have also faced the agonising decision to release the harrowing body-worn camera footage, knowing how painful it would be and how strongly people would react. They did so because they want truth, accountability and change.

They have asked that we work across political parties and religions to rebuild trust in the police. That trust has been broken because of what happened, and I agree with them on that.

We must also be prepared to examine, carefully and seriously, religious practices or exemptions that permit the carrying of dangerous weapons in public, and other activities that are not conducive to the public good. We also need to examine where the law needs to change.

Henry’s family do not want anger to tear communities apart. They are a family who have friends across faith and race, and so did Henry. His family want his memory to help bring our society together.

Everyone knows I have strong views about how we should deal with equality under the law. What the family agreed with me on is that we need to bring common sense back, and that is what we should all be fighting for.

I promised the family that we will work to ensure there is a positive legacy for Henry out of this tragedy.

That is my focus now.

[Rt. Hon Ben Wallace @BenWallace70]

Here’s what you could have done: In the Strategic Policing Requirement which you not only published as Home Secretary but wrote the forward to, you could have mandated measures to prevent two tier policing, you could also have convened the police Chiefs Council and challenged factors that might lead to two tier policing. In your regular meeting with the Inspector of Constabularies, who Police forces and PCC’s absolutely listen too, you could have made it part of the inspection criteria..or link some police grants to reform. But you didn’t….maybe it was all a bit challenging for
you in between resigning and being fired. @LBC @Conservatives

[Joe Reeve - 🇬🇧/acc @isnit0]

This is true pro-activism. @paulpowlesland is a real British hero.

Actually improving nature despite legal threats and insane Government bodies.

Really puts the environmental virtue-signallers to shame.

Great piece from @Channel4News

[Peston @itvpeston]

“He’s a chameleon and an opportunist”

Conservative MP @BenObeseJecty doesn’t ‘recognise’ his former boss and says ‘he will say whatever it takes to try and get ahead’

#Peston

[Conservatives @Conservatives]

Important video from @KemiBadenoch ⬇️

[Damian Counsell @DamCou]

This, from Kemi Badenoch, gives me hope that, at the next General Election, I'll be able to vote for a political party that treats me, a non-white immigrant, not as a member of a "community", but as a British citizen.

[Sophie Corcoran @sophielouisecc]

Her full quote was

I don’t want to hear about Black Lives Matter.
I don’t want to hear about White Lives Matter.
Everyone matters.
Henry Nowak matters.

Which is entirely right. Everyone matters. She cares about all lives.

How can you criticise that? Looks like reform are rattled by kemi

[Luke Robert Black 🌳 @lukerobertblack]

At this point they are actively doctoring quotes to racebait.

It frankly abhorrent. They are lying.

For those who have left my party to join them - do you stand by this? Is this what you believe in now?

[Steven Edginton @StevenEdginton]

Henry Nowak was unresponsive, presumably dead, as police read him his rights after false allegations of racism from his murderer.

They cuffed him, and dragged him, as he drowned in his own blood, desperately telling them he had been stabbed and couldn’t breathe.

This is 1000x worse than George Floyd.

[Jonny Cooper @JRCooper26]

James Milner retiring means 2026-27 will be the first English top-flight season since 1956-57 that will not feature a single player who played under Sir Bobby Robson.

[Claire Coutinho @ClaireCoutinho]

We must fight ethnonationalism and its causes with equal vigour.

Those who deny an English ethnic identity or sneer at white people are simply stirring up resentment.

If we curb sectarianism and encourage assimilation and pride in nation we’ll be a happier, stronger nation.

[Old Gassy @OldGassy1984]

Nicola Sturgeon finds herself struggling to log in to a website...

[Alistair MacRae @alimacno]

I’ll just post this again as a reminder of what Sturgeon said about the SNP finances.

[Rt. Hon Ben Wallace @BenWallace70]

@afneil Mr Bell literally said on the radio today that the loss of young people’s job prospect was a price worth paying for NHS waiting lists.

[Katie Lam @Katie_Lam_MP]

For every single young British person hired since 2020, 27 non-EU migrants got a job.

Nearly half of homes built since 2024 have been wiped out by demand from migration.

Mass migration is making life almost impossible for those who want to work hard and build a life.

[Tom Parkhill @tomparkhill]

This thread is worth a read.

[Liam Halligan @LiamHalligan]

UK inflation was down in April, but will soon surge to 5pc and beyond – which will have seismic economic and political consequences

The consumer price index (CPI) grew 2.8pc during the year to last month, down from 3.3pc in March.

“We have the right economic plan,” opined Rachel Reeves, as the figures were released last week. “To change course now would risk our economic stability”. If only that were true.

Last month’s headline inflation drop was a blip, driven by one-off price adjustments detached from economic realities. Those factors will soon be reversed.

Growing price pressures will drive CPI inflation up over the coming months, in my view above 5pc. And if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed beyond the summer, blocking exports of oil, gas and fertiliser feedstocks from the Middle East, inflation could go much higher still.

My latest "Economic Agenda" column in @Telegraph

🧵1/6

https://t.co/c2VSE9VgUk

[James Cleverly🇬🇧 @JamesCleverly]

When he resigned he said it was because he was being prevented from making the changes needed to bring down immigration.

He is now claiming that he made the changes that brought down immigration.

Both can’t be true.

[Andrew Neil @afneil]

IN plain English: we’re going to send a ton of money to the warmongering Kremlin regime for fuel while refusing further exploitation of our own oil and gas in the North Sea. Brilliant.

[LBC @LBC]

'They're trying to seek some kind of relief on the back of poor Ukrainians being bombed nightly and daily by Putin.'

Sir Mel Stride tells @NickFerrariLBC that Labour's plans to loosen sanctions on Russian oil might help Brits, but at what cost?