Tony Moneyball

Analytics professional and AFL/NFL capper.

AFL 2026: 18-16 @ 52.9% (+18.96u)
NFL 2026: 3-3 @ 50% (+0.79u)

[Tony Moneyball @TonyMoneyball]

NFL Week 7: Texans −10.5 vs Giants

One play this week. Here's the case.

1️⃣ C.J. Stroud is in recent form. His last three games: +15.2, +10.5 and +13.9 EPA passing (EPA is expected points added, the cleanest single measure of whether a QB's plays actually move the scoreboard). He's completed passes well above expectation in all three, at +15, +10 and +11.5 CPOE.

Through his first three games he was a combined −8. The quarterback Houston started the season with is not the one playing now.

2️⃣ Houston's 2–4 record is misleading.

Their four losses: by 5 to Buffalo, by 14 to Cincinnati, by 2 at Indianapolis, by 4 to Dallas. Three of the four were one-score games. For the season they've outscored opponents 144–143.

They've won the last two, 26–3 at Tennessee and 34–31 at Jacksonville, and both were on the road.

3️⃣ The Giants' 3–2–1 is misleading the other way.

They've been outscored 140–136 for the season. They lost 27–34 at home to the Saints last week.

And J.J. McCarthy gets the start. He's the third different quarterback to run the Giants' offence this season, after Jaxson Dart in Week 1 and Jameis Winston since. McCarthy was fine in relief last week. But across 10 games in Minnesota last season he posted negative passing EPA in seven of them.

The model ran the numbers with Winston and again with McCarthy. Houston came out ahead both times, and slightly further ahead with McCarthy.

4️⃣ The matchup. The Giants go into this with a beaten-up back seven. Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and corner Greg Newsome II are out. Corner Paulson Adebo and safeties Jevon Holland and Tyler Nubin are all questionable after limited practice weeks. That's a lot of uncertainty to take into a game against a quarterback playing like Stroud.

Houston isn't clean either. RB David Montgomery, safeties Reed Blankenship and Jalen Pitre, and tackle Blake Fisher are all out. We're betting on the passing game in this one.

1 unit, flat 1% of bankroll, the same as every NFL bet this season. Got this on Betfair @ $2.04

[Tony Moneyball @TonyMoneyball]

Kansas City -7.5 is a winner, back on level pegging to start the NFL season.

3-3

[Tony Moneyball @TonyMoneyball]

Week 6 NFL play:

Kansas City -7.5

LAC have quite a few injuries but there was already a model edge.

Got this on Betfair at $2.08

[Tony Moneyball @TonyMoneyball]

Why does Macarthur FC exist?

[Tony Moneyball @TonyMoneyball]

Harrison Mevis’ Wikipedia says he is nicknamed “the Thiccer Kicker”

[Tony Moneyball @TonyMoneyball]

Adding another NFL play for Week 5. Jackson is confirmed out for Baltimore.

Atlanta -3.5

Got this one on Betfair $2.08

[Tony Moneyball @TonyMoneyball]

First NFL bet for Week 5 is:

Washington -4

Got this $2.02 on Betfair

I may have another bet, just waiting for final injury reports.

[Tony Moneyball @TonyMoneyball]

@DonsPierpoint Will never forgive Ryan Griffen for walking out on our club as captain, but it meant we went after Tom Boyd and won a flag.

Light at the end of the tunnel.

[Tony Moneyball @TonyMoneyball]

🏈 NFL Week 4

Las Vegas +4.5 - 52%

1 unit each. NFL is flat staked: same size every bet, 1% of bank.

[Tony Moneyball @TonyMoneyball]

Given they aren’t going to get more spectrum would we ever expect any of the major FTA networks to give us one linear 4k feed and remove all their other rubbish channels? Doubt it, even if we do end up with DVB-T2.

I’m not sure on the technical details here but I doubt they could say run a 4K feed, 1080i and then multiple other 576i feeds right?

In saying that 7 could totally allow for 4K streaming via their app, but given they are a commercial TV network and most of their audience would be watching on FTA, they don’t have the same incentive to offer that like Kayo have.

[Tony Moneyball @TonyMoneyball]

@flag_crows @SamFaff They need their multi channels to survive commercially I’d assume than carry a single 4K channel. So spectrum is definitely an issue. All the big FTA networks would rather have like 5 channels where they can play cheap content full of ads I assume.

[Tony Moneyball @TonyMoneyball]

Anyone else get emotional after an AFL GF? Another season done, another year gone. Weird how a cultural event like a grand final becomes this weird emotional marker of time passing.

Surely other people also have this post-season grief / existential response as well?

[Tony Moneyball @TonyMoneyball]

@Bsme11743 Sorry, already offloaded them! Best of luck with your search

[Tony Moneyball @TonyMoneyball]

For any Brisbane or Fremantle fans wanting to get to the game I still have 2 x AFL Grand Final tickets available. Both are level 1, adult seats. DM me.

[Tony Moneyball @TonyMoneyball]

I have 2 x AFL GF tickets available. DM me if interested

[Tony Moneyball @TonyMoneyball]

@Chadanomics Model number, not a matchup read. Checked the attributions - no dominant factor, biggest is TB's recent passing volume (~0.3pts).

WAS is the stronger one.

[Tony Moneyball @TonyMoneyball]

🏈 NFL Week 3

Tampa Bay +1.5 - 52.5%
Washington +7.5 - 53.3%

1 unit each. NFL is flat staked: same size every bet, 1% of bank.

[Tony Moneyball @TonyMoneyball]

@DonsPierpoint They will find any way to ruin the game.