Track Edge

Professional Horse Racing Analysis Finding value the market misses.
Precision • Passion • Performance

[Track Edge @TrackEdgeRacing]

Considering AG, Sheza Alibi almost certainly aren’t going & Aeliana will be targeting a Caulfield or Melbourne Cup.

Has to be Sir Delius or Calandagan if he comes out.

[Racing.com @Racing]

Is it too early to ask… who wins the Cox Plate? 👇

[Daniel O'Sullivan @TRBHorseRacing]

🏇 WFA Performance Ratings ⏱️⚖️📊 - Top 5 winners from Day 2 of The Championships at Randwick:

💪 Sir Delius - 107.8
Produced a monster performance in a brutally run 2000m where Light Infantry Man went +22.9 lengths above standard to the 800m, placing it at the upper end of Pride Of Jenni’s early pace range. Over the past two and a half years, across her 24 starts when leading, that +22.9 would rank fourth, just 1.6 lengths off her second fastest. Light Infantry Man was also 1 length quicker to the 800m than Pride Of Jenni in the 2024 edition of this race when she led by over 30 lengths and won by 6.5 lengths, highlighting how much others misjudged that tempo, although that sits in the past. Sir Delius absorbed that extreme pressure tracking around 3 lengths off the lead, and while all runners were below standard over the final 600m, he still rated just 1 length below standard for the final 200m, the best in the race, to produce his 107.8. That improved on his previous 106 peak in the G1 Turnbull Stakes last spring, which was run at a moderate early tempo before increasing sharply in the final 800m. There is no doubt he would relish stepping to 2400m, a trip he has yet to attempt in Australia, with the stamina he showed here the key to handling such extreme pressure at 2000m. With no G1 WFA option beyond 2040m here in the spring, I’d like to see him tackle the Hong Kong Vase over 2400m on the International Race Day in December, which is not typically a high-rating race on the global scale. A 107.8 would have comfortably won the past five editions.

⚡️ Tempted - 103.5
She has run right up to her best ratings of 104 and 103.6 to win the Group 2 Arrowfield Stakes. The race was run moderately through the first 400m for this class, built from the 800m to the 600m, and then was fast over the final 600m. While she didn’t blow them away, the strength of the race speed over the final 600m and the fact she came from 2.5 lengths off the lead to score by a clear 1.2 lengths highlights plenty of substance in the performance. Last week, Joliestar ran 103.7 to win the G1 WFA TJ Smith Stakes, which helps show how competitively Tempted sits against the current crop of top sprinters. While this era of sprinters is around 1.5 to 2.5 lengths below our historically elite standards, she can only compete against what is in front of her and is clearly right in that mix. Still a three-year-old with proven consistency above 103, there's nothing to say she can't find higher new peaks in the future.

💎 Idle Flyer - 102
Appreciated a strong speed set by Pride Of Jenni (+10.4 lengths above standard to the 800m and +12.7 lengths to the 600m) and elevated to a strong new peak of 102 to win the Group 1 Queen Of The Turf Stakes. That improves on her previous 100.5 peak by almost a length from her dominant G3 Angst Stakes win last spring, also over the Randwick Mile. Her 102 sits just a shade above the 101.8 ten-year average for the race.

🎯 Ohope Wins - 100
Won a high-pressure ATC Oaks run at a very fast speed (+17.6 lengths vs standard to the 800m), making it a genuine 2400m staying test. The four runners within 3 lengths of the lead at the 800m were beaten more than 15 lengths. Ohope Wins settled 10.5 lengths back at that point and could not have been better suited by the speed, with the energy she conserved compared to Profoundly, who was almost five lengths closer, telling over the final 100m. Her 100 rating is a clear improvement on her 96.5 NZ Oaks win, which came from a similar position well back in the field but under a far less favourable race shape. That performance did not show the full extent of her ability, whereas this race provided the ideal scenario to do so. She has shown plenty of stamina here, and doing so at the end of a long eight-run first preparation that began in November 2025 is a testament to her constitution, which should serve her well going forward. While her 100 rating sits below the best winners of the past decade, such as Bonneval (104.5) and Verry Elleegant (104), it compares well with more recent winners Treasurethe Moment (98), Autumn Angel (99) and Pennyweka (98.5).

🙌 Changingoftheguard - 99.5
Matched his previous best in Australia, winning the Group 1 Sydney Cup in a race that was run below average early and became more about a fast final 800m than a tough two-mile test. That lack of early speed suited those closer to the front, and with Changingoftheguard running +11.8 lengths above average for his final 800m, it highlights how difficult the race was for those chasing. He was superbly rated by Jason Collett in front and capitalised with a good quality final 800m without being brilliant, and combined with his favourable position on the lead, everything fell into place. With 55.5kg, his 99.5 rating converts to 102.7 at the weights, which is historically weak against a 107 ten-year average for the race at the weights carried and a 101.8 winner average normalised to weight-for-age.

[Track Edge @TrackEdgeRacing]

Race 6 Sandown Analysis #racing #sandown

[Track Edge @TrackEdgeRacing]

Sandown R6 Rated Prices (100% Market)

Tres Magnifique $1.8
Magnabelle Royale $5.5
Espana $13
Wiltshire Square $21
Tournelle $22
In Haste $35
Remlaps Angel $56
Nightime Star $69
$100 or better the rest

Analysis to follow

[Track Edge @TrackEdgeRacing]

That hurts #TycoonStar 🤧

[Track Edge @TrackEdgeRacing]

@_Boondie_ Very harsh.

He’s right in the mix for the VIC jockey premiership.

[Track Edge @TrackEdgeRacing]

🚨 R2 Caulfield 🚨

Like Epimeles ($5) resuming off his impressive trials albeit the long break we have no idea where his ceiling is. Jamie Mott goes on & he can win fresh here.

Also think Shaime is over the odds ($13) after his last start win defeating the fav King Tut ($4).

[Australian Turf Club @aus_turf_club]

Your 2026 Queen Elizabeth Stakes final field 🏆

@tabcomau @racing_nsw @SkyRacingAU @7horseracing

[Track Edge @TrackEdgeRacing]

🚨Cranbourne R7🚨
#5 Hotspur Reale $2.60 Bet365

Looks very well placed here with Logan Bates going on board. Bumped into a smart one last start (Oliveanotherday) & wasn’t disgraced. Meets a weaker field here & with the superior ratings he should be taking care of these.

[Track Edge @TrackEdgeRacing]

Talk about money munchers 😂#OysterLane

[Track Edge @TrackEdgeRacing]

Will they head to a Cox Plate with Pride of Jenni this year?

Imagine Autumn Glow, Calandagan & Pride of Jenni in the same field.
🤯🤯

#racing #coxplate #prideofjenni

[Trav Noonan @TravTurf]

Some of the names expected in Saturday's T.J. Smith Stakes include 🐎

Overpass
Jimmysstar
Giga Kick
Briasa
Angel Capital
Joliestar
Magic Time
Tentyris

Not expecting a big field for the premier sprint of The Championships. @RSN927 @TheRacingShow

[Track Edge @TrackEdgeRacing]

🚨All Ascot betting markets suspended for tomorrow
Anything to do with the cyclone?

#cyclonenarelle #ascot #racing

[Track Edge @TrackEdgeRacing]

🚨Flemington R4🚨
#14 Moor Mumm $14/$3.6 Ladbrokes

Huge run fresh for the new stable. That run rated well & gets in very well at the weights with 52kg after the claim. Has won down the straight at big odds before. Tough race but looks a good each way price.

#racing #flemington

[Chris Waller Racing @cwallerracing]

** Autumn Glow **

[Track Edge @TrackEdgeRacing]

Weighted Certainty #treasurethemoment

[Track Edge @TrackEdgeRacing]

Not a great weekend on the punt for us (much like everyone else). On a positive note. Our Free Tip shared in our Discord won again! We are now 5/5 with our free tips & 26.35 Units in profit ($1,317.50 for a $50 per unit punter).

We’ll be back 👊

[Track Edge @TrackEdgeRacing]

Caulfield R8- G1 William Reid Stakes (1200m) Race Preview Below:

SELECTIONS:
1ST: 1- Jimmysstar
2ND: 5- Baraqiel
3RD: 2- Jigsaw
4TH: 4- Angel Capital
#racing #racepreviews #jimmysstar

[7HorseRacing 🐎 @7horseracing]

Strap yourselves in 🍿

[Track Edge @TrackEdgeRacing]

Treasure Barrier 1 🥰🥰

[Track Edge @TrackEdgeRacing]

Group 2 Sunline Stakes - Caulfield
Treasurethe Moment $1.80 Ladbrokes

If she’s anywhere near her best, with a good run in transit. How will she be beaten at the Weight For Age scale?

Hard to see her being beaten here.

#racing #treasurethemoment #caulfield