What a real structural shift looks like. Not a pump through one MA on one candle. Daily closes above SMA20 on three+ consecutive days. Then using it as support on the retest. Then the EMA50. The process takes weeks. 2023 recovery: 6 weeks to clear the first two MAs. Another 8 to clear SMA200. Patience isn't a personality trait in bear markets. It's a structural requirement. — @TraderKAEe
There are 5 moving averages above BTC right now.
Not 1. Not 2. Five.
Here's what each one means — and why it takes more than one green candle to clear them. 🧵👇
Why this matters for your trade. Each MA is a cluster of trapped buyers. People who bought near those levels will sell to exit when price returns. Real, repeatable, predictable pressure. BTC needs to absorb five waves of that before it's structurally clean.
Sat on my hands all morning.
BTC: trigger not fired.
ETH: extended on H4. Hard pass.
Alts: Risk-OFF daily. Nothing clean.
No trades. No regrets.
Distribution candle says $62,500
before anything offers a clean entry.
I'll wait for the level.
Cash is a position.
For the thesis to flip bullish:
Daily MACD above zero.
Daily close above $65,627 on vol > 0.7.
Weekly close above $73,241.
Any one of these changes my lean.
Until then: bounces are sold, not chased.
RSI 38.85. Vol 65% below avg.
The bounce is real.
Bull case isn't.
The distribution candle is just the market talking. Today it said: sellers were at $65,667 before buyers arrived. That's not a buy signal. That's a data point. Sit with it before you trade. Bookmark for the next "should I buy the dip" moment. There will be one. — @TraderKAEe
So what do you actually do today. You don't short here. You don't buy the dip. You wait. BTC back to $65,500 and fails H4 close → short ($65,500 / SL $67,600 / TP $62,500). London sweeps $64,500 lows, reclaims $65,000 �� bull case ($66,500 next). Two scenarios. Two defined entries. Both require patience.
What I'm watching tonight.
Asia range: $63,800–$65,200.
Pivot: $64,500.
London opens below $64,500, can't reclaim:
→ trend day lower. $62,500 next.
London sweeps lows, reclaims $65,000:
→ bull case alive. $66,500–$68,000.
$64,500 is the only number until morning.