$BTC
Here is a 10m video on how I plan to capture the next big move on btc.
0:21 - Aggr Delta
1:23 - Market Structure
3:04 - Daily TPO breakdown
4:48 - Weekly TPO breakdown
5:54 - Secondary Confluences
7:38 - Understanding Variance
bitcoin:native
Covered exactly how I was going to capture this move in my previous snippet video.
Three drives pattern was nicely anticipated.
Big question now is will the Daily 12/25 EMA's continue to hold as support or is price able to get acceptance below.
If you re-watch the snippet, you will see how I was positioned 1/2 size previously with a wider invalidation to cater for the variance.
Want to see 77.2k act as local resistance. If we accept back above, then it opens to door to another push up.
$BTC
First time we are starting to see a shift in LTF market structure if we can close a candle body below the swing low.
Main thing I am looking for at the moment is initiation away from the LTF range followed by a lower high / underside retest to further add to my position.
FOMC on Wednesday so hopping we get some nice volatility to play with.
$BTC
Poor highs taken out on Weekly TPO as price also trades into the single prints (79.4k-80.5k)
76k will be a key pivot for me when observing if we simply retest the level of accept back below it.
Currently forming a nice 4H consolidation, if we get a strong impulse to the downside away from that consolidation then It's formed a supply zone which I would like to see caping price.
Getting back above the February monthly open, opens the doors to another push into the Single print where I will again be observing whether or not buyers are getting absorbed by passive sellers.
I don't full exposure on any positions and still believe that I need to see more PA develop before adding more to my positions.
$BTC
Price took out the range high which a large sweep than the one from Tuesday.
Here are the facts:
1. Price is Rangebound
2. We swept the range high
3. HTF trend remains to the downside
4. Large Daily Supply zone overhead
5. Daily Stochastic oscillating at the highs
If price does breakout and we have big squeeze, then so be it, but the day I stop treating a range as a range will be when I'm dead.
Only two scenarios I am interested in trading:
1) Acceptance back below 74k (Deviation) which opens the doors to a rotation back into the mid-range (66k).
2) Price pushes up into the Daily supply zone, spends a few days above the range high followed by a deviation back below 76k (Similar to the previous distribution deviations).
Given the context, I am not interested in trading a breakout.
$BTC
When trading mouse traps, it's very uncommon to see price sweep the level a third time which is what happened overnight.
I am still positioned short from the mouse trap, the sooner we accept below 72k the better as the longer it takes to breakdown, the lower the probabilities of the trade working out.
On aggr (Pic 3) we had another larger number of buyers getting absorbed. While it does support the short thesis, if price fails to breakdown, then that's a sign that price wants to see new value as those buyers are being rewarded.
If buyers continue to get rewarded, then I expect price to trade into the 76-78k / Daily Supply zone. That will be the line in the sand for me in terms of price respecting the HTF Downtrend.
Will be open to playing the long into the level if market provides me with an execution trigger.
$BTC
I got trailed out on the reminder of my short last night as we accepted back above the Daily bands (Mistakes were made but we journal -> Reflect -> Move on)
We then proceeded to trade back into the 72k region where we had a lot of Absorption, Spike in R-Vol and liquidations as seen on the Aggr chart.
Setup is the same as the previous short I took, only difference is on this one we have a nice "Mouse Trap"
Daily Stochastic also oscillating into the highs as price trades into the range high (Just made a post on this today).
FTA is 69k which has been a key pivot over the last month, extended target is the mid-range.
Trade thesis is invalidated above 73k which opens the doors to 76-78k.
How I trade ranges w/ Stochastic RSI:
P.S. My execution is based on order flow and not the stochastic, the stochastic is simply a secondary form of confluence.
$BTC
Still holding my short exposure from 71.5k as long as price hold below the daily 12/25 EMAs.
These are the only setups on my radar: 👇
#1: (62.5K)
Looking for an SFP of the internal low (Sellers getting absorbed) + reclaim.
Loose opinion is that if we are eventually going to trade back into the range highs (76-78k) then it makes more sense to front run the range low (60k) to then come back and take it out.
#2: (60K)
This is a higher probability setup in my playbook as we are trading off an external low as opposed to an internal low.
Execution for the SFP setup is the same as setup #1, I want to see aggressive selling below the swing low followed by initiation from buyers back above it.
#3: (76-78K)
This is my only high conviction short setup; we have a daily supply zone just above the range high which is where I will be looking to trade.
Can either be an SFP or a deviation