20 yrs of expensive trading lessons — finally profitable the last 3. Live portfolio, strict 75bps risk, stop on every trade. Follow for daily trades. Not FA.
Updated my live trading dashboards to new URLs.
Be sure to bookmark to follow my trading journey to financial freedom.
📊 Open positions → https://t.co/JF9gxUpKno
👀 Watchlist → https://t.co/0yaLC5dwKP
Cannabis ETF $MSOS is breaking out with strong direction movement with DI+ > DI-
Buying long $MSOS risking 75bps of trading capital with stop at $4.95. Results in a position size of 4.3%.
Monthly Recap for May
May MTD Performance: -4.58%
YTD Performance: +14.30%
May was a rough month for the trend following strategy. First down month of the year.
I went into the month long Oil $USO, Commodities $BCI, Oil Equities $XLE and $OIH which were all stopped out during the month. Also went long and was quickly stopped out of Silver $SLV, Silver Miners $SIL, and Copper Miners $COPX.
The market trend reflected a regime change this month and I am now long new ETFs of:
Trade Update:
Sold all Copper Miners $COPX (reducing portoflio risk as already hold $CPER)
Sold half South Korea $EWY (beta to $SPY > 3)
New buys:
Internet $FDN, 9.6% position with stop at $259.90
Broker Dealers $IAI, 10.8% position with stop at $171.86
US Dollar $UUP, 15% position with stop at $26.95
Solar $TAN, 3.6% position with stop at $58.49
I have now built out at correlation analysis tab on my Open Positions site to view risk/beta vs $SPY, $UUP, $TLT, $USO
I also added a SIGNAL QUEUE on my Watchlist to analyze Buy Trigger candidates to my current portfolio and calculate portfolio risk pro-forma
LFG
Improvise. Adapt. Overcome.
After recent drawdown, I went back with Claude Code to analyze my portfolio risk at the time. I was overly concentrated to the same bet through recent additions of $SLV, $SIL, $CPER, $COPX, $PPLT ... portfolio risk was heavily tilted to short USD exposure ...
@prrobbins Having an initial stop before entering trade and sizing position rising same % of capital to the initial stop
Same way the Turtle Traders 🐢 did it
Focus on DEFENSE. Don't Give It Back! At least don't give back anymore than I already have in terms of performance.
I did add 1 long yesterday in $AMLP based on a breakout. I will not be adding any additional positions or risk to the portfolio until performance stabilizes.
TREND FOLLOWING WIPEOUT 🏄♀️
Post Mortem of Recent Recent Performance
I was at my all time highs on 5/13 (7 days ago) up 20% YTD. I was doing a lot of High Fiving and raising my stops, however, I was not selling...
Like the great macro trader @tgmacro says, High Five with one hand and sell some with the other. I did not do enough of that...
My current draw down from all time highs is -6.58%. I'm up +13% YTD.
Yesterday I was stopped out of $PPLT, $SLV, $SIL, and I unwound my $GLD before stop was hit, as price action does not look healthy.
Where to I go from here? ...
Selling all $XME, stop of $113 triggered.
I entered the trade on 4/14, risking 75bps of trading capital. Since opening the trade I have increased the stop a bit, so total loss on the trade is 25bps.
Goal is to keep the loss on the losers less than the gains on the winners.
Defense first.
Selling all of position $REMX
Stop hit. Defense first.
Ended up with a small gain of $450 on this trade. Nothing to write home about, but did not let a winning trade turn into a losing trade.
Entered trade on 4/10/26, sold 25% position higher and let the rest run until stop was hit today.
I size all my positions by risking 0.75% of trading capital/AUM to my initial stop. You can find a Trade Calculator on my free watch list site that will do this math for you when you enter required fields.
Entering new position in $OIH
50 day high breakout triggered
Stop placed below 50 day moving at $412
Position size based on risk of hitting the stop equates to a 8.67% position when risking 0.75% of trading capital/AUM