@dannycheng2022 "Buying the bottom is pointless if your allocation is too small"
I get what you are saying, though if someone has $100k portfolio and they put $1k (1%) or $2k (2%) into a stock and it 10X
that becomes 10-20% of what their portfolio was
Healthcare is not the endgame. It's just Phase 1.
This is the rotation playbook for the next 18 months.
Most of you are looking at healthcare right now and wondering if it's too late.
It's not. Healthcare has been the most consistent sector in midterm election years for 30+ years. 80% win rate in the back half. That's the most reliable sector pattern in modern market history.
Here's what you need to know:
- 22 healthcare companies beat the S&P 500 in 75%+ of midterm years from 1994 to 2022.
- Zero of them underperformed.
But the real money isn't just in healthcare. It's in knowing WHEN to leave healthcare and where to go next.
The mistake most traders make is they ride healthcare all the way through 2027 and miss the bigger move.
- Year 3 of the presidential cycle is the strongest year in the entire 4-year cycle. Average return since 1933: +17.2%. Positive 90% of the time.
And it's NOT healthcare that leads Year 3. The leaders flip completely.
2026-2027 playbook:
Phase 1, July to November 2026: Heavy in healthcare. Add defense. Staples, utilities.
Phase 2, November to February 2027: Start trimming healthcare. Build tech and financials slowly.
Phase 3, February through end of 2027: Full risk on. Tech, financials, consumer discretionary lead the move.
Average gain from midterm year low to Year 3 high: +46.9%.
Healthcare names I'm watching: $LLY $UNH $ABBV $MRK $AMGN $TMO $DHR $SYK $DXCM $IDXX $HCA $PODD
ETFs to look at: $XBI $LABU $ARKG $GNOM
This is your roadmap.
Bessent and Warsh are making statements and behaving exactly in line with the game plan I expected. As you know, since 2023 I have been saying that we may see a dot-com like bubble. In fact, an even much bigger one. Right now, the market is difficult because the Fed is not at the table, I know. But when the Fed comes back to the table, that is when we will have a broad breadth rally. The real rally will happen then. Be careful, when that time comes, many people will think they actually know something. But the reason will be the broad breadth rally. More importantly, the real challenge will be being able to get out near the top of the multiyear bubble that will form. I hope that while we are exiting near the top, like the 2025 tariff and MSTR examples, others will still be saying buy the dip
Time it took to achieve 10x on each of these positions:
$AAPL - 10 years
$RGTI - 2 months (insane)
$QBTS - 2 months (insane)
$DFTX - 3 years
$GEV - 8 years (assigned from $GE breakup)
$PLTR - 2 years
$RKLB - 1.5 years
So much talk around diamond hands. But how many who talk actually have em? 😆💎
$BTBT trades at a 41% discount to NAV
and the only reason why is ETH
➜ BTBT holds ~27M $WYFI shares (~$1.2B worth)
➜ BTBT holds ~150K ETH as well (~$260M worth)
NAV per share is $3.78
➜ Trades at $2.23 a share
➜ Market cap is ~$778M
the market has no problem pricing WhiteFiber (WYFI)
multiple investment banks are bullish on it as a standalone AI infra play
but when it's wrapped inside a vehicle holding ETH, investors demand a discount
that's kind of a problem and is a telltale sign of what smart money actually thinks about ETH
if BTBT held cash/bonds instead of ETH would it trade at a premium? I think yes.
is ETH done or are there bullish catalysts that can revive confidence?
$BTBT trades at a 41% discount to NAV
and the only reason why is ETH
➜ BTBT holds ~27M $WYFI shares (~$1.2B worth)
➜ BTBT holds ~150K ETH as well (~$260M worth)
NAV per share is $3.78
➜ Trades at $2.23 a share
➜ Market cap is ~$778M
the market has no problem pricing WhiteFiber (WYFI)
multiple investment banks are bullish on it as a standalone AI infra play
but when it's wrapped inside a vehicle holding ETH, investors demand a discount
that's kind of a problem and is a telltale sign of what smart money actually thinks about ETH
if BTBT held cash/bonds instead of ETH would it trade at a premium? I think yes.
is ETH done or are there bullish catalysts that can revive confidence?
Coinbase sent $4.4 BILLION USDC to Hyperliquid
the largest stablecoin transfer in history
most people saw the headline and scrolled
here is what they missed:
Coinbase is now Hyperliquid's official USDC treasury deployer
that means $6 billion in USDC on Hyperliquid is now generating real yield with ~90% going to buybacks
the math:
➜ 3-4% yield = $135M–$200M/year
➜ $370k–$550k in daily $HYPE buybacks
➜ funded by interest (removes fee buyback reliance)
this is essentially what banks have been doing for 200 years, except Hyperliquid is giving it back to holders
are you still sidelined?
Gap Fill setup that every trader should know.
I posted this in real time.
Here's what I'd add from experience: gaps don't fill to the penny every time. Stop getting hung up on "it didn't fill all the way."
Textbook teaches us the pattern.
Real life experience teaches us the job.