Trasgu

[Baltic Takes @Baltic_Takes]

There’s a lot of talk about WW3, but what if we’ve been looking at this the wrong way around.

We divide history into two world wars as if peaceful coexistence is the natural state of affairs in our world the rest of the time.

In reality, humanity has had to endure centuries of warring empires.

The First World War was arguably the culmination of the age of empires. The Second World War was an attempt to drag us back to that age of empires, after Hitler and Stalin agreed their pact to divide Europe into spheres of influence.

Colonial history and world war history are usually separate chapters in our history books, or more often separate books entirely.

But if more people understood that world wars are imperial wars too, then it might also help build the global consensus needed to properly defend a rules-based order that serves all sovereign nations.

History wasn’t just interrupted by two World Wars. It was also interrupted by two attempts at World Peace, the ambitious efforts to build a rules-based world of sovereign nations as an alternative to centuries of imperial conquest.

Both needed an ambitious restart and then continuous improvement. Both helped deliver unprecedented levels of peace and prosperity.

And both of them began being built DURING world wars.

They did not spring spontaneously from the ruins afterwards.

Detailed planning for the League of Nations started within weeks of the First World War’s outbreak. The plan for a United Nations began in the very darkest hours of the Second World War.

If Twitter existed back then, pro-Nazi and pro-Soviet commentators would be ridiculing those ideals and instead arguing that the only path to peace would be British surrender next.

But the allies weren’t deterred back then and neither should you now.

And we don’t need another world war to recognise that the international system already needs another fundamental upgrade.

There is no other way all this ends regardless. If Russia’s aggression succeeds against Ukraine, this era of aggression only gets worse and lasts longer. There will be no era of peace until a better rules-based world is achieved, whether that takes weeks, years, or centuries.

So instead of obsessing too much over a hypothetical World War Three, or worse, rewarding aggression in the hope of averting it and turning it into a self-fulfilling prophecy, we should already be building World Peace Three.

The Baltic countries have already been pushing for it together, including with fundamental reforms of the Security Council and more inclusion of civic societies and smaller nations in global decision making.

That would be better for everyone, everywhere, in countries both big and small.

Here’s a bit of a deeper dive: https://t.co/EIQfh0ub7r

[Trasgu @Trasgu83]

@CasetaBosque Claro, y atacas una capital de un país en Orden de Marcha y en filita. En Grozny funcionó que te cagas.

Y lo de "Ucrania no cayó en 3 días porque rusos cometieron errores" y no por los huevos que les echaron los defensores...Este tío es la mayor máquina de propaganda del Kremlin

[marie @MarieBensimon]

A los que piden que ardan las calles me gustaría preguntarles de qué calles estamos hablando, exactamente. Mas que nada por ir concretando, que lo mismo estamos todos de acuerdo hasta que ponemos una dirección.
Porque uno dice "que arda todo" y queda super rebelde. Luego resulta que ese "todo" incluye el coche de una enfermera, la tienda de un señor que todavía está pagando el préstamo o un restaurante de una familia china que invirtio todos sus ahorros. La revolución tiene estos detallitos tontos cuando se acerca uno a mirar, porque te empiezan a salir personas por todas partes y te joden la panorámica.

El señor de la tienda, por ejemplo, qué hace ahí? Por qué no comprende que le están construyendo un mundo mejor? Lleva veinte años trabajando como un mulo, paga impuestos, tiene dos empleados y una úlcera, pero se ve que le falta conciencia social.

Ahí hay algo que a mí se me escapa. Todo esto se hace por el pueblo, pero para ser pueblo te piden más pedigrí que a un caniche de exposición. Porque al que pide que no le quemen el negocio le retiran el carnet en el acto. Alguien le ha preguntado qué quiere o sólo cuenta como pueblo mientras acepta sin rechistar que le jodan la vida?
Todo para el pueblo, pero sin el pueblo. Espera, esto me suena.

Entonces, quién es el pueblo?
El que revienta el escaparate, sí.
El que huye con los perfumes robados, también.
El dueño, viendo cómo se llevan entre risas su trabajo, no, ese es un capitalista, que se joda.
Yo le aconsejaría entrar y robarse algo, igual si es un poco ladrón lo reconocen como pueblo.

Qué estamos justificando exactamente? A veces hay que utilizar la violencia para defenderse. Pero a quién estás defendiendo cuando le quemas el coche a un desconocido. Qué peligro has evitado reventando un local? Hasta dónde puedes llegar y quién te ha dado permiso? Porque como valga con estar convencido de que eres de los buenos, estamos jodidos. Pocos cabrones he conocido que no tuvieran una explicación preciosa para lo suyo.

Imagina que la tienda es de tu hija y que, al intentar defenderla, le dan con una barra de hierro en la cabeza. Le explicas que hay que comprender esa rabia, que no se lo tome como algo personal y que están haciendo la revolución por su bien.
Es solo por saber si el contexto te sigue pareciendo tan convincente cuando la que recibe es tu hija.
O tu madre.

Y me interesa también el tío que reparte el entusiasmo, ese que lleva días calentando el ambiente y después aparece muy preocupado porque alguien se ha calentado. No se lo explica. Dijo que había que hacer arder las calles, pero como florecen los almendros, una cosa poética. Cómo iba a saber que entre tanto cenutrio habría algunos poco familiarizados con la metáfora.
Si a un idiota con la testosterona disparada le cuentas que su violencia es noble y le señalas a un enemigo, qué le estás dando? Una opinión o permiso? El que rompe paga, pero tú no eres, quizás, el responsable de todo?

Qué barata sale la revolución cuando la casa y el cuerpo los ponen otros, amigo.
Antes de pedir que arda todo, dime qué vas a poner tú, revolucionario de medio pelo, qué parte de tu vida estás dispuesto a ver hecha trizas.
Y después quédate a explicarle al de la tienda para qué ha servido arruinarle la vida, igual tiene ganas de partirte la cara. Será un buen momento para explicarle que la violencia no lleva a ninguna parte.
A ver si tienes cojones de darle esa lección delante de su negocio quemado.

[🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 @front_ukrainian]

❗️I want to thank the Spanish people from the bottom of my heart for everything you have done and continue to do for Ukraine.

Spain has been a reliable partner from the very first months of the full-scale war. You provided us with Leopard 2A4 tanks, HAWK air defence systems and Patriot missiles, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, artillery ammunition, armoured vehicles and other weapons. Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have been trained with your support.

Alongside military aid, you have given substantial economic and humanitarian assistance, helped with reconstruction — including of energy infrastructure — and have sheltered more than 230,000 Ukrainians who fled the war.

Thank you for the military, financial and human support. Thank you for the fact that Spain does not turn away and continues to stand by our side.

Glory to Ukraine! 🇺🇦❤️🇪🇸

[Christy ✨ @WillowMantis]

Amazing speech! 👏👏👏

[Tymofiy Mylovanov @Mylovanov]

Meloni: I do not miss the Russian tanks in Prague and Budapest. I do not miss the Berlin Wall.

If Ukraine stopped defending itself tomorrow, Russia would occupy a European nation and Soviet-style imperialism would return.

Surrender is not peace. It is conquest. 1/

[Tymofiy Mylovanov @Mylovanov]

Kasparov: Ukraine is under the heaviest bombardment one can imagine. On CNN you see Gaza, Gaza, Gaza.

If Israel did to Gaza for 24 hours what Putin does to Ukraine, there would be no Gaza. Russia's bombing of Ukraine is much worse than carpet bombing. 1/

[Gemma Goldie @gemagoldie]

Se fue la religión de la vida pública pero dejó un agujero de rituales que los seres humanos vamos buscando. Los minutos de silencio, los murales, las vigilias, las pregarias, las lágrimas en grupo...

Se fue la religión, y el activismo intenta llenar ese hueco, pero le falta mística y le sobra política.

[Pablo Malo @pitiklinov]

“Si tus opiniones sobre un tema se pueden predecir a partir de tus opiniones sobre otro, es posible que estés atrapado en una ideología. Cuando de verdad piensas por ti mismo, tus conclusiones no serán predecibles.”

-Kevin Kelly, de Excellent Advice for Living

[NEXTA @nexta_tv]

🔥 Sikorski brought the heat at the UN Security Council: “Sergey, tell your boss: enough is enough”

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski addressed the Russian delegation directly, pointing to the gap in economic power between Russia, Poland, Europe and NATO.

“You have been trying to conquer Donbas for over 12 years and Kyiv for over four. You have been stopped by heroic Ukraine — a country whose GDP is one-tenth of Russia’s.

But Poland’s GDP is almost half of yours. Europe’s is 10 times bigger. NATO’s is 25 times bigger.

You can still kill a lot of people, but you cannot win. You can stop this imperial war of choice at any time. Don’t endanger Europe and the world any further. Stop destroying Russia’s future.”

[Garry Kasparov @Kasparov63]

Damn Ukraine! 😂

[Taylor Popielarz @TaylorPopielarz]

A collection of alarming comments made *in the last four days* by seven different people who are inside the AI world ⬇️

Jacob Coxon, former AI researcher at Anthropic and OpenAI:
"The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade.”
https://t.co/5Z9uJKShTN

Samuel Marks, Scalable Oversight lead at Anthropic:
"AI developers believe their technology could cause human extinction (or similarly bad outcomes). This could happen in the next few years.”
https://t.co/0r11ta1JJR

Evan Hubinger, Alignment Science lead at Anthropic:
"Jacob is correct here—we really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans!”
https://t.co/RJ0oOKTmG6

Alex Turner, former Research Scientist at Google DeepMind:
"I left Google DeepMind in June. Jacob is right: many researchers believe they are building something that could kill everyone on the planet. It was literally my day job to think about how to stop that."
https://t.co/oShamWC3o2

Jakub Pachocki, Chief Scientist at OpenAI:
"This is a time that calls for extreme caution. I am concerned no one is prepared for the consequences of a continued rapid rise in machine intelligence.”
https://t.co/TLpzxwHYBl

Jason Wolfe, Researcher at OpenAI:
"I don't know what my probabilities are on literal extinction, but I think there are a number of ways AI could go poorly for humanity, and at the current frankly terrifying pace humanity will be quite lucky if we manage to find and stay on the narrow path between all the bad outcomes.”
https://t.co/HaqDHDz6Fi

Jonathan Richard Schwarz, former Senior Research Scientist at Google DeepMind:
"I left DeepMind after 7 years (and since rejected offers to join the other two) due to severe concerns about the concentration of power these labs represent. What is currently happening in this field is deeply unhealthy for society.”
https://t.co/WD5U958Yuy

(I made this unimpressive screenshot montage but linked to their thoughts in full above)

[Trasgu @Trasgu83]

@bellumartis Como siempre, excelente análisis!

[Jacob Coxon @hilbertspaess]

I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.

[Trasgu @Trasgu83]

@JaimeMercant El uso de la fuerza siempre ha sido, es, y será legítimo para defenderse de quien agrede primero.

[Trasgu @Trasgu83]

@domontovich Please add some way to exchange Euros and Dollars into Rubles. Especially at the beginning Euros are useless

[Trasgu @Trasgu83]

@domontovich +Dry Fuel, Kek, other rare hideout ítems: Either increase their spawn, add a barter to get them, add a hideout recipe from common items, or reduce the amount needed. They tie progress to a random chance, without flea it's not just "harder", it's impossible to progress if unlucky.

[Trasgu @Trasgu83]

@domontovich Bonus: make FIR multiply x1.5 the value of an item so FIR is relevant for bartering.

[Trasgu @Trasgu83]

@domontovich Use "Items from category building materials valued > 50.000 roubles" as a cost. Makes life easier for you too, don't have to balance hundreds of individual barters, only adjust the value of the individual items from time to time (which can be automated by tying to flea price)

[Trasgu @Trasgu83]

@domontovich +Many common items don't have a relevant barter so you end up with tens of them or have to sell them to traders for nothing. A barter system like "3 identical items from the tool category get you X" with X being something useful or a reasonable amount of roubles.