Everyone screaming “this move has just begun” is ignoring reality.
#Bitcoin bottomed in November 2022. Since then, it’s already done an 8x. We are not at the start. We are much, much closer to the end.
If we’re lucky, there are one or two more glorious pushes left.
If you’re managing risk, learning from your mistakes and refusing to quit, stop obsessing over how long it’s taking.
The reps aren’t delaying your success.
They’re building the person who can handle it when it comes.
Good morning.
The opening bell hasn’t even rung, and traders have already decided how September ends.
To be fair, September has earned its reputation as a weak month for stocks. It may live up to it again.
But seasonality is context. It is not a trade.
After a big trading loss, your first goal is not to make the money back.
It’s to become the trader who would never lose it that way again.
Someone messaged me after spending five years building a $100,000 account. Then, in one month, he lost 90% of it.
Today is Tim Cook’s final day as Apple CEO.
Apple when he took over from Steve Jobs: roughly $350 billion.
Apple today = roughly $4 trillion.
He spent 15 years being compared to Steve Jobs and never tried to become Steve Jobs.
Maybe that’s the lesson...
No one tells you how hard it is to rewire your brain to allow amazing things to happen after experiencing so much trauma or pain.
Blessings exist...
Let it happen.
One of the most expensive habits in trading is needing the market to prove your old opinion was right before you’re willing to change it.
You were bearish at $60k. Bitcoin goes to $70K, and it’s “just a squeeze.” Then $75K
Everyone keeps asking whether altseason has started.
I think that question skips a step.
Before a market gets broad, it usually gets a leader.
Friday’s ETF flows… Bitcoin: -$201.9M
Ethereum: +$102.1M
Sunday watch:
https://t.co/aXJrz8fh92
Bitcoin went RED → BLUE → GREEN in a flash.
I think the bear market is over.
Now the market has to prove it.
Regime Cycle #2 shows how the bulls have the wind at their back now. What will they do with it?
Come see.
As long as you are alive and well, you still have another chance to succeed.
That is why health must come first. It is the foundation of every comeback, every dream, and every future win.
One of the greatest things you can give your children has nothing to do with money:
Teach them how to recognize a good life while they’re living it.
Otherwise, they may spend decades chasing things they already had.
Money teaches price.
Wisdom teaches value.
Want to understand markets better? Study this post right here.
Stop looking only at how far price moved. Start watching how hard the market had to work to get there.
At the June 6 low, one thing I pointed out was that Bitcoin’s trip from $82K back toward $60K took substantially longer than February’s liquidation into the same area. The destination looked unbelievably ugly, but the way price got there was different, and that mattered.
Now we’re getting the other side of that test.
Starting around March 30, Bitcoin needed more than a week of grinding to work its way from the spring area back to 72k... This time it has done most of that work in just a couple of days.
So far, so good. But the bigger tell comes next.
Last time, getting from that spring area all the way back to $82K took roughly five weeks. If Bitcoin can work through the same supply and do it materially faster this time, while keeping the reactions shallow and holding the ground it gains, that tells us something important...
There may simply be a lot less supply left to work through.
That’s effort vs. result in real time.
Don’t just ask where price went. Ask how much work it took to get there.
Bitcoin just hit one of my favorite momentum signals.
Daily RSI closed above 85.
I’ve studied every one of these sequences I could find in Bitcoin’s history.
The initial 85+ close has never marked the immediate intermediate top.
Every sequence I catalogued went on to:
print at least 3 drives above 85
produce at least a mini-parabolic run
Most traders see RSI at 85 and think “overbought.”
Bitcoin has historically treated that first extreme reading a lot more like momentum than exhaustion.
And I’ve always wondered how much Bitcoin’s scarcity contributes to that behavior. When demand suddenly accelerates, higher prices don’t create more Bitcoin. Price has to keep searching for somebody willing to sell.
None of this means straight up.
It means I’m not going to fight extreme strength just because an oscillator says Bitcoin is “too strong.”
I posted this phenomenon in 2019. Again in 2020. Again in 2023. All produced amazing results.
And here we are again.
History doesn’t owe us another repeat.
But until price proves otherwise, I’m treating this as momentum worth respecting.
NEW VIDEO: https://t.co/aXJrz8fh92
Last Thursday, the Regime Cycle turned GREEN.
I think the bear market is over.
That doesn’t mean blindly chasing every green candle.
Good morning to everyone, especially those who realize support is not just a line on a chart.
A level matters because of what price does when it gets there.
Does it reject? Hold? Reclaim? Spend time above it? Get accepted below it?
The line tells you where to look.
Regime Cycle Video #2 is finished.
Last Wednesday, Bitcoin flipped BLUE.
Tomorrow morning I’ll break down exactly what changed, why I currently believe the bottom is in, and what I need to see next to stay with that view.
https://t.co/FY8MehWOeR