The biggest mistake I see with $NBIS is investors obsessing over signed contracts.
Contracts don't drive revenue. Energized capacity does.
Nebius has already proven demand exists. The question now is how quickly contracted GW convert into live, revenue-generating MW. Every new MW that comes online immediately starts feeding the ARR engine.
That's why Q3 and Q4 matter far more than another press release. I care less about who signs next and more about how fast Alabama, Missouri and other sites get energized.
The second thing the market is underestimating is Vera Rubin. If Nebius is among the first independent clouds with large-scale Rubin deployment, it becomes one of the few places frontier AI labs can access next-generation compute without building it themselves.
To me, the thesis has evolved.
Phase 1 was proving demand.
Phase 2 is converting power into revenue.
If energized MW ramps the way management suggests, I suspect the market is still dramatically underestimating how quickly NBIS can grow into its valuation.
I stay bullish and I havent sold a single share since I bought it..
Tomorrows Watchlist 🏆
$NBIS Swing
8/21 280C if we re-test 228-230 🎯246, 270
$INTC Swing
7/17 140C if we re-test 113 🎯130, 150
$APLD Swing
7/17 50C if we open above & hold 42.50 🎯50
$QCOM Swing
7/17 250C if we hold above 191 tomorrow 🎯227, 240
Exclusive Watchlist with LEAP Ideas for Subscribers ONLY 🔒