PnL Enthusiast

Money losing investor. Man of few talents. I move 30+ turtles out of the road annually.

[PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap]

Ended up allocating back into solar earlier today.

Names I bought that seem interesting:

$CSIQ
$JKS
$SEDG
$ENPH
$TE
$FSLR

Also bought $FLNC

Missed the early JKS move but caught the tail end. TE imo is the most speculative, not sure how I feel about it but wanted exposure. CSIQ could squeeze, short interest is very high. FLNC margins are getting squeezed but the sector should see strong demand.

Everything seems bullish for solar/grid storage going forward. Oil likely to remain higher, Dems may sweep midterms (and extend 45X credits), countries will be focusing on energy security after the Hormuz debacle.

[PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap]

@institLPGP In agreement with you here. Only thing I'd add is given how fast the models are advancing & my belief the cost of intelligence will continue to decline, I'm in the camp that long AI adopters is one of the better R/R trades in the market

[PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap]

Reiterating that if I were to construct a portfolio that I believe will outperform the index this is where I'd start. Add $MKTX and $TW to the list too, they're starting to look quite juicy. Also one last hot take: AI adopters > AI providers looking out a couple of years

[PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap]

These former compounder names seem like a great place to find long-term holds for the portfolio while the AI trade absorbs all of the liquidity. ABT, KBR, ZTS, BSX, MDT, CELH, BR, SE, MELI, LDOS, PODD etc. Will post a full list sometime later

[PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap]

@DeepDishEnjoyer @MidwestHedgie Thank you. Absolutely respect @MidwestHedgie but I’m with you that dressing up this sort of stuff and sex work under the guise of empowerment is hiding an ugly truth. People can do what they want, but I don’t think we should delude ourselves into thinking it’s truly progressive

[PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap]

These former compounder names seem like a great place to find long-term holds for the portfolio while the AI trade absorbs all of the liquidity. ABT, KBR, ZTS, BSX, MDT, CELH, BR, SE, MELI, LDOS, PODD etc. Will post a full list sometime later

[PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap]

It’s the entire payment’s space, not just FOUR. FOUR structure is convoluted with a lot of moving parts/rollup overhang so it’s difficult to determine what its organic revenue growth and earnings are.

Was thinking about buying here but it’s not a “clean” story. And even if it were I’m not sure it’d be performing a ton better, take a look at EEFT FIS FISV

[PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap]

Interesting. I used them almost a decade ago but found the couple courses I took (math/programming) to be of reasonable quality. Not great to hear they’re not properly vetting programs or pushing garbage quality ones.

Appreciate the heads up, I parsed online reviews and sites like Reddit and saw some complaints about functionality/peer review system etc but didn’t see anyone flag the quality of the content as poor. Definitely makes me think twice

[PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap]

Current portfolio post-sale. Have cut most of my winners that had run significantly, sticking with my "value" stock losers. Will probably exit JFB and potentially QURE soon to add more cheap garbage. Also planning on selling out of TE/FLNC, was hoping for a mid day bounce and didnt get it

[PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap]

Sold half my QQQ puts here around 3:25pm, a bit early. Managed to end the day -2.9% because my whopping 12% allocation to solar shitcos brought my whole portfolio down an additional 2.5%. Payments never able to catch a break, of course

[PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap]

Sold both of these. NKTR wasn’t able to get off the mat, made ~30% on ABVX. Good enough for me, seeing too much bull cope on the timeline now. Could still work but people will want to sell as it goes higher, imo easy money has been made

[PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap]

Sold RXRX bought NKTR and ABVX with the proceeds. Droolers and people with low conviction got run over, time to get burnt myself. Selling on both feels excessive

[PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap]

I will say it's a bit of a punt for me, if it breaks down here I'll probably cut it and try again once it can hold a level. I don't think BK is a near-term risk but I do have some concerns about how much satellite internet will impair subs. Currently seems to be trading more off of sentiment and acting as a funding short than trading off the actual value of the underlying business. That being said though given that it feels so disconnected there's no reason for me to think that it can't go lower in the near-term

[PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap]

Added $CHTR this morning. Obviously an equity stub, high risk, satellite internet & fiber overhang. Feels too cheap here, credit not pricing in BK risk and most debt is longer-dated

[PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap]

I’m not a huge semis bull at current valuations but the reply to your post is hilarious.

“This model is equivalent to a $100k/yr analyst, probably good ROIC���

“But the $100/month plan is subsidized, the true cost is higher!”

How subsidized does he think the plans are?? Not to mention inference costs are likely to trend lower over time as the models/hardware improve. The real potential bear case here imo is that the LLM space has intense competition and could become commoditized outside of tasks requiring frontier level intelligence, which likely requires huge amounts of capex to remain a leader in

[PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap]

@AB1001_disciple I feel like an idiot haha, thought it was a nickname. Thanks for this, going to take a look

[PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap]

He liked… The Rip? The woman and I were howling laughing at how bad the entire thing was. Disappears into a random house and comes out with a cartel member as his best friend. IIRC someone gets shot in the leg and has a tourniquet applied and there’s zero urgency and she’s walking around like nothing happened. And then when they get picked up by their contact in the MRAP they just leave the two women there including the woman who got shot w/ the tourniquet.

And then they hit the FBI road block and they’re like “don’t get out of that car or we’ll blow you away!” And Affleck and Damon hop out guns drawn basically points toward the FBI, which turns into them splitting up for the EPIC chase scene finally, where somehow the army of FBI agents gets left behind holding their dicks so that we can have two SUPER cool 1v1s between the main characters and the antagonists.

Just so absolutely atrocious and cliche. Hilarious to watch though, there’s probably about 5 other scenes that had us laughing but I can’t recall them as it was so forgettable

[PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap]

Sold RXRX bought NKTR and ABVX with the proceeds. Droolers and people with low conviction got run over, time to get burnt myself. Selling on both feels excessive

[PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap]

Last post on this but I continue to pound the table on $COUR, $1.6b mcap w/ $1.15b unimpaired cash. $500m buyback announced. Seen as an AI loser but has strong potential to become an AI winner both as an AI enabled education platform and for retraining due to AI job loss. Guiding for ~$200m EBITDA on what will be $800m EV post buyback. SBC is a headwind but they've established a $10 price floor for equity grants, management fairly aligned w/ shareholders

[PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap]

@DeepDishEnjoyer Hello fellow broccoli man disciple 🫡

[PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap]

@peonyKingOF I’ve taken a look at that one a few times with a similar line of thinking, actually think they may end up being an AI partner to improve local service referrals. $COUR also priced as an AI loser but may end up an AI winner, $1.15b in cash on ~$1.6b mcap, $500m buyback announced

[PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap]

Anyone have an opinion on whether $MAR is a short here? I normally avoid shorting on valuation alone but this one is a boring business where I probably won’t get my face ripped off. Feels like potential inflation + oil price could be a headwind to the business over the next 12mo