Thomas

[Thomas @TW__III]

$AMZN Successful retest. It broke the 200D SMA and reclaimed in 3 days. That’s bullish. Besides that tomorrow is the start of July!⬆️⬆️

[Thomas @TW__III]

Agreed. For a second there, I thought you were going to say the VIX. Although I should have known better as you’re more versed than I. Now supporting evidence… haha

SPX July returns, year by year:

2015: +2.1%
2016: +3.6%
2017: +1.9%
2018: +3.6%
2019: +1.3%
2020: +5.5%
2021: +2.3%
2022: -8.4% ⚠️
2023: +3.1%
2024: +1.1%
2025: +4.5%

10 of 11 years green.
Avg (all): ~+2.0%
Avg (ex-'22): ~+2.9%

[Thomas @TW__III]

Sentiment is awful on $MSFT yesterday came down and hit the 200W SMA.

- 40% Azure growth
- $37B AI run rate growing 123%
- Beat EPS 4 consecutive quarters

The technology sector average forward PE is 35.11 — Microsoft at 20x is trading at a 43% discount to its own sector.

MSFT’s current PE of 23.57 is 24% below its 10-year historical average of 30.95 — and its forward PE of 21.46 is lower than both its 3-year average of 33.02 and its 5-year average of 32.88.

[Thomas @TW__III]

@vandy_trades What a place to bounce. $MSFT

[Thomas @TW__III]

@Chartfest1 You know what that means..⬆️🆙

[Thomas @TW__III]

Anytime the wise offer this level of wisdom, you listen and apply it.

[Anthony Crudele @AnthonyCrudele]

I spent over two decades as a full time futures trader and scalper, and I learned your edge isn’t just your strategy. It’s your focus.

It’s the amount of hyperfocus it takes every single day. Blocking everything out, slowing your heart rate down, staying calm, believing in your homework, executing at a high level. Trading has to be your number one focus each day. So if you’re learning to become a successful trader, here are three things you may be focusing on that are working against you.

First, other people’s money. Stop looking at how much everyone else is making. That’s the number one thing you have to look away from. I was around thousands of traders on the floor and I barely remember us talking about money. It was private. The goal was to build a life. It felt blue collar. Today everyone talks about what they make, trying to prove someone wrong about the market. It’s a different place, and a lot harder for a new trader to block the noise out.

Second, the access. Overnight used to just be overnight, where you managed a position if you had one. Set time to start, set time to break, set time to come back. We traded mornings, skipped midday, came back for the close. Now the access never stops, and it’s spread everyone’s focus too thin to stay locked in.

Third, understanding the market environment. We move between environments at a very rapid rate. We go from trending higher with no signs of a pullback, buy the dip and hold on, straight into sell off mode. Trying to guess what those days will be like going into them is very difficult. You have to stay open minded and understand how quickly the tape can change. Last Friday was the perfect example. A market runs higher a lot further than most thought, then unravels all at once. It’s the same psychology we see in traders. They stay in their own trend for only so long, then unravel all at once. If you’re not focused, or you’re clinging too hard to one market environment as you move into the next, you aren’t allowing things to be what they are. You’re fighting them for what they were.

So here’s the simple part. Slow everything down. Survive a game where you pay your bills and stay in long enough to make a living. There will be moments this business really pays you, and you won’t choose them. They choose you. The rest is grinding, surviving, enjoying the process. Arguing with people on social media is a time waster, and the people who do it are usually unhappy in their own lives. Spend your time wisely.

Focus is the whole game. Protect it like your account depends on it, because it does.

Enjoy your life. Have fun. This is the greatest business in the world if you let it be. And it’ll be the worst, and destroy your life, if you let it.

Cheers, DELI

[Thomas @TW__III]

That pullback was needed and also a gift on names that you really like. Don’t listen to the people that are saying this is the end and the stock market is crashing. It’s not. $MSFT is one of those names for me. Long-dated calls. IV was still relatively low on these at 33. This name is still very much in an uptrend. That prior to just a couple of weeks ago has been a laggard in this market. #Rotation

[Thomas @TW__III]

Would like to see $AMZN hold that $255 level which was previous ATH. If it can it will push right back to new ATH soon!

[Thomas @TW__III]

What a great week! Hope to carry the momentum into next week. Patience and discipline go a long way! $MSFT $AMZN $NOW $SPY

[Thomas @TW__III]

@vandy_trades I think that close is a little deceiving considering it’s month end and all the rebalancing that occurs, especially when it comes to MAG7 names.

[Thomas @TW__III]

Follow a process and stick to it. Simple. Good day today. I have been talking about software and specifically $MSFT for some time now. Rotation is happening. $SPY $AMZN

[Thomas @TW__III]

@The_RockTrading $MSFT

[Thomas @TW__III]

@The_RockTrading Someone had too. 😂

[Thomas @TW__III]

@pdicarlotrader These contracts today had 35k+ in volume with OI of 157. 🧐😳 Someone expecting a quick move next week. 🆙⬆️ $TSLA

[Thomas @TW__III]

$MSFT Weekly bull flag. 🐂🚩

[Thomas @TW__III]

Pivoting ORCL → MSFT.

Same AI thesis. Monthly B LONG [2/3]. CLEAN ribbon. T1 555.45.

And the IV won't eat you alive.

Aug 18th $440C

That's the trade.

[Thomas @TW__III]

🧵 The software rotation thesis is one of the most asymmetric setups I see right now. Here's the full breakdown 👇

1/ IGV is down 22% from its ATH while SPY is near all-time highs. That divergence doesn't stay open forever. The coil is compressed.

2/ Goldman pushed the "durable software rally" to 2H 2026. JPMorgan called SaaSpocalypse "hitting a wall." Institutional money is starting to rotate. We're early.

3/ The Cem Karsan framework supports this. Expect vol into June OpEx (June 18 — Triple Witching). After that? Summer of George. Vol compression, vanna/charm flows, slow grind higher. High-beta laggards like software get bid hard.

4/ Now look at the ORCL weekly chart 👇

— Massive parabolic run to $340 in late 2024
— Full retracement back to the $130s by early 2026
— Now recovering with price reclaiming the 200-week MA zone
— RSI bottomed near 30 and is curling back up — currently 54.69/41.07
— Lower oscillator (MACD-style) just printed a fresh green signal off deeply oversold levels — the exact same setup that preceded every major leg higher on this chart
— Key resistance: $209.53. That's the level to watch

5/ My play: ORCL August 18th $200 Calls

— Earnings June 16 is a built-in catalyst inside the window
— OCI = core AI infrastructure partner
— Pentagon AI contract confirmed
— Staged entry — adding post-earnings on vol crush if the print delivers

6/ Defined risk. Full conviction. Let the thesis develop.

NFA

#ORCL #IGV #OptionsTrading #SoftwareStocks

[Thomas @TW__III]

If this break above $412 can hold for $MSFT I will be looking at June calls.

[Thomas @TW__III]

Just like @vandy_trades says 1k a day keeps the 9 to 5 away.😂😝 $SPY