Tyler Longo

Data scientist. Chess, poker, and all around games enthusiast. Gambling addict. 2021 DK FBWC Winner.

[Tyler Longo @TylerLongo]

Got a surprise present today, thanks @DraftKings

[Tyler Longo @TylerLongo]

Hopefully not now…

[Underdog NBA @UnderdogNBA]

Shams: Kawhi Leonard views this as an opportunity to retire in Toronto.

[Tyler Longo @TylerLongo]

@ShipMyMoneyDFS I’ve probably taken enough from the DFS/Splash ecosystem 😇

[Tyler Longo @TylerLongo]

This isn’t a good thing IMO. I know that winner take all is the nature of survivor, but fewer big winners doesn’t sound good for your players or the ecosystem. You need a massive bankroll to justify entering this contest.

Looking forward to your other offerings though!

[TJ Ross @tjross]

@grpwins That means we may see a solo winner. Likely 1-5 winners is our guess

[Tyler Longo @TylerLongo]

@spanky @CircaSports Big assumption there that this won’t overlay with the guarantee (like a lot of Splash pools)

[Tyler Longo @TylerLongo]

@sagaciousoaf @scott_seiver I mean I’m a noob too. On its face this HH is wild so was wondering if there was info from other players or something. But yeah, what the wizard said.

[Tyler Longo @TylerLongo]

@NelsonAdcock @2Hats1Mike Let’s go!

[Tyler Longo @TylerLongo]

@ShipMyMoneyDFS If it makes you feel better, I wrote like 2000 lines of code for these things and it unequivocally said you’d be an idiot to play Purdue this morning so, we’re both jackasses

[Tyler Longo @TylerLongo]

@StevenBridges In case you’re implying he’s incorrect, it’s absolutely 50%. This isn’t the same as counting, which is advantageous because you can change bet sizes (not because you win more frequently). If you want a proof:

[Markov @MarkovMagnifico]

this felt so wrong to me so I tried out this strategy: As soon as you have flipped more reds than blacks, pick the next card

my reasoning was this: By drawing cards, we're doing a random 1-dimensional walk guaranteed to start and end at 0. Surely we dip negative at some point in most possible decks - more reds drawn than blacks, at which point our win odds are >50%

the result: Well yes, we go negative in 96.3% of cases, but this strategy barely eeks out a >50% win rate in those cases. The 3.7% of cases where our walk never goes negative drags the average win rate back to a perfect 50%

to bring this back to your startup metaphor - you might think you're gaining information, positioning yourself slightly better... but! you're also overlooking the likelihood that you're in the the cursed 3.7% of timelines where you don't know it yet but you're doomed

[Tyler Longo @TylerLongo]

@Pooyaism Love the content Pooya! I thought the finale missed the mark, especially from an editing perspective. Tough with 2 hours, but many bad game decisions without context, plus we didn’t get a payoff for many storylines (no Coco reveal, Meredith/Cagla reveal, etc). Justice for Coco.

[Tyler Longo @TylerLongo]

@ShipMyMoneyDFS Yeah I dunno, all the Bo and George stuff looks sketchy to me… but I have no idea *how* they’re actually injured so I assume they’re doing the right thing?

[Tyler Longo @TylerLongo]

@ShipMyMoneyDFS @FantasyGuruDrew Well I don’t think we’re gonna see eye to eye on this one then lol

[Tyler Longo @TylerLongo]

@ShipMyMoneyDFS @FantasyGuruDrew I’m not arguing he’s amazing I’m saying he’s not some dud and the guy he was replacing looked like shit when he was replaced

[Tyler Longo @TylerLongo]

@ShipMyMoneyDFS @FantasyGuruDrew Don’t think it’s just a speed thing, Kirk is out of shape and looked awful going to first. Heineman had 1.5 war this season it’s not like he’s some dud.

[Tyler Longo @TylerLongo]

@ShipMyMoneyDFS @FantasyGuruDrew Yeah fair enough. I’d make the same decision at the time and feel pretty comfortable with it

[Tyler Longo @TylerLongo]

@ShipMyMoneyDFS @FantasyGuruDrew I just think they’re getting alot of flack for decision making as if they were supposed to know the game would go 18 innings (and they had plenty of chances to win)

[Tyler Longo @TylerLongo]

@ShipMyMoneyDFS @FantasyGuruDrew For sure. And again, I there’s other things to criticize (I think straw in for barger was a boo-boo).

But also, Springer got hurt, Bo probably shouldn’t play 18 innings at 2B with 2 more games to come, etc… It’s really easy to say stuff like this in hindsight 🤷🏽‍♂️

[Tyler Longo @TylerLongo]

@ShipMyMoneyDFS @FantasyGuruDrew As a lifelong Jays abuse victim… Of all the things you can criticize from last night, I think this is the last one. Heineman is not awful, Kirk came up funny in his last AB, and he isn’t exactly a shining specimen of fitness you want playing a 6 hour baseball game.

[Tyler Longo @TylerLongo]

https://t.co/6ofG366LSK

[Peer Richelsen @peer_rich]

hey what about cancer