_ES

404
The cosmic object you were looking for has disappeared beyond the event horizon.

[_ES @UnderscoreEs]

めも

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREKAING: China now accounts for ~28% of global manufacturing, more than any other country or economic bloc.

This percentage has more than tripled since 2004.

By comparison, US factories account for ~17% of global manufacturing value added, or 11 percentage points less than China.

In 2004, the US proportion stood at ~22%, more than double China's.

Meanwhile, the Eurozone economy represents ~15% of world manufacturing, while Japan accounts for just ~5%.

China has become a critical component of global manufacturing.

[_ES @UnderscoreEs]

memo

[BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking]

Senior US Senator Lindsey Graham dies from "brief and sudden illness", his office says https://t.co/ZKfQk7bJGj

[_ES @UnderscoreEs]

めも

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Kim Jong Un declares North Korea will “fully exercise” its status as a nuclear weapons state.

[_ES @UnderscoreEs]

memo

[Justin Drake @drakefjustin]

Today a crazy quantum story just got wilder.

On March 31, the Google Quantum AI team published a landmark result on Shor's algorithm for elliptic curve cryptography. Technically, the paper was a bombshell: a dramatic 10x improvement over the state-of-the-art. As a stunt and wakeup call to the blockchain space, those optimisations were illustrated on secp256k1, the elliptic curve underlying Bitcoin and Ethereum signatures.

But perhaps the most striking part of the paper was sociological, not technical. Instead of following standard academic process, the optimisations were kept secret, hidden behind a zero-knowledge (ZK) proof. Google's accompanying blog post mentions they "engaged with the U.S. government". The ZK proof demonstrates the existence of algorithmic improvements without leaking details. Academic censorship with ZK, a historic first!

As a co-author of the Google paper I witnessed some of the context surrounding this censorship. To be honest, multiple aspects of that context don't sit well with me. As much as I believe the general public ought to know more, I am limited in my ability to whistleblow. Though let me be clear about one thing: the Google team's professionalism has been absolutely exemplary, and they deserve nothing but praise.

Censorship has a way of backfiring. The Streisand effect, where an attempt to bury something only draws more attention to it, is exactly what's unfolding today. First, Google's key optimisation has been rediscovered by the French. And in a thrilling turn of events, a collaborative Shor-at-home challenge just launched. The initiative, available at ecdsa[.]fail, breached a new Shor world record in a matter of hours.

Let's start with the rediscovery. Just two months after Google's paper, French quantum expert André Schrottenloher cracks the main secret optimisation. His paper, titled "Optimized Point Addition Circuits for Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithms", landed on the arXiv today. Big congrats to André, who beat several other nerdsnipped experts to it. In a blog post also published today, Craig Gidney, the world expert on Shor optimisations, revealed that he'd been sitting on this very optimisation for a whole year under censorship pressure.

Interestingly, André missed a handful of minor optimisations, both from Google's original publication and from improvements found since. It's plausible there's still plenty of juice left to squeeze out of Shor, and this is exactly what the ecdsa[.]fail challenge is about. The verifier program developed for the ZK proof does double duty, automatically filtering for valid submissions. Dozens of compounding small and micro improvements are rolling in. As of the time of writing there's an 8.4% improvement to Google's circuit, as measured by the product of logical qubit count and Toffoli gate count. Nice!

The nerdsnipping ran deeper than anyone expected. Over the last few weeks it became clear it extended well beyond André and other quantum experts. Behind the scenes, a small army of amateurs quietly got to work. Inspired by Karpathy-style autoresearch, they turned AI on Shor. Ironically, the verifier program for the ZK proof makes an ideal reward function for AIs. The barrier to entry for this modern style of research is refreshingly low, with several non-experts, even a teenager, finding nice optimisations. Get in touch if you'd like to join a Telegram group with fellow autoresearchers :)

Part 2: neutral atoms and qday

The story doesn't end with Google. On the same day Google went public, a stealthy startup called Oratomic published its own Shor paper in a coordinated release. It made a splash, ultimately becoming the most upvoted paper on scirate[.]com, a website ranking arXiv papers.

Oratomic's claim was wild. By building on Google's logical optimisations and applying custom physical optimisations for neutral atoms, they claimed just 10K physical qubits were sufficient to run Shor's algorithm on secp256k1. That number is mind-bogglingly low.

Knowing essentially nothing about neutral atoms when Oratomic's paper landed, I was intrigued and decided to learn more about the tech. I fell straight down the rabbit hole and spent a couple hundred hours on the topic. I got a little obsessed and watched every YouTube video I could find and spoke to a bunch of experts.

My conclusion? The tech is real, very real. Even Google recently decided to start a neutral atom lab, a notable pivot from their sole focus on superconducting qubits. If you care about qday, i.e. the day a quantum computer will break the first piece of cryptography in production, neutral atoms demand your attention. I shared some of my learnings on Shor and neutral atoms in a 30min talk at the ZKProof cryptography conference. You can find it on YouTube by searching "zkproof neutral atom".

Here's an interesting observation about this duo of breakthrough papers: neither Google nor Oratomic say a word about what their results mean for qday. No timelines. Zero. Nada. That is especially baffling given that the whole point of whitehat quantum cryptanalysis is to inform qday estimations and help the general public make good decisions.

So let me attempt to partially fill the silence, similarly to what Scott Aaronson did in his April 29 post. Given everything I know, including scary non-public information, I now put the odds of qday by 2032 at 50%. 10% by 2030.

Anecdotally, the US government has its own date: 2035. Originating at the NSA and later adopted by NIST, it's when branches of the US government will be disallowed from using quantum-vulnerable cryptography. In plain language: with hindsight, that date is a joke and should be discounted entirely. I don't see how NIST avoids being forced to pull it forward by years.

Part 3: post-quantum cryptography

There are good reasons to sound the alarm today, but please do not panic. Rushing carelessly towards immature post-quantum cryptography is a recipe for disaster. IMO a good target date for migration is 2029, roughly 3.5 years out. 2029 happens to be the date selected by Google, Cloudflare, and the Ethereum Foundation.

These days most of my time goes to safely migrating Ethereum towards post-quantum cryptography as part of the broader lean Ethereum effort. There's a lot to do. We need to rip out and replace BLS signatures at the consensus layer, KZG commitments at the data layer, and ECDSA signatures at the execution layer.

The plan to get there is compelling, and is based on hash-based cryptography. Within the Ethereum Foundation we've developed a Swiss army knife called leanVM (github[.]com/leanEthereum/leanVM) powered by the magic of hash-based SNARKs. Thanks to truly exceptional work by Emile, Thomas, and others, its performance is derisked. Regarding security, leanVM is a jewel, a minimal zkVM crafted for end-to-end formal verification and maximum security.

Want to help? There are two $1M initiatives. First, the Proximity Prize (proximityprize[.]org). Solve a long-standing mathematical conjecture in coding theory, improve hash-based SNARKs, and go home a millionaire. Second, the Poseidon Initiative (poseidon-initiative[.]info), offers $1M for breaking Poseidon, the SNARK-friendly hash function.

[_ES @UnderscoreEs]

めも

[NHKニュース @nhk_news]

NATOのウクライナ支援司令部に自衛官派遣へ 防衛省
https://t.co/uG1a3ytvQY #nhk_news

[_ES @UnderscoreEs]

めも

[ロイター @ReutersJapan]

米司法省、トランプ氏や親族の税務調査「永久禁止」　訴訟和解に続き https://t.co/3jCfZlskdw https://t.co/3jCfZlskdw

[_ES @UnderscoreEs]

memo

[Paolo Ardoino 🤖 @paoloardoino]

188B USDT (ATH)

[_ES @UnderscoreEs]

memo

[日本経済新聞 電子版（日経電子版） @nikkei]

ロシア・北朝鮮の国境で自動車橋が連結　全長5キロ、夏に開通
https://t.co/Elvda9sAjJ

[_ES @UnderscoreEs]

15. 戦後のドイツと日本の去勢は撤回されなければならない。ドイツの無力化は、ヨーロッパが今重い代償を払っている過剰修正だった。日本平和主義への同様で高度に演劇的なコミットメントは、維持されれば、アジアの力の均衡を脅かすだろう。

[_ES @UnderscoreEs]

3. 過去の“軽い前兆”

完全ではないがヒントになる例：

東日本大震災
→ ガソリン不足・物流停滞
コロナ初期（2020）
→ マスク・食品の棚消失
👉 どちらも部分的に再現済み

[_ES @UnderscoreEs]

めも

[NHKニュース @nhk_news]

政府 自衛隊などの「特定利用空港・港湾」新たに17か所指定
https://t.co/U4o8YoQM9F #nhk_news

[_ES @UnderscoreEs]

原油価格高騰

[味ポン @ajipondu]

今度日銀に行く高田創さん、「金利の40年サイクル」をずっと昔から言ってて興味深い。曰く、過去40年の国際金融は米→欧→日の順に利上げをして、最後に日銀が利上げをした時に相場が崩壊するというもの。原油価格も何故か同時に高騰するというジンクスも完全に言い当てている。

[_ES @UnderscoreEs]

めも

[Emin Yurumazu (エミンユルマズ) @yurumazu]

自分の書籍で何度も主張して来たことの一つは今後中東の原理主義が後退し、各国で世俗主義が台頭する新たな時代が来ると言うことです。そもそもイスラム教をベースにした主義をつくったのは米国です。それが対ソ連軸で必要でした。役割を終えた今弊害でしかない。