Petrol at Rs 30/litre in Pakistan sounds crazy. It is not. What is crazy is the policy failure that prevents it.
Petrol is around Rs 300/litre today, excluding government levy, here's how it can effectively be Rs 30/litre.
People do not consume petrol for its own sake; they use it to travel. The average Pakistani rides a motorbike. A fuel-efficient motorbike can travel about 60 km on one litre. An efficient electric scooter can travel about 30 km per kWh, so it needs only 2 kWh to cover the same 60 km.
What should 2 kWh cost in Pakistan? Pakistan is one of the best places in the world for solar, with an all-in LCOE cost of around 5 cents per kWh. The electricity cost is 10 cents, or Rs 30/litre of distance travelled! The Rs 30/litre calculation remains the same for cars.
The 300-versus-30 gap is the cost of bad policy. It reflects billions of dollars of saving that could instead finance EV infrastructure: charging, distribution, battery swapping, and smart pricing software etc. - boosting much-needed domestic investment.
Since solar is highly modular. You do not need massive scale to get reasonable efficiency. That creates business and employment opportunities for small domestic power producers. Instead, Pakistan leaned into large fossil-fuel plants financed by dollar-denominated borrowing and guaranteed returns.
Local firms face credit constraints, but solar creates a natural collateralizable cash flow through electricity sales to the grid. With the right regulatory framework, this could have unlocked large private domestic investment, and employment.
Battery swapping is another area where small local businesses could have emerged and scaled.
Electricity enables smart pricing. When solar supply is abundant, prices can fall, and poor households and firms can shift usage to cheaper hours - automatic demand stabilization
Better air quality would mean longer, healthier lives and higher productivity. That is a growth multiplier
Green technology industries could be developed domestically with the right industrial policy, easing balance-of-payments pressure while raising employment and investment.
Instead, Pakistan chose imported-fuel power plants, protected a backward-looking domestic auto sector, and raised electricity prices by burdening them with the fixed costs of those plants and heavy taxation, slowing EV adoption. Then came the net-metering fiasco, all to keep zombie power plants alive.
Pakistanโs energy policy may be the clearest example of a broken nervous system. I hope someone fixes it, because people are paying the price, 300-versus-30
A new life is beginning for you. Doors you never noticed are opening. Great opportunities are lining up for you. Everything is miraculously shifting in your favour. Prayers are getting answered. Blessings are rushing towards you. Don't give up on yourself. It is all working out.
Huge respect to Pakistan ๐ต๐ฐ for playing a positive role and contributing to the global good. Your efforts havenโt gone unnoticed truly commendable! ๐
How Pakistan made the world over 3 trillion dollars richer
On April 7, the world edged toward Trump's 8pm ultimatum that "a whole civilization will die tonight." By mid-afternoon, Polymarket gave less than a 5% chance for a ceasefire. But then in a flurry of last-minute diplomacy led by Pakistan's PM Shehbaz Sharif, ceasefire odds shifted from near-impossibility to 100%, as both U.S. and Iranian leadership publicly acknowledged the important role played by Pakistan.
The sharp shift in probability of ceasefire from near-zero to certainty, allows us to estimate cleanly the market value of Pakistan's successful diplomacy. There was a sharp jump of 2.9% in S&P500 around the ceasefire announcement. The reaction was similar the world over.
Global markets represent about $125T, so a 2.9% jump represents a gain of 3.6 trillion dollars for the world. Pakistan helped create TEN times its own GDP for the world!
For me, the best part is not the trillions of dollar, but seeing Pakistan on the world stage as a peace maker.
I hope Pakistan runs with this new identity by promoting peace not only abroad, but also at home. That means moving away from politics of division and exclusion, and treating every citizen as its own.