#FOMC Dec 10:
The cut is theater. The 2026 dots are the script.
#Markets want 2-3 more cuts. Powell's got sticky inflation at 2.8% and a labor market that's cooling but not collapsing.
Somebody's wrong. We find out today.
[https://t.co/uND5WEhplg]
The labor market isn't tight; it's frozen. High continuing claims + negative private payrolls = JOLTS disappointment.
The Fed has no room to be hawkish today.
[https://t.co/50xByg0eYA]
#JOLTS#FederalReserve
Market pricing 80-90% odds of Dec cut. Cleveland Fed nowcast says 0.24% MoM vs 0.2% consensus. Someone's about to be very wrong.
https://t.co/ZjpbICfLue
The Engine That's Left
#ISM Services drops today. Manufacturing has contracted 9 straight months—it's cooked.
Services = 80% of #GDP. It's the only thing holding this up.
Below 51.5 breaks the soft landing story. 35% chance it happens.
Full breakdown: [https://t.co/etlN4rhSQG]
Eurozone flash inflation drops tomorrow 10:00 GMT.
Headline expected 2.1%, core stuck at 2.4%.
Services still running hot at 3.4%.
ECB watching. Markets pricing no cuts until late 2026.
Full breakdown: https://t.co/XfUUQY0Mc1
#HICP#ECB#Inflation
Market pricing 55% chance of a "boring" print tomorrow. Consensus is complacent.
Asymmetric risk on German CPI: • Beat estimates → 2026 cuts off the table. • Miss estimates → Doves panic.
Ignore the noise. Watch 14:00 CET.
#Forex#Macro#Trading
https://t.co/8uRXTeG7Ok
The shutdown killed October's payroll data.
Now everyone's watching weekly claims and a delayed September durable goods report.
This is what "navigating the data void" actually looks like.
#Fed#EconomicData#Shutdown
https://t.co/TUHtfY4AMH
62% of households expect unemployment to rise—highest since 1980. Yet consensus sees +0.4% retail growth in Sep. Pre-shutdown reality check drops in 24 hours. #Economy#RetailSales#FedPolicy
https://t.co/nBvh8LVpAt
Forget the headlines.
Following the 43-day shutdown, tomorrow's Philly Fed is the ONLY clean read on whether the US economy is breaking or just distorted.
Jobless Claims & Housing? Just noise and backlog.
We're watching the signal.
#USD#Gold#Bitcoin
January 30 isn't the end of the shutdown story. It's the next deadline.
Markets aren't pricing a resolved crisis. They're pricing recurring governance risk.
That premium is embedded in yields, multiples, USD flows.
#USShutdown#Economy#Stocks https://t.co/c2AohY8bIg
4 out of 9 BoE members wanted to cut rates last week. Tomorrow's jobs data might give them the ammunition they need.
Unemployment ↑ Wages still 5% ↑
#GBPUSD#BankofEngland#UKEconomy#JobsData
https://t.co/2g7OFl1S2w
Data Vacuum Alert: UMich Sentiment is now the Fed's only compass.
5-year inflation expectations (3.9% prev.) = the real anchor test.
Above 4.0%? EUR/USD pressure. Below? Rally mode.
Full 3-scenario breakdown: https://t.co/9DMUGZXSNd
#EURUSD#Fed#Shutdown
NFP is gone. ADP & ISM are the market now. Services = 80% of GDP. If services stall again today, the Fed's next move practically writes itself.
#USD#Fed#PMI#Stagflation
Buckle up.
Full analysis: https://t.co/3hHeJP8GCg
$EUR Tightrope: Oct 31, 11:00 CET ECB pause under test: - Services Inflation (Sticky Wages) - 0.0% Growth (DE/IT) Core HICP signal decides next move, not energy noise. Full Forecast: https://t.co/DGanyKIV9X #ECB#HICP#EURUSD#Eurozone
ECB's real test: Can Lagarde hold at 2.15% if German Q3 GDP turns negative, confirming technical recession? Tariff drag hitting manufacturing. Watch Balance Sheet signals, not just rates. Pivot point approaching. #EUR#ECB#GDP
https://t.co/Fpg2n6reur
Fed: 25bp cut is priced. The risk is Powell’s tone on 911K job shock vs. 3% CPI. Shutdown makes data blind. $DXY / Gold / $SPX volatility expected at 14:30 ET. https://t.co/bbRl731Ujr #FOMC#RateDecision
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