Rafael Velásquez

People will wait for rice, but rice waits for no one.

[Rafael Velásquez @Value_Quant]

@__paleologo @AffectiveAutism

[Rafael Velásquez @Value_Quant]

@AdvisorsMidwest @IanShepherdson https://t.co/lIUQRhIzHl

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

The index of aggregate weekly payrolls for private-sector workers, which combines hiring, wages, and hours, rose at its slowest pace of the current cycle in January.

Wage growth firmed but hours worked dropped a lot

The 12-month rate slowed to 4.7% in Jan from 5.9% in Dec

[Rafael Velásquez @Value_Quant]

@greg_ip and this isn't even taking into account the shelter lag that's already baked into the inflation cake over the next several months

[Rafael Velásquez @Value_Quant]

@therobotjames lapply

[Rafael Velásquez @Value_Quant]

@macrocephalopod But enough about the Russell 2000

[Rafael Velásquez @Value_Quant]

@SpikeEskin Those Green Fees were non-refundable

[Rafael Velásquez @Value_Quant]

@sdav1986 @choffstein when people talk about 'home country bias' what they really mean is 'not enough US Large Cap in my portfolio bias'

[Lawrence Hamtil @lhamtil]

Recognizing that growth can be cheap and value can be expensive

[Rafael Velásquez @Value_Quant]

@EpsilonTheory The soft landing was 22Q4-23Q1, we've been in a new cycle since then

Inflation is currently at 2% and has been for several mths, shelter lags just obscure it. No reason to think at the moment inflation will pick up any moderate amount. 1-3% core over next two years seems likely

[Rafael Velásquez @Value_Quant]

@EpsilonTheory Its not people are currently 'bad' its that they're worse than they were in 2021 so they're not happy.

The data fits the model, and all the extravagant vibecession explanations are concocted by people that did not benefit from stimulus so don't get it.

[Rafael Velásquez @Value_Quant]

@EpsilonTheory Back in 2000 Douglas Hibbs found growth in Real Disposable income per capita was the best predictor of incumbent vote share.

Lo and behold it dropped substantially when the stimulus disappeared and fits the consumer confidence data quite well.

[Rafael Velásquez @Value_Quant]

@VegaVandal it mostly is, it just takes a while, Zillow is purple, BLS is light blue

[Rafael Velásquez @Value_Quant]

@NateSilver538 Inflation is definitely part of it, but I think the impact of the stimulus payments is more important and fits very well with the consumer confidence data.

[Rafael Velásquez @Value_Quant]

@GScottShand Other than that Mrs. Lincoln how was the play?

[Rafael Velásquez @Value_Quant]

@NateSilver538

[Rafael Velásquez @Value_Quant]

@M_C_Klein @NateSilver538 Seems to fit the consumer confidence data

[Rafael Velásquez @Value_Quant]

@M_C_Klein @NateSilver538 Maybe that's not how they should feel if they were perfectly rational.

But it's how households have historically behaved for decades and not a case of 'this time it's different'