intrinsic valuator

Equity analyst focused on intrinsic valuation | DFCF modeling • Monte Carlo simulations • Competitive moats • Long-term fundamentals

[intrinsic valuator @ValueIntrinsiCF]

Leonardo $LDO Analysis:
📉 Intrinsic Value: ~€54
💎 Quality score: 7.5/10
💡 Verdict: HOLD

Great business benefiting from the defense supercycle. Its CEO is executing an impeccable transformation of the company. But at €64 there's no margin, it's already priced for perfection

[intrinsic valuator @ValueIntrinsiCF]

"Our owners’ time horizon extends beyond the tenure of any individual CEO. 20 years from now, when I will have just a fraction of the tenure that Warren had, my intention is that you – or your descendants – will be proud that your company is even stronger"

Greg Abel as $BRK CEO

[intrinsic valuator @ValueIntrinsiCF]

$VID latest results:
Market´s flows are missing a fortress balance sheet, master capital allocator and LatAm expansion.
📊 Price: €80.00
🎯 Value: €111
🚀 Upside: 40%
🛡️ Undervaluation Prob: 97.6%
⚙️ Quality 8/10
Cash flow will eventually silence the noise. 🍷 #Vidrala

[intrinsic valuator @ValueIntrinsiCF]

$ADBE is severely mispriced. The market is pricing in an AI apocalypse for a CF machine with wide moat.

📊 Quality Score: 8.6/10
📉 Price: $258.61
🎯 Intrinsic Value: $364.89
📈 Upside: +41.1%

Check my hypotheses and run the MC simulation with your own
https://t.co/5txQA3gECU

[intrinsic valuator @ValueIntrinsiCF]

Analysis of $CI post-FY25 📊

Price: $292 | Value: $621
Upside: +113% 🚀

Moat: Becoming the biggest PBM provider and with better MCR than the competitors.
Super-stable FCF and with >5% of shares repurchased yearly, plus dividend.

#ValueInvesting #Cigna

[intrinsic valuator @ValueIntrinsiCF]

Just performed a valuation after Alphabet's $GOOGL results:
Mean value: 266$
Current: 333$

Higher ROIC on the huge CAPEX or other bets could surprise. But the 20% difference suggests caution.
Alphabet's a beast, but price demands flawless execution.
What's your view?

#GOOGLE

[intrinsic valuator @ValueIntrinsiCF]

@StockSavvyShay I ran an intrinsic valuation of $ASML after their 2025 results. These are the numbers:
Price: €1200
Fair Value: €910 (€120 std. dev.)

To justify the current price, you must bet the MOAT lasts forever (WACC > ROIC) or that it will grow >20% over the next 10 years.

[intrinsic valuator @ValueIntrinsiCF]

@VanguardEconomy $META es las empresas con mayor puntuación de calidad que he analizado y a un precio que parece ser justo siempre que continúen siendo capaces de mantener crecimientos elevados. Aun considerando que tanto la reinversión como el ROIC acabarán bajando. Veremos cómo acaba la peli.

[intrinsic valuator @ValueIntrinsiCF]

Valuation: My Monte Carlo simulation shows a 94.3% probability of undervaluation for $ROG.
📊 Current: 350 CHF
🎯 Intrinsic Value: 464 CHF
🚀 Upside: +32.7%
At this level, the market gives you the pipeline for FREE. A fortress balance sheet with 39 years of dividend growth. ⚓️📈

[intrinsic valuator @ValueIntrinsiCF]

Deep dive into Roche $ROG 2025 results 🇨🇭

A "Quality Compounder". The unique hybrid model (Pharma/Diagnostics) saw record pipeline success.

While the market fears a strong CHF and China headwinds, the pivot into Obesity and Alzheimer's creates huge long-term optionality. 🧪
🧵

[intrinsic valuator @ValueIntrinsiCF]

Statistical Equilibrium.
My analysis shows $META trading at fair value.
-Price: $738.31
-Value: $748.48

It's pricing an upcoming period of a huge reinvestment rate with high growth. The question is whether they will perform and deliver the high expected returns afterwards.

#AI

[intrinsic valuator @ValueIntrinsiCF]

Is $ASML cheap?
I ran an intrinsic valuation after their 2025 results. These are the numbers:
Price: €1200
Fair Value: €910 (€120 std. dev.)

To justify the current price, you must bet the moat lasts forever (WACC > ROIC) or that it will grow >20% over the next 10 years.

[intrinsic valuator @ValueIntrinsiCF]

$ASML delivers record FY2025 results:
Revenue: €32.7B (+16% YoY)
Earnings: €9.6B (+25% YoY)
OCF: €12.7B (+13% YoY)
Backlog: €38.8B (+8% YoY)
EUV unit avrg. price: 250m (+25% YoY)

2026 Outlook: Sales €34B -€39B.
2030 Outlook: Sales €44B -€60B.

#ASML #AI #StocksToBuy

[intrinsic valuator @ValueIntrinsiCF]

Current $LVMH situation:

► Qualitative: The fall after the post-COVID boom is not yet recovered and creates uncertainty on its MOAT.

► Quantitative: The stock does not look cheap.
With the current situation, the median intrinsic value is 447.96€ (std. deviation 75€).

#LVMH

[intrinsic valuator @ValueIntrinsiCF]

Stop gambling on growth stories.
Greenwald’s method builds value in 3 layers:
1- Asset Value: Reproduction cost.
2- Earnings Power Value: EPV= Earnings\WACC
3- Growth: Only counts if ROIC > WACC

Find a MOAT where EPV > NAV, then value it🛡️
https://t.co/5txQA3gECU

[intrinsic valuator @ValueIntrinsiCF]

Investing is a psychological game as much as a financial one. 🧠📉
Avoid the following psychological traps and focus on performing a thorough and conservative valuation.

To stop guessing and start measuring, you can use this:
https://t.co/5txQA3gECU

#Investing #Greenwald

[intrinsic valuator @ValueIntrinsiCF]

I have updated my intrinsic valuation of TSMC:

The market isn't blind. The price of $TSM is not just "paying for quality", it discounts a decade of flawless execution.
Greatest business on Earth? Yes. Alpha left at this price? Doubtful.

Try yourself: 👇
https://t.co/5txQA3gECU

[intrinsic valuator @ValueIntrinsiCF]

TSMC just dropped the most insane earnings report in industrial history.

$TSM manufactures the most complex hardware in history with the profitability of a software company. And they say they expect to keep this pace for the next years.

Masterclass of MOAT.

#AI #China #Taiwan

[intrinsic valuator @ValueIntrinsiCF]

@TheLongInvest Indeed, my $NVO Montecarlo analysis results show: Prob. of Undervaluation: 99.8%.
Mean Intrinsic Value: $109.21.
Current Price: $52.40.
Even in the 95% VaR scenario (flat earnings), the intrinsic value is ~$71.

Feel free to share your numbers too!
https://t.co/5txQA3hcss

[intrinsic valuator @ValueIntrinsiCF]

I’m opening this to the community. No sign-ups, no paywalls. Built with Python for serious investors.

Try it on your favourite stock here: 👇https://t.co/5txQA3gECU

What feature should I add next?

#investing #stocks #data #FinTwitt
$NVDA $TSLA $AAPL $MSFT $GOOGL $BTC

[intrinsic valuator @ValueIntrinsiCF]

Most DCF models are broken. They assume a single, "perfect" future and maybe a couple extra cases. But markets don't work that way.

I built a tool that runs a Monte Carlo simulation for any stock to find the range for its intrinsic value.

It turns guessing into statistics. 🧵

[intrinsic valuator @ValueIntrinsiCF]

Static growth rates are a trap. If you guess 10% and it hits 8%, your thesis dies.
This tool lets you input a range for each variable, considering thousands of "parallel universes."

Whether it's $NVDA, $TSLA, or $AAPL, stop guessing. Start simulating. 🧠
https://t.co/5txQA3gECU