ValueNotDeadYet

Manage the Expectations, Manage the Outcome

[ValueNotDeadYet @ValueNotDeadYet]

@jeremie0117 @AurelionRsch

[ValueNotDeadYet @ValueNotDeadYet]

Well?

[TrendSpider @TrendSpider]

You said you'd buy the next dip.

Well, here we are...

[ValueNotDeadYet @ValueNotDeadYet]

@AssetTraveller There is nothing to do but cut Capex.

Funny that it’s Rogers itself that killed the entire industry by their greed in buying Shaw…

Ironic

[ValueNotDeadYet @ValueNotDeadYet]

@InvestInOnG @Metalpanthers @z_or_zee please educate our friend about the beauty of Winnipeg 😂

[ValueNotDeadYet @ValueNotDeadYet]

@WilliamSirett @harisvromas @TeleHInvesting Earnings will show what is happening, between now and then it’s noise IMO.

Agreed it’s a spectacular outlier past 60 days

[ValueNotDeadYet @ValueNotDeadYet]

@jeremie0117 @AurelionRsch Look if $NVDA fails $SPY is going to-20%

So yes its a solid play

[ValueNotDeadYet @ValueNotDeadYet]

@WilliamSirett @harisvromas @TeleHInvesting Feel that way… but why? You have $20M cash + the $30M Debt.

If so then it’s a $0 and thesis is completely broken

[ValueNotDeadYet @ValueNotDeadYet]

He knows that the Oilers have 2 crack left at the cup & came ready to work.

If the Oilers don’t make it to the promised land… it won’t be for his lack of trying and he can move on in 2028 with a clean conscious.

#Oilers enjoy this bc it won’t be forever…

[NHL @NHL]

Connor McDavid through 10 games this season:

8 goals
31 points
26 primary points
8 multi-point games
6 three-point games
4 four-point games
3 five-point games
+18 rating

[ValueNotDeadYet @ValueNotDeadYet]

If ever you needed to understand algos and factor rotations look at $MCD and $PG lol charts vs AI basket last 60-90 days…

Nothing changed since early Oct for either name except AI implosion

[Barchart @Barchart]

McDonald's $MCD is now up 10% since the October low 📈 📈

[ValueNotDeadYet @ValueNotDeadYet]

@tlaubers FYI… hopefully we don’t downgrade Q4 because of the war and Euro riots…

[ValueNotDeadYet @ValueNotDeadYet]

Muse on $FOUR

“The universe has a sense of humour. Management will be on the 8:30 call explaining that Paris is a temporary headwind while Paris is, at that moment, on strike.

At least the Q4 colour will be honest — they'll be able to see the impact from the window.”

$META

[ValueNotDeadYet @ValueNotDeadYet]

@Crussian17 They must have said something on the call, probably about LT pricing?

[ValueNotDeadYet @ValueNotDeadYet]

$WDC $MU $DRAM $NVDA

[ValueNotDeadYet @ValueNotDeadYet]

Anyone else feel like the weight of the #AI trade rests on $WDC shoulders this evening...

[ValueNotDeadYet @ValueNotDeadYet]

Anyone else feel like the weight of the #AI trade rests on $WDC shoulders this evening...

[ValueNotDeadYet @ValueNotDeadYet]

@P_Remarks Great call, paper handed that one... shame

[ValueNotDeadYet @ValueNotDeadYet]

@negligible_cap C) Both are down bc Trump is going to bomb Iran for Xmas

[ValueNotDeadYet @ValueNotDeadYet]

@trend_bullish No, for once $NVDA down… it’s actually bullish $WCE.NE

[ValueNotDeadYet @ValueNotDeadYet]

@TeleHInvesting @harisvromas Management credibility is indeed 0. Now if they book a Monday morning CC to bomb the stock -50% it’s all time low

[ValueNotDeadYet @ValueNotDeadYet]

@harisvromas @TeleHInvesting brutal stuff. Market saying its dead.

Q3 report and tone there will show us if this is dead or not...

no sugar coating the trading since early July though (rightfully so?)

[ValueNotDeadYet @ValueNotDeadYet]

Insider buy (higher) + LT setup makes this an interresting play despite ST noise

Good write-up by James below

$BORR

[J Mackay @JamesHMackay]

I feel like I need to explain that tweet.

$BORR 29 premium jackups with an average age of 10 years, the youngest fleet + plus a 50% stake in 5 more.

Net debt $2.3 billion, refinanced out to 2032 and 2034. $4.21 the market values each rig at about $117 million after debt.

NAV of $8 to $9 equals about $155 to $165m per rig, or 55-65% of the $250 to $300m to build a new jackup.

$8-9/share NAV needs average day rates $150k-$155k with 26 of 29 rigs working, compared with about $134k today, easily supported by the current strip. $10 million of value per rig adds about $0.94 per share of NAV.

December 2027 Brent is at $86, a record for the contract, and the long end of the curve is calling for more supply.

Modern jackup utilization is about 92%, close to the level where dayrates historically jump.

11 jackups are under construction worldwide and about 100 aging rigs could retire over the next 7 to 8 years.

Idle rigs are already going back to work, with Joro, Norve and Natt newly committed.

Founder Tor Olav Troim has bought 12.85 million shares worth about $57 million since August, including 9.5 million in October at an average of about $4.49. He now owns 13.1% of the company and the stock trades below his October price.

Most important: January to April is generally contract award season. If Q1 2027 contracts come in at $150k or higher the market will have to re-rate $BORR

Where am I wrong here? Seems like one of the best oil beta plays.