valuetothebear

Go anywhere investor. Particularly in the energy, material & industrial sectors, finance, telecom & semiconductors a secondary interest. Contrarian mindset

[valuetothebear @Valuetothebear]

@leevalueroach This guy is learning, he is still young so in a few years he will see it as a blessing to learn early on. (I had my fair share in the past best/only way to really learn)

[valuetothebear @Valuetothebear]

@nanalyzetweets Sure no discussion there

[valuetothebear @Valuetothebear]

@ArendJanKamp Niks comedy caper, deze landen hebben zitten pitten qua doormodderen met een sociaal onhoudbaar systeem. Zeker België daar is het niet 1 voor 12 maar al zeker half 3 ‘s nachts

[valuetothebear @Valuetothebear]

@leevalueroach Hal trust, very solid holding and underlying companies (I worked over a decade for one of its participations) good capital allocations, long term focus and culture

[valuetothebear @Valuetothebear]

That is 1 part of the message, the other is to explain the ‘native’ population as from tomorrow ‘they’ have to do the shitty jobs and/or pay for it at multiples of the price. Cleaning, whipping asses, making food, delivery etc etc sorry no personnel and if so price times 3 or 4. I wouldn’t say a showstopper, but at least explain to the lazy consumer there is a price as always

[Brivael Le Pogam @brivael]

On my way to the office this morning, I passed a group of young people protesting, a Palestinian flag draped over their shoulders.

And I asked myself a question I can't shake: why does this generation always fall into the same trap? No matter the history. No matter the context. Even the ones from wealthy families, who went to the best schools, who were dealt every good card. Always the same trap.

I don't think it's stupidity. I think it's a mechanism. And a mechanism can be taken apart, piece by piece.

A. The observation: everything the state touches becomes unaffordable.

Look at economist Mark Perry's famous chart, the one people call "the chart of the century." It tracks US prices since 2000.

At the top, what explodes: hospital services, college tuition, textbooks, childcare, housing. Increases of +100%, +150%, up to +250%, far above general inflation.

At the bottom, what collapses: TVs, software, phones, toys, clothing. A TV today costs a fraction of what it did in 2000, for an infinitely better product.

Look at what separates the two groups. It isn't technology. It isn't complexity. It's one variable: how much the state is involved.

At the top, sectors that are subsidized, regulated, shielded from competition, where the state funds demand and blocks supply. At the bottom, sectors where companies fight every single morning to serve you better and cheaper.

B. The mechanism: why it's systematic.

When the state subsidizes demand without freeing supply, prices rise. Every time. Guaranteed student loans, and universities raise tuition. Housing aid plus blocked building permits, and rents skyrocket. Administered healthcare, and bureaucracy eats the budget before it ever reaches the patient.

In France it's even more vicious, because the price doesn't disappear: it hides. You never see the hospital bill, you pay it through payroll contributions. You never see the cost of school, you pay it through taxes. Public spending at 57% of GDP, one of the heaviest tax burdens in the world, more than €3.4 trillion in debt. And the result? Overflowing ERs, falling PISA scores, young people who can't afford to live in the city where they work.

The market didn't fail in these sectors. It was never allowed in.

C. Suffering demands a culprit.

A 22-year-old lives all of this in their bones. They can't find a place to live. Their degree either buries them in debt or opens no doors. The future feels blocked. That suffering is real, and I don't deny it for a second.

But human beings can't stand suffering without a culprit. They need a face. A scapegoat.

And this is where everything is decided: who taught them how to read the world?

D. Whoever tells the story picks the villain.

Schools are public. Universities are public. Culture runs on grants. Film goes through funding committees. Public broadcasting shapes the narratives. The people handing down the interpretive framework are, overwhelmingly, paid by the very system that creates the problem.

Do you really think that system is going to name itself as the culprit?

No. It names the capitalist. The boss. The landlord. "The rich." The multinational. The commercial West. Same role, same casting, every time.

E. One lens, a thousand causes.

And this brings me back to that flag. A generation taught to read every situation through a single lens, oppressor on one side, rich, Western, capitalist, oppressed on the other, will apply that lens everywhere. To housing. To climate. To conflicts on the other side of the world. The cause changes, the lens stays. That's why the trap is always the same: it's not the cause that draws them in, it's the way of thinking that was installed in them.

F. The perfect inversion.

Here's the irony. Capitalism is the force that drove down the price of almost everything it touched. The state is the force that blew up the price of almost everything it captured. And young people blame the first for the crimes of the second.

It's like blaming the firefighter for the fire because you saw him at the scene.

G. The ballot box confirms it.

In the US, a few weeks out from the midterms, a large share of urban young voters is getting ready to vote Democrat for more state, more spending, more regulation. New York elected a self-described socialist mayor, carried by young voters, on promises of rent freezes and city-run grocery stores. Rent freezes, the policy that has made housing scarcer everywhere it's been tried. The cure that worsens the disease.

In France, it's the same play in two acts. Part of the youth votes for the radical left, which promises more state. Another part votes for the center, which promises to "manage" the state well, and has dug the debt deeper than ever. Two different ballots, one shared assumption: the problem is the market, the solution is the state.

H. The way out.

These young people aren't stupid. They're right to be angry. They're just aiming at the wrong target.

The day they understand that their rent, their tuition and their hospital are expensive precisely because the state runs them, their anger will change direction. They'll stop protesting against those who create. They'll start protesting against those who capture.

That day, the greatest intellectual scam of our time will be over.

[valuetothebear @Valuetothebear]

@mr_Smith_Econ @beursanalist Antwoord zit in de groep ouderen activeren meer/langer mee te doen of laten betalen (lees ipv via de staatskas/AOW of zorg), geen leuke boodschap maar het schip gaat steeds harder richting de wal.

[valuetothebear @Valuetothebear]

45,2% van het BBP is de overheidsuitgaven, prachtig in lijn met de banengroei dus. Het probleem is dat we een quasi planmatig gedreven economie hebben gecreëerd, alleen ipv een investeringsplan is het een verzorgings/consumptie planmatige economie. Ofwel een gefinancierd bejaardenhuis en daycare omdat de nog overgebleven werkenden deze groepen in de lucht moeten houden.

[valuetothebear @Valuetothebear]

Tbh that is a bit easy, France is using sufficient protectionism itself, has an industrial base that could easily exploit the same imbalance in Europe since the Euro. The thing that differs is a socialist system (or better holiday system) with a pension system incomparable to the north and the same can be said on easiness of access to social benefits during working age groups.

[valuetothebear @Valuetothebear]

Oh people in Western Europe are spoiled to the extreme, the thing is we never experience hardship for about 80 years (collectively I mean, there are always lots of individual cases). Eastern Europe is a whole different case with probably only about 20 years (max) of really improving conditions. On the other hand people learn very quickly during hardship/crisis including these ‘decedent Western Europeans’.

[valuetothebear @Valuetothebear]

@charles17187887 @QTRResearch @elonmusk Good luck competing with the v3 satellites in dense urban areas. The whole attractiveness of Starlink is for the more less urban/remote areas (both as replacement for cable/fiber as well as telecom) and not just the US but global

[valuetothebear @Valuetothebear]

@BiankaB12 Well said

[valuetothebear @Valuetothebear]

@JavierBlas @staunovo Try running an electricity system with peak or intermediate load on coal or renewables. The whole point of LNG is the flexible layer, its best comparison is oil (HFO/diesel) or batteries.

[valuetothebear @Valuetothebear]

@jtourzan It’s the hard left in Berlin they were, are and will be communist forever 🤷‍♂️

[valuetothebear @Valuetothebear]

@webcomunismo @Jesse_Livermore This is communism/socialism in its best way proudly standing with the hammer sickle…..Let’s also celebrate publicly with a brown suit incl Swastika on the arm, both equally sick regimes of the past.

[valuetothebear @Valuetothebear]

@SlootLau D met minimale inspanning vind je makkelijk 20 a 30 mld. Het wordt dan alleen lastig om bestaande belangen en heilige huisjes aan te pakken. Maw het wordt A en met name C (de inflatie belasting)

[valuetothebear @Valuetothebear]

@Gfilche @AlexanderKr Trust me I like the technology, but I see the price going down (materially) instead of up in the next 3 to 5 years. Better be prepared for (also) such a scenario I would say in terms of valuation (so yes still attractive, cash wise, but not the blue sky numbers I often see)

[valuetothebear @Valuetothebear]

@ArendJanKamp @VVD Ben oprecht verbaasd dat het er nog 12 zijn

[valuetothebear @Valuetothebear]

@RobPJS At this point I would do it for BTC ;) (in the end all the same crap and eager following crowd….)