The current FX conundrum perfectly summed up by @EpsilonTheory
The war is bullish USD until it isn't.
"A paradox is emerging in which the war simultaneously strengthens the dollar's short-term position through traditional crisis demand while eroding the institutional foundations that support its long-term dominance. Treasuries are not functioning as a safe haven, fiscal deficits are expanding under wartime and stimulus pressures, and the media language that once argued forcefully that there is no alternative to US largecap growth is fading. The convergence of rising inflation expectations, weakening growth signals, and retreating confidence in dollar-denominated assets points to a market caught between competing time horizons—seeking dollar safety now while quietly pricing that the post-war world may look structurally different."
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