gen z capital

Meme stocks and FinTwit favorites

[gen z capital @vibesnotvalue]

(15/15)
5) 10% WACC falls to 8.25% over time - fair assumption
6) Terminal multiple of 11x EBIT - fair assumption
7) AMC raises $600 million at $1.50/sh over time - optimistic assumption

It's difficult to see $AMC being worth anything long-term. Too much debt and declining.

[gen z capital @vibesnotvalue]

Adding $AMC to the meme stock tier list.
Rating: C-tier. PT: $0.19/share
A thread 🧵

Thesis:
1) AMC is decoupling from GME and losing relevance
2) AMC will likely never be profitable
3) Shareholder dilution is problematic
4) Meme factor keeps AMC out of D/F tier for now

[gen z capital @vibesnotvalue]

(14/15) AMC DCF (19 cents/share value):
1) 0 reinvestment (Depreciation = CapEx) - optimistic assumption
2) 0 NWC needs - optimistic assumption
3) 4% revenue CAGR through 2029, then 2% after - optimistic assumption
4) EBIT margins rise to 6% by 2029 - optimistic assumption

[gen z capital @vibesnotvalue]

$PLTR's revenue growth (70% YoY) is still well ahead of customer count growth (34% YoY). Topline is also decelerating (70% YoY in Q4 2025 vs. 60% YoY in FY 2026).

[gen z capital @vibesnotvalue]

Upgrading $PLTR to B tier from C tier post earnings. US commercial revenue growth was stronger than I expected. I think there's potential for $PLTR to run post-earnings. We could also see a few analyst upgrades.

[gen z capital @vibesnotvalue]

I'll be looking to downgrade $PLTR to C-tier soon. I think revenue decelerates faster than expected. Alex Karp previously said that 25%ish annual revenue growth was his medium-long term expectation.