Vinoth Baskaran

"Growth@Value "

[Ronit Pereira @CAronitpereira]

“Don’t ever aim to find the multi-baggers. Just keep it really simple. “

“The hand of god will be on you if you try to earn 15% per year return. You’d be surprised how many stocks compound 35% then.”

“Only common sense makes money in the markets, not maths.”

- Sanjoy Bhattacharya

[Pankaj Tibrewal @pankajtibre]

One interesting observation from the recent market recovery…

Over the last 3 months:
• Nifty 50: +7.6%
• Nifty Midcap 150: +17.4%
• Nifty Smallcap 250: +24.2%

Even over the last 1 year, midcaps (+4.4%) and smallcaps (+0.3%) have outperformed large caps (-5.1%).

But here’s where it gets interesting…

Despite the indices being positive over the last year, the median stock is still down 2.4% in the Midcap 150 and 5.8% in the Smallcap 250. Even more telling, only 44% of stocks in both indices have delivered positive returns over the last one year.

In other words, the rally hasn’t been as broad-based as the index levels suggest. A relatively small group of strong performers continues to do much of the heavy lifting in last one year.

However the picture is beginning to improve, though. In the last 3months, nearly 77% of midcaps and 83% of smallcaps have turned positive, suggesting that market breadth is finally broadening.

Another fascinating statistic is the dispersion of returns.

The gap between the best and worst performer over the last year is:
• Nifty 50: 88%
• Midcap 150: 156%
• Smallcap 250: 308%

Even in the so-called “safer” large-cap universe, the spread between winners and losers is remarkably wide.

Looking only at index returns can be misleading. Breadth tells you how many stocks are participating, while dispersion tells you how rewarding stock selection has been. It’s been a classic stock picker’s market.

Data as on 30th June 2026.

#IndianMarkets
#StockMarket
#Nifty
#Midcaps
#SmallCaps
#MarketBreadth
#Investing
#EquityMarkets
#ActiveInvesting

[Nooresh Merani @nooreshtech]

#NiftyIT sector Weight in #Nifty50 peaked at 18.18% back in March 2022.

Now it's down to 7-7.4%.

How Narratives and Themes change from Covid/Digitization to AI Pain.

[Kuntal Shah @Kuntalhshah]

Most investors sell their best compounders way too early. They see “fair value” in their mind and exit lock, stock, and barrel. Do NOT sell merely because something is fairly valued. Why?

As a great business compounds earnings and scales, it attracts big institutional money. Their required rate of return is much lower than yours. They happily pay higher multiples → your “fairly valued” stock keeps running. This is literally how multi-baggers are made after the initial re-rating.

Combine the 4 zones with Reverse DCF, instead of building a dreamy DCF to justify the price. Use reverse DCF — not to justify the price, but to interrogate whether the market’s embedded expectations can realistically come true.
Ask: “Under what conditions would the market’s current expectations actually come true?” If those conditions look unrealistic → you’re probably in Zone 3 or 4.

Liquidity and Interest rates are the gravity that pulls all these zones. When rates rise and liquidity dries, the zones shift left, and that's the time to sell.

Some practical aspects of invetsing and portfolio construction

Model 1: Use AI like a Ferrari, not autopilot
AI is incredibly powerful for retail investors — but only if you respect its limits.

• Data cleaning is 80% of the work (don’t dump raw 600-page PDFs)
• Create a curated “binder” document first
• Make the model confirm it understood context
• Run 4-5 LLMs as a “council” playing devil’s advocate
• Then apply human judgment, experience & justification.

AI narrows the search dramatically. It does not replace thinking.

Model 2: Ruthlessly eliminate 99.5% of stocks first. There are 4,000+ listed companies. You only need ~20 high-conviction ideas.

Eliminate top-down on fragility, leverage, stressed promoters, anything outside your competence or time horizon. This removes ~97% of the universe.

Then go deep, not wide. Missing some gems is a feature, not a bug. The science ends at 97-98%. After that, qualitative judgment (promoter behavior, runway, treatment of minorities) takes over. Investing is the last liberal art.

Model 4: Prepare for asymmetric bets (don’t try to predict).

You cannot predict black swans. But you can prepare. Best asymmetric opportunities appear when frightened or leveraged sellers are forced to sell (2008, 2020).

• Map the full range of outcomes + probabilities
• Seek disconfirming evidence (when you like a company, read only the bad reports)
• Do a pre-mortem before investing
• Fix a ruthless sell trigger in advance
• Keep a “tenth man” in your process

Downside should be finite and knowable. Upside can be open-ended.

Model 5: Portfolio construction & temperament. Concentration is powerful but behavioural, not scientific.
• Barbell: ~80% in 7-8 stable core compounders (sleep-well-at-night) + ~20% in 10-12 small optionality bets
• Only 16-18 genuinely non-correlated ideas are enough
• As your capital base compounds and you have more to lose → become more conservative (he now leans 20:80 instead of 80:20)

Invest bottom-up, but always worry top-down.

These 5 models work together: AI helps you process information faster →Ruthless filtering reduces noise →
Valuation zones + reverse DCF keep you disciplined →
Asymmetric bet thinking protects capital → Barbell portfolio + temperament lets you stay invested through cycles.

The goal isn’t to be right on every stock. It’s to build a process where good things happen more often than bad ones over decades. The biggest edge in investing today is not more information. It’s better filters, clearer mental models, and stronger temperament.

https://t.co/0etO30hyb0

[Vinoth Baskaran @Vinoth_Bas]

@skbokdia @unseenvalue Before the July 1 trading window closed, a big fund may have dumped blocks of Advanced Enzyme Technologies to beat the lock-out. Massive volume with 55%–66% delivery over the last 3 days suggests strong cash buyers are absorbing the floor. #AdvancedEnzyme

[Antifragile Thinking @unseenvalue]

Every Framework Needs an Exit Condition

https://t.co/SFOGtd7Ice

[My Value Picks @myvaluepicks]

There’s a great book by the wonderful investor Pulak Prasad, “What I Learned About Investing from Darwin.”

[Ashish Kacholia @LuckyInvest_ARK]

This is a fantastic investment master class by a really great practitioner. Spare some time and you will definitely be richer

[Dhaval (Investment Books) @InvestmentBook1]

Crude Oil Fraction Distillation

[Advait Arora @WealthEnrich]

Dont fall in this viscious trap.

[My Value Picks @myvaluepicks]

Portfolio: On Autopilot

[RedboxGlobal India @REDBOXINDIA]

DELHI DRAFT EV POLICY PUSHES FOR 95% EV REGISTRATIONS BY 2027

Positive for EV ecosystem; mixed for auto industry

Delhi’s draft EV policy proposes ending new petrol two-wheeler registrations by 2028.

Strong hybrid vehicles may receive road tax concessions.

The policy targets 95% of new vehicle registrations to be electric by 2027.

[Abhishek Basumallick @a_basumallick]

Fertility rates have plummeted across many states in India. Implications will show up two-three decades from now.

[Buggy Human @SridharanAnand]

This is a welcome step. Buybacks need frictionless, speedy execution to be a effective mode of capital allocation.
Dividends can be systematic, as they're stockprice independent.
Buybacks have to be opportunistic, as they are sensible at some stockprices & foolish at others. 1/

[CuriousInvestor @arc1471]

SBI bought NSE shares in 1993 at ₹0.80/share.

Today they're exiting via OFS at ~₹2,000.

8 crore shares. ₹6.5 crore invested. ₹16,000 crore out.

25%+ CAGR over 33 years.

Your FD is giving you 7%.

[Antifragile Thinking @unseenvalue]

One reason healthcare is so hard to disrupt is that it combines extreme complexity with near-zero tolerance for failure.

[My Value Picks @myvaluepicks]

“Do nothing dammit.” @SridharanAnand

[Vijay Kedia @VijayKedia1]

The duck does not chase every fish. Great investors don't chase every stock.
Patience is not inactivity. It is disciplined waiting.

#share #investor #stocks #sharemarket

[Ronit Pereira @CAronitpereira]

Vijay Kedia’s top themes for next 10 years

He calls them RISE:

> Renewable and transition energy:
“As oxygen is important to body, energy is important to nation. Due to AI and Data centres there’s an increased demand.”

> Infrastructure and Logistics: “This feels like a sunrise industry for next 10 yrs.”

> Security (Defence & Cybersecurity): “Every nation is becoming so much dependent on data, so if someone attacks on data centres, our entire system can come to a standstill.”

> Emerging Technology: “AI or Electronic vehicles, payment gateways, or data centres or the new technologies will do well.”

- Vijay Kedia. June 2026.
Discl: Not a recommendation

[sandip sabharwal @sandipsabharwal]

There is a whole Industry on Social Media who keep on cribbing on Ethanol Blending
1. Nearly 70% of the Ethanol today comes from maize, broken rice and grains
2. 48% of the total Non Sugar Ethanol comes from maize which is much less water intensive per tonne of production than most grains. It adds significantly to farmer incomes
3. Out of the sugarcane based Ethanol only 50% comes from direct juice. Remaining is from Mollasses, a byproduct of sugar production.

I just hope all these experts criticizing Ethanol don't drink liquor, because 100% of beverage alcohol is ethanol.