Visa honkanen

Pediatrician and phd, worked with healthcare AI and digitalisation since 2013. The biggest mystery is how kids learn.

[Visa honkanen @VisaHonkanen]

@JanneLehtonen4 Mielenkiintoinen lause, - en usko, että moni tekee vain rahan takia, koska ei paljon kiitosta saa. Tuo tarkoittaa, että
saisi kiitosta jos tekisi vain rahan takia.

[Visa honkanen @VisaHonkanen]

@MikaelNiku Noist suurin osa ei itse asiassa juurikaan tutki, ovat eläkkeellä ja/tai mielipidevaikuttajina/asiantuntijoina.

[Visa honkanen @VisaHonkanen]

@MikaelJungner @alasaarela Tarvitsisimme seikkaperäisiä laskelmia selkeästi ilmaistuin oletuksin ja epävarmuuksin. Nyt suurten yritysten johtoa myöten käydään prosenttien heitto-kilpailua. Elämme Theranos-maailmassa.

[Visa honkanen @VisaHonkanen]

Yleensä nämä pitkät postaukset ovat pettymyksiä, mutta tämä synnyttää catch-22 ajatuksia.

[Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand]

This is absolutely brilliant, by legendary Australian investor John Hempton, who explains the core financial paradox at the heart of the AI story (and which also, to some extent, may explain the Jensen Huang story).

The numbers say that about $7 trillion in AI compute is set to be built by 2030. For the industry to earn that back, given those chips have a roughly 5-year lifespan and cost a lot to run, they need to generate about $2 trillion of AI revenue a year.

Hempton says the only way you can get to these sorts of numbers is by selling AI as a productivity tool to businesses, meaning replacing workers.

And since, for reasons he explains in the video, no company fires people to save just 10% in costs, the savings have to be about double what businesses pay for the AI: roughly $4 trillion in savings on wages a year.

What does firing $4 trillion worth of workers mean concretely? Hempton calculated this equates to roughly 10% of the OECD’s total wage bill of about $40 trillion: one in every ten dollars paid to workers across the OECD’s 38 member countries.

Which, naturally, when you suddenly take that much income out of people’s pockets, would trigger a massive global recession.

And here's the paradox: in a massive global recession, there's no way businesses will pay $2 trillion a year for AI, so the return disappears anyway.

In other words, AI's only possible path to success given the numbers requires destroying the very economy that is supposed to pay for it.

HOWEVER - and here's where the Nvidia/Jensen Huang story might come into play (and, to be clear, this is now me speaking and not Hempton given this interview is prior to the whole Nvidia saga) - this all rests on a core assumption: that compute stays super expensive. Which in practice means Nvidia keeping its pricing power, with a 75% gross margin on its chips.

Break Nvidia's pricing power, and the $7 trillion bill, the $2 trillion in revenue and the 10% of jobs all shrink with it.

This would also put the whole China story in a different light. Maybe it's not so much a "we don't want the Chinese to be competitive with similar chips to us" story as it is a "we don't want Chinese demand to drive up chip prices" one. Or probably both.

And, as such, you could actually think about the US export controls not as a national security measure but as a good old subsidy for US AI players (together with a handicap for their Chinese competitors), a way to limit the price of chips.

This holds even with China itself blocking Nvidia imports, since Chinese firms simply rent the chips abroad instead, in places like Southeast Asia, which is precisely what this whole Alice Huang/Megaspeed story is about.

The main obstacle for all this was, of course... Jensen. Obviously, the guy wanted the exact opposite: as many buyers as possible, Chinese players included, to keep chip prices and Nvidia’s margins sky-high. He was also the one man with the clout to make that happen.

All hard to prove, of course, but I can imagine that quite a few corks popped this week in Anthropic's offices: nothing like the news that the man keeping your biggest cost sky-high is out when you're a week away from a $1.2 trillion IPO.

[Visa honkanen @VisaHonkanen]

@KenDBerryMD This was a written examination, you don’t fly an airplane after you have written the answers.

[Visa honkanen @VisaHonkanen]

@pmddomingos I guess Miller has never been, and never would go to a bare knuckle or any other fight. Shouting obscenities is not fighting, it’s just bad behavior.

[Visa honkanen @VisaHonkanen]

@PeterDiamandis This was a paper exercise, a medical student who aces in a written examination, where he can use all the medical books published, is not a doctor.

[Visa honkanen @VisaHonkanen]

Edellinen musta senaattori Missisippistä oli entinen orja vuonna 1881. Scott Colom, a Democrat, Wins Mississippi Senate Seat in Historic Upset https://t.co/wm7SlprD66 via @NYTimes

[Visa honkanen @VisaHonkanen]

@shikamarutsai Great advertising, use our products, or die.

[Visa honkanen @VisaHonkanen]

@MikaelNiku Hienoa,

[Visa honkanen @VisaHonkanen]

@rutgerbregman I guess all we can say is, that all bets are off.

[Visa honkanen @VisaHonkanen]

@hjallisharkimo Kuvasit keskustelun (vuorovaikutus, jossa ihminen voi viisastua), ja puheenpidon eron.

[Visa honkanen @VisaHonkanen]

@lukeburgis Do you mean there is a cult.

[Visa honkanen @VisaHonkanen]

@JuhaniKhr Tein nuorena muun työn lomassa kotikäyntejä (kun piti lyhentää
16 korkoprosentin asuntolainaa 🙂), usein vanhuksia asiakkaina. Ei tullut mieleen, miksi minun pitää raataa viikonloppuna, miksei vain oteta näiltä.

[Visa honkanen @VisaHonkanen]

@EricTopol At the moment it seems, if you are an expert in AI, you suddenly become an expert on every branch of technology and science. If you aim for a IPO of trillions, it is important to tell, that you have a god in your pocket.

[Visa honkanen @VisaHonkanen]

@MTaitokari24994 @realJariLeino @SuviAnneSiimes @pisotalus Hänen koulutuksensa on kohdallaan ihmiselle, jonka tekee terveyspoliittisia päätöksiä.

[Visa honkanen @VisaHonkanen]

@TGrogan268173 @BenBikmanPhD Thanks for your effort against the disinformation spread by people like Bikman. Whether they do it for money, or for clicks, it is deeply unethical.

[Neil Stone @DrNeilStone]

It took the US 35 years to gain measles elimination status

It took just two years of RFK Jr and MAHA to lose it

Truly pathetic stuff

[Visa honkanen @VisaHonkanen]

@thomastaussi On aika unohtaa ilmaston lämpeneminen, ylipainoepidemia ja Ukrainan sota, ja paneuduttava tärkeisiin asioihin, kuten Stokkan jouluikkuna 🙂.