Weather at 86, VIX 16, term structure fat. Cleanest tape in weeks.
I read the rent, not the regime. Top names sit 90-100 IVR, but spreads run +2 to +4pp.
$QCOM widest at +3.7pp. PANW and AKAM behind it.
Green light, thin rent. Sizing up, or staying picky?
https://t.co/o3U5gBBhwV
Weather 89.5 — highest score in a month.
VIX 16, term structure 0.83.
But backwardation share jumped 8.5% → 14.8% in a week.
Top 5 all red-back: $IBM, NOW, MPWR, HON, MCHP.
Take the headline, or check the curve?
Weather 87.4 — biggest one-day jump in 3 weeks.
VIX 17, contango 0.86. Clean on top.
Backwardation share 2.8% to 8.5% under the hood. Top 5 all red or yellow back.
$QCOM leads +4.1pp / IVR 100 / 0.96 RV.
Read the headline, or read the under?
23 straight green days, but the cast keeps changing.
Today: NOW (software), CMI (industrials), $LUV (airlines), EMN (materials), TER (semis).
VIX 17.4, contango 0.84, breadth 67%.
Do you weight the streak, or the mix?
How does a 31 IVR share top-5 space with one at 96?
$VRT — IVR 86, VRP +2.6pp, RV 0.96
SATS — IVR 31, VRP +2.3pp, RV 0.97
Same edge math. Different ranks.
IVR ranks. VRP prices. RV confirms.
What on your screener would IVR alone have missed?
Weather Score 81. 22-session green streak.
Top 5 by composite: $VRT 86 IVR, NOW 96, DDOG 70, SATS 31, STX 94.
That 31 isn't a typo — still in the top 5.
VIX 18, contango 0.86, breadth 73%. Regime's doing the lifting.
Which spot stays on your sheet?
$CIEN tops the IVR board: +17.6pp VRP, IV 103 / RV 86, RV Ratio 0.83.
Biggest gap I've seen this streak.
Catch: earnings is 20 sessions out. Part of that 17pp prices the event, not pure cushion.
Fat spread, or earnings premium in disguise?
Calm tape, thin edges.
VIX 18.4 (+7% on week). Backwardation 1.8%. Weather Score 72 — lowest of the green run.
IVR board: $CIEN +17.6pp / RV 0.83. Next 4 cluster +1.4 to +6.0pp.
One name with edge, four with breadth. Which side fills the watchlist?
$CIEN today: IV 103%, RV 86%. A 17.6pp gap.
That gap is VRP — what the market charges for vol vs what the stock actually does. It's the whole reason selling premium has an edge over time.
No gap, no trade. Wide gap, get paid to be patient.
Find the gap first.
$COHR — top of the IVR board.
IV 30d: 94%. RV 20d: 91%.
VRP: +3.0pp. RV Ratio: 0.97. IVR: 96. Earnings: 89 days.
Absolute IV high. Realized almost as hot. No earnings landmine, but the cushion's thin.
Spread for the regime, or for the math?
Weather Score 78.8. GOOD.
Backwardation collapsed to 2.2% — about 1 in 50 names inverted. Cleanest term structure this month.
VIX 17.26, contango 0.828.
Top of book: $COHR, MU, ON, SNDK. All semis. Spreads 2-3pp.
Take the calm, or hold for wider?
22 straight good days. Score's at 80.
Top 5 by IVR today: $VRT, MRNA, MU, COHR, SNDK. RV ratios cluster 0.95–0.98. Edges thin (+2.7 to +4.3pp).
Regime kind. Names doing the selling keep changing.
Same size as a week ago, or different?
100 IV Rank looks like a green light.
$QCOM 100 IVR: IV 74.6, RV 71.1, VRP +3.5pp.
MU 100 IVR: IV 97.5, RV 93.8, VRP +3.7pp.
Same rank. Different worlds.
Rank says door's open. Math says which side.
Which one would you sell first?
Picked up Product of the Day on @microlaunchHQ
If you've ever wondered whether the Weather Score actually picks better premium-selling setups — good day to kick the tires.
Upvotes welcome. Roasts more welcome.
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Weather Score has 5 components. One is carrying today.
Term structure: 95.6/100. VIX, RV, breadth — middling.
0.839 contango. Only 7.7% in backwardation. Without that curve, today's regime isn't green.
What backwardation level kills a setup for you?